888
FXUS62 KGSP 191800
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure persists through the forecast period. A gradual
warming trend through the weekend, with above normal temperatures by
mid week. Cool down possible by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 pm EDT Saturday: An upper ridge along the East Coast will
weaken through the period, with a ridge over the central Conus
becoming more predominant...downstream of Four Corners upper low.
The center of sprawling surface high pressure may retrograde a bit
as a result, but will retain its grip on our forecast area through
the period. This will result in continued dry weather, while the air
mass associated with the high will continue to modify/warm. Light
winds and clear skies will result in another good radiational
cooling event tonight...but temps are expected to be a couple of
degrees (or so) warmer than this morning (still several degrees
below normal), meaning that frost is unlikely in areas where the
growing season has not ended. The warming trend continues into
Sunday, with maxes expected to warm to several degrees above climo.
The warmer conditions will result in relatively low RH during the
afternoon, but minimums are expected to be in the 25-30% range,
which along with light winds should preclude significant Fire Wx
concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Saturday...The pattern remains dominated by a sub/trop
ridge to the west supporting broad sfc hipres at the sfc thru the
period. A very dry and dense airmass will be hard to dislodge which
will maintain dry LCLs and no great upper level moist advection.
Thus, little in the way of cloud cover is anticipated allowing good
warming conds and a modifying bndry layer producing abv normal highs
and near normal lows each day. No great fog threat each morning as
drainage flows will remain relatively warm, except perhaps across
the far srn NC mtn valleys. All in all, very pleasant Fall conds are
in store each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...No major changes were made to the previous
fcst. Still expect dominant stacked ridging Wed leading to dry conds
thru the column, while a a distinct h5 s/w advances toward the area
Thu into Fri. This upper wave will have little llvl moisture to work
with and in fact the ECMWF/GFS guidance only suggest a few light
showers possible across the NC/TN line and NE GA by Fri. This
possibility has gone up slightly from the previous solns, yet has
been given little weight in the current fcst process due to the
brief nature and low QPF magnitude. Temps remain a couple cats abv
normal Wed/Thu then likely drop back to normal levels Fri as a
reinforcing cP airmass is progged to mix in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR is forecast at the TAF sites through the
period. As was the case this morning, fog/low stratus is likely to
redevelop in the mountain valleys early Sunday, but is not expected
to impact KAVL. Winds will generally favor light NE through the
period.

Outlook: Sprawling sfc high pressure will keep dry/VFR conditions
over the area thru the middle of next week. Some mtn valley fog/low
stratus may develop each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL