874
FXUS62 KGSP 251720
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
120 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The severe threat remains low through Monday before increasing
ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening, possibly
lingering into Wednesday. A warming trend is expected through
early next week, with slightly cooler highs returning behind the
front mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: The severe threat remains low through Monday before
increasing ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening,
possibly lingering into Wednesday. A warming trend is expected
through early next week, with slightly cooler highs returning behind
the front mid to late week.

A large upper anticyclone meanders over the western and central
United States while upper troughing remains the dominate feature
over the eastern United states through next weekend. This will
essentially keep the Southeast in a "Ring of Fire" pattern through
much of the forecast period as storm complexes round the eastern
periphery of the upper anticyclone. With the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms expected to be less Sunday into Monday, the severe
threat should remain low. A few strong,sub-severe storms are
possible each day during peak heating and an isolated severe storm
or two cannot entirely ruled out. The severe threat ramps up Tuesday
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Deep layer shear
Tuesday afternoon and evening will be impressive for this time of
year, ranging from 30-35+ kts. This amount of shear combined with
surface instability ranging from roughly 1,800-2,500 J/kg Tuesday
afternoon/evening (per the 06Z global models) will bring a higher
concern for severe thunderstorms. The Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook
showing a Slight Risk in place across much of western North Carolina
(outside the southern NC mountains) and a sliver of the northern SC
Upstate appears warranted. Although our forecast area is not
highlighted in a severe risk for Day 5 (Wednesday), depending on the
exact track and evolution of the MCS ahead of the front, the severe
threat could linger into at least early Wednesday. However,
confidence is low at this time. Damaging wind gusts would be the
main potential hazard with any severe storms that develop through
Wednesday. Brief drying may develop on Thursday behind the front
before shower and thunderstorm chances return starting Friday as the
front stalls over the Southeast.

A warming trend is expected through Tuesday ahead of the front with
slightly cooler highs returning behind the front mid to late week.
Tuesday still looks to be the hottest day of the week with highs
ranging from the low to mid 90s and heat indices climbing into the
upper 90s to lower 100s east of the mountains. However, confidence
on highs on Tuesday is low as the MCS could act to limit afternoon
temperatures but this will be highly dependent on the exact timing
of the MCS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Restrictions have been slow to lift with
mostly IFR to MVFR noted across the terminals as of 18Z.
Restrictions will continue to gradually lift back to VFR levels over
the next few hours. Have some scattered SHRA floating around, mainly
impacting the SC terminals as of 18Z. TSRA may develop at KGSP and
KGMU this afternoon, if cigs lift within the next few hours, so went
with PROB30s for these terminals. The rest of the terminals should
remain dry through this evening but SHRA chances may return
overnight into early Sunday morning, mainly across the NC terminals.
Confidence on timing for afternoon TSRA today and overnight SHRA is
low as high-res models are not in great agreement regarding bot
coverage of activity and timing of activity. Conditions will
gradually deteriorate again overnight into daybreak Sunday with
mainly MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys expected but LIFR restrictions are
possible at KAVL and KHKY. Restrictions will once again be slow to
improve throughout Sunday morning. Winds will be mostly calm to
light and VRB through the period.

Outlook: Drier conditions expected Sunday into Monday, with only
isolated TSRA expected each afternoon/early evening. Strong to
severe thunderstorms as well as breezy SW winds are possible Tuesday
afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front. There strong to severe
storm threat could linger through Tuesday night or early Wednesday
but confidence is low at this time. Low stratus and/or fog will be
possible each morning, mainly in the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR