860
FXUS62 KGSP 161750
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
150 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Another Heat Advisory issued for Monday.

Aviation forecast was updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Heat Advisories continue for this afternoon and again on
Monday for Upstate SC, northeast Georgia, and the Charlotte Metro
area. Hot and humid weather continues for most of the week, with
triple digit heat index likely over the low terrain each afternoon.
2. Diurnal convection develops each afternoon this week, with
some strong to severe storms as well as isolated nuisance flooding
possible each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Heat Advisories continue for this afternoon and again
on Monday for Upstate SC, northeast Georgia, and the Charlotte Metro
area. Hot and humid weather continues for most of the week, with
triple digit heat index likely over the low terrain each afternoon.

Stout subtropical ridging slowly retrogrades through the period, but
not fast enough to significantly lower heights and thicknesses until
later in the week or next weekend. With the continued heat and
humidity, another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday. There
may be enough of a break in the heat or humidity to limit the extent
of the Advisories for Tuesday and Wednesday, but that`s uncertain at
this time.

The guidance continues to suggest a trof forming over the eastern
CONUS for next weekend which would allow temps to drop to near or
even below normal.


Key message 2: Diurnal convection develops each afternoon this week,
with some strong to severe storms as well as isolated nuisance
flooding possible each day.

The moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across the area
through at least the middle of the week. With steep low level lapse
rates, high DCAPE and PW values, wet microbursts will be possible
with any storm that can grow tall enough. Severe storm coverage
could be higher of Monday with an increase in bulk shear potentially
leading to some organization.

By Thursday or Friday, a trof developing over the eastern CONUS
could bring a period of more widespread daily convection as a series
of shortwaves and a slow moving cold front impact the area into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection more isolated this afternoon. Have
PROB30s at the NC sites where chances are higher. May eventually end
up needing a mention at the SC sites but will take a wait and see
stance there. Mainly cirrus overnight outside of another round of
mountain valley fog, and fog at KHKY. Generally light and variable
winds this afternoon, stronger NNW wind at KAVL. Light and variable
to calm wind overnight becoming W to NW on Monday.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated flight
restrictions will be possible each afternoon. Low stratus and fog
will be possible each morning, especially in the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ070>072-082.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ070>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.

&&

$$

RWH