754
FXUS62 KGSP 212005
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will control our weather through the weekend
and into next week. A warming trend will begin this weekend that
should bring temperatures back above normal early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 142 PM Friday: Sunny and cool for the rest of the afternoon,
with winds continuing to slowly diminish. The forecast was still
running close to the observations, so no significant changes
were made.

The weather should be fair and quiet over the next 24 hours, and
not quite as cool as the past 24 hours. A continental sfc high over
the mid-MS Valley region this afternoon should get pushed overhead
tonight with a flat upper ridge aloft, and then off to the east on
Saturday as a dampening short wave approaches from the west. Expect
good radiational cooling conditions overnight with clear sky and
wind going calm or light/variable, but the modifying air mass will
keep low temps no colder than this past morning, and probably a
few degrees warmer. That, combined with the light wind, should
keep our apparent temps far enough above Advisory criteria. The
approaching short wave on Saturday will be moisture-starved with
relatively weak forcing, so the main influence will be to increase
the mid/upper clouds for the afternoon hours. That means high
temps will probably only be able to climb five degrees at best
above the highs today. The lack of warmup will help to keep the
RH from bottoming out in the afternoon, and probably keep it in
the upper 20 percents.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Fri: A mid-level shortwave trough that is currently
over the Central Plains this afternoon is forecast to track
eastward, passing through the region Saturday evening. There is
a surface reflection of the disturbance as a weak cold front
that moves through the area at night. This system is moisture
starved and will provide little impact to our sensible weather
aside from some high clouds streaming through.

Surface high pressure builds in quickly behind the front late
Saturday night and remain overhead through Sunday. Temperatures
will continue to moderate with highs during the afternoon
reaching the mid to upper 50s outside of the mountains.

Another upper shortwave trough over the Four Corners region of the
SW CONUS will move eastward, tracking along the Gulf Coast region.
This system looks to tap into some Gulf moisture, but it is expected
to pass far enough south to keep the forecast area dry Sunday night
and Monday (PoPs are less than 5%). Southerly return flow around the
departing high will yield warmer conditions with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM Fri:  A dry weather pattern continues into at least the
first half of the week as the region remains situated in mainly
zonal flow near the base of the large-scale trough that is
positioned near the US-Canada border. At the surface, the next in a
series of weak cold fronts will approach the area from the west on
Tuesday. Backed flow ahead of it will allow the warm sector to
become even further established. Highs in the upper 60s and lower
70s are forecast for Tuesday, which will likely be the warmest day
of the week.

The aforementioned dry cold front moves through late Tuesday,
followed by high pressure returning for Wednesday. Post-frontal CAA
is meager, so temperatures on Wednesday should only be a couple of
degrees cooler than Tuesday (but still around 10 degrees above
normal).

The high should quickly retreat off the eastern seaboard by late
Wednesday in response to yet another cold front approaching from
west. The system looks more potent than its predecessors and should
provide our next chance for precipitation with it. Cluster analysis
of the LREF shows mainly a timing disagreement among the global
ensemble members. Low chance PoPs exist in the forecast from late
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening owing to the
uncertainty in timing of the front and not because an extended
period of rain is expected.

Colder air returns behind the cold front, but it will lack the true
arctic cold air like yesterday`s fropa. Temperatures may sufficiently
cool to produce snow showers in NW flow in the mountains near the
NC-TN border Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the
period. Mostly NW winds, with some remaining gusts across the mtns,
will continue to gradually diminish, and should go light/variable
at most places around sunset. On Saturday, some high clouds will
start to filter in from the west in the mid/late morning. Wind
will come back light S/SW at that time, with the sfc high moving
off the Carolina coast.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will linger into early next week with
VFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values have bottomed out in the 20%-30% range this afternoon
across northeast Georgia despite cool temperatures. Fuel
moistures continue to dry, but light winds will preclude a need
for a RFW. The fire danger statement remains in effect for the
rest of the afternoon.

Similar conditions are expected on Saturday with light winds and
dry conditions. Min RH values should be a tad higher than today
with the min RH for most locations forecast to be in 25-35%
range.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ026-
     028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JK