615
FXUS62 KGSP 111048
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
648 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A more typical summertime pattern kicks off the new week as daily
chances for afternoon thunderstorms return. Temperatures remain at
or below normal, but gradually warm through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM: Bands of showers will move northeast across the area
this morning in southeasterly low level upslope flow and upglide.
Patchy fog continues as well.

The weak damming high moves off shore through the period with a
deepening moist southeasterly flow developing. This will keep
upslope flow and isentropic lift across the area along with
deepening moisture. Expect bands of showers to move northeast across
the area through the day. Despite the southeasterly flow, clouds and
precip will keep highs a few degrees cooler than on Sunday. This
will keep CAPE muted as well. Still, a few TSRA will be possible
given the weak instability and lift. Brief heavy rainfall will be
possible in any storms or strong showers that develop. Still, the
overall flood threat is low. These conditions continue overnight
with similar clouds and shower activity. Lows will be around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 AM EDT Monday: Not a whole lot of change with the short
term as the typical summertime pattern continues. Synoptically, a
trough over the central CONUS gets reabsorbed into the general flow
aloft. By midweek, the southern CONUS is under very broad and weak
flow. For the southeast including the CWA, high pressure off the
coastline allow for continued moisture advection as surface winds
become S/SW. Guidance keeps most of the south in a broad warm sector
for the short term and into the next with PWATs well at or above the
2" mark. Thankfully, height rises are not as stout, keeping the
temperatures from skyrocketing. Higher dewpoints, but temps remain
closer to normal. Additionally, with the added moisture and
increased instability, the chances for daily showers and
thunderstorms also goes up. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons have
categorical PoPs (70-85%) across the mountains and a chance
elsewhere. Guidance keeps the QPF response rather low, which is to
be expected for diurnally driven convection. However, any areas that
receive multiple showers and thunderstorms could have an isolated
risk of flash flooding. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Monday: For the extended period, there isn`t a lot
of variation from the previous forecast. The regions till remains
under broad flow as the jet stream remains further north. By
Thursday, guidance suggests slight height rises, which allow for the
temps to increase a bit with heat indices reaching the low triple
digits again, but only in a few isolated locations south of I-85.
Guidance quickly lets off the gas for increasing heights and
retreats from any reoccurring heat wave. So all in all, no strong
signal for ridiculously hot temps or reaching any Heat Advisory
criteria in the foreseeable forecast period. Meanwhile, this broad
flow aloft keeps the area in the typical summertime pattern with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
period. The CWA remains in this open and very broad warm sector
engulfing the south. For this, PoPs are more consistent and remain
around chance (40-65%) for the mountains and slight chance (25-35%)
elsewhere each afternoon through the end of the week. QPF is minimal
but areas that receive multiple showers or thunderstorms could see
an isolated flash flood risk.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR to IFR cigs continue across the area
through the morning. Vsby restrictions generally limited to the
showers moving NE across the area. E to SE winds expected through
the day. As the boundary layer deepens and the wedge breaks down,
the lowest deck should scatter out and leave us with bkn MVFR
ceilings at most terminals. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible,
but uncertainty in timing and coverage is enough to keep out of the
TAFs at this time. IFR cigs return overnight with continued
intermittent showers and vsby restrictions. Winds become light and
variable.

Outlook: Daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions return across the area each day this week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RWH