773
FXUS62 KGSP 051141
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
641 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will move off to the east by the middle part of the
day. After that, precipitation chances and below-normal temperatures
linger through the first part of next week. Temperatures trend
back toward normal by the middle of next week. Another cold front
may bring precipitation back to the area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6:15 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Wintry precip expected across portions of the NC mountains and
possibly into portions of the NC Foothills this morning. A mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible in the mountains, with
freezing rain possible in the Foothills.

2) A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning for
portions of the NC mountains (no changes from previous fcst).

3) Precip will change over to rain and should taper off by late
this morning, however cold and cloudy conditions will continue
thru the day.

The center of a 1030 mb sfc high will track into Upstate NY and
weaken as it reaches the New England coast later today. This high
will produce a hybrid cold air damming wedge into the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, cyclogenesis will occur along the central Gulf Coast and
increase isentropic lift along a stalled frontal boundary draped
over the Southeast. The low will quickly track east along a baro-
clinic zone to the Carolina Coast overnight and into the morning.
Forcing still doesn`t look very strong, so QPF is expected to be
light, but coverage still looks broad across our CWA. Overall, low-
level thicknesses have been trending a bit warmer across most of our
northern zones, so it remains to be seen if we end up getting much
in the way of snow over those zones. Regardless, a warm nose will
develop from the SW by daybreak and should change precip over to
mostly rain and/or freezing rain. No significant changes were seen
in the latest guidance wrt sfc temps or QPF, so the current Winter
Wx Advisory still looks good. Low temps overnight will lock into
the upper 20s to lower 30s in the high elevations and along the
eastern NC Escarpment, with mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

By this afternoon, the upper shortwave will exit to our east and
take the better isentropic lift with it. Sfc low pressure will begin
to deepen near the Outer Banks, but a residual CAD wedge will likely
linger thru the rest of the day. Precip chances taper off from NW to
SE later this morning, but low clouds and fog will persist, keeping
temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of our fcst area this aftn.
All but the highest peaks/ridges of the northern NC mtns are expected
to get above freezing later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1247 AM Friday:

Key Messages:

1) Some light rain possible again Saturday, mainly south of I-85.

2) Temps remain below normal.

3) Another chance of light precip Sunday night and Monday morning,
with some wintry types possible, mainly over the mountains.

The latest model guidance continues a trend away from precip on
Saturday as more of the region will be on the wrong side on a jet
axis streaming overhead. Areas to the south of I-85 might still
have enough favorable jet dynamics from a broad right entrance
region to allow for some light precip to develop, but it`s really
only the Canadian that has the northern edge of the light precip
far enough north to affect the southern parts of the forecast
area. The rest of guidance, including most of the GEFS members,
have the northern edge to the south. With that in mind, I expect
the model blend to continue to trend toward a drier day, but still
probably cloudy with lots of high jet streak cloudiness streaming
overhead. Temps should stay below normal for the weekend.

Sunday poses another problem. The GFS indicates another jet streak
moving out of the very broad upper trof and streaming overhead again
Sunday, with additional upper divergence. Another ill-defined short
wave and sfc reflection will also move along a stalled boundary
well to our south. There`s actually a bit more support from the
synoptic scale models and especially from the GEFS to introduce
another chance of light precip across the I-85 corridor and south
during the day, but the NBM hasn`t caught up to that idea yet. The
guidance suggests a trend toward more clouds and increasing precip
chances over the southeastern half, but fortunately that would be
all rain as thicknesses and profiles don`t support anything else.

Which brings us to Sunday night and Monday. One final (and stronger)
short wave comes around the bottom of the upper trof to our west
during that time and should be the agent to swing the trof axis
across the region on Monday. This wave looks to track farther
north and is more dynamic than the ones over the weekend. There
are timing differences that come into play between the arrival of
the forcing and moisture associated with the wave and a surge of
cold air from the north that would influence the precip-types. As it
stands right now, the wave gets here before the cold air with enough
moisture to be wrung out into some light precip developing W-to-E,
but wintry types are mainly limited to the high elevations and
maybe the I-40 corridor east of the mtns. But, some light precip,
in the form of snow, would be within the realm of possibilities
if the short wave is delayed and the cold air arrives first. A
few GEFS members show that scenario. Either way, in the forecast,
the precip types were limited to rain/snow based on consideration
of thermal profiles in the NAM and GFS. The QPF looks light,
so even places that got some light snow, it would be sub-advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1253 AM Friday: A very broadly cyclonic upper flow on Tuesday
looks to oscillate with brief amplification as nrn stream waves
periodically pass by to our north. Confidence in the timing of these
waves is weak. We should at least start out with a period of fair
weather Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures attempting a warming
trend back toward normal for mid-week. The first clipper-like nrn
stream wave may pass by Wednesday night and push a boundary across
the region, resulting in some low-end precip chances, but outside
the mtns even a slight chance looks like a stretch. In reality,
probably only the TN border zones stand much of a chance for an
elevation-dependent rain/snow of low amount. Another wave may
dig the upper trof again Thursday night/Friday, perhaps, but
this timing is even more uncertain. For that reason, we carry
only unmentionable precip probs in spite of what the new GFS
shows. Either way, temps remain on the cool side of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect restrictions to persist thru most
of the 12z taf period. A broad area of sct light to moderate pre-
cipitation continues to move over our eastern and southern zones
as we approach sunrise this morning. The precip should move east
of our area over the next few hrs, but I kept a PROB30 for RA at
most terminals thru 18z. At KAVL, the PROB30 only goes thru 15z.
Deeper moisture is expected to linger over the area today/tonight
with cigs remaining IFR to LIFR thru most of the taf period. Visby
is more likely to remain in the MVFR range today and then go IFR
to possibly LIFR later tonight with light to calm winds. Otherwise,
winds will be light thru the period and generally out of the NE out-
side of the mtns. Expect winds to go light and VRB to calm at most
sites later tonight/early Saturday. At KAVL, winds will remain light
and favor a S/SE direction today, going calm later this evening.

Outlook: A brief break in restrictions is expected Saturday aftn
thru early Sunday. Another storm system may bring more precip and
associated restrictions Sunday into Monday. Drying high pressure
is expected to spread back over the area by early Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ048-052-053-059-063-064.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT