962
FXUS62 KGSP 181823
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure lingers over the area through the weekend with
temperatures steadily warming each day. A cold front will approach
from the west on Monday and could bring some showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages

1) Dry Weather Continues

2) Well Above Normal Temperatures Return

3) Gusty S/SW Winds Expected Each Afternoon/Early Evening

Upper ridging will gradually build northward into the region while
the southwestern periphery of a sfc ridge lingers over the Southeast
through the near term. This pattern will suppress convective
chances, allowing dry conditions to continue. Building heights
combined with increasing S/SW`ly flow will allow highs to end up
around 8-10 degrees above normal this afternoon and around 10-15
degrees above normal Saturday afternoon. Temps today will climb into
the upper 70s to lower 80s across the mountain valleys and east of
the mountains. Highs on Saturday will be even warmer, climbing into
the mid 80s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains.
Breezy S/SW winds have developed this afternoon but will gradually
taper off by early this evening. However, wind speeds will remain
elevated overnight, and with cloud cover expected to increase
overnight, lows will end up ~10-15 degrees above normal. Breezy SW
winds will return by late Saturday morning or early Saturday
afternoon, lingering through the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM EDT Friday: No major changes to the short term
forecast.  Southerly return flow will remain in place on the
western fringe of a surface high centered off the Atlantic coast
on Sunday, fueling a gradual increase in moisture and according
weak WAA regime...while ridging is maintained aloft.  Little in
the way of any rain chances Sunday thanks to generally stable
conditions leftover from the high`s influence.  Temps will climb
into the mid-80s - some 10-12 degrees above normal - on Sunday
afternoon...before falling into the lower 60s Sunday night.

On Monday, the area will remain dry most of the day, as an
anemic frontal circulation approaches from the west.  As its
supporting upper trough pivots northeastward up and over the
deteriorating ridge, the front will become disconnected from any
notable synoptic forcing, and will encounter only modest moisture
in the Carolinas...so models aren`t enthused, and neither is this
forecaster; it looks like a low-impact system all things considered.
The front is unlikely to completely cross the area through the end
of Monday, and may even stall out entirely over the area through
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 207 PM EDT Friday: By Tuesday, most guidance is in agreement
that the front will be laid out more or less east-to-west across
our southern zones.  Some instability may manage to develop on the
south side of the front Tuesday afternoon, so token thunder chances
remain in the forecast...but severe risk looks minimal at this time.

The remainder of the week will see the slow deterioration of the
front, allowing for diurnal showers and thunder each afternoon.
By Friday, deterministic guidance variously depicts either a closed
surface low or open wave drifting across the lower Midwest and
allowing what remains of the front to reactivate and lift north.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds will remain SSW/SW through the 18Z
period with low-end gusts developing each afternoon before tapering
off each evening. Dry conditions will continue with periodic rounds
of cirrus expected. Some of the guidance has been backing off on the
low stratus potential east of the mountains, with the exception of
the I-77 corridor. If low stratus does manage to develop, it will be
brief. Thus, only have a TEMPO at KCLT for SCT MVFR from 10Z-13Z.

Outlook: Dry and VFR continues through the weekend. Rain and
associated restrictions return early next week and may linger
through much of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AR