822
FXUS62 KGSP 070216
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1016 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several storm systems moving across the area will allow for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the weekend with a few
possibly becoming strong to severe, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Unsettled weather will stick around through the
middle of next week as a cold front stalls in/near the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Friday: A few clusters of thunderstorms continue
to form and slowly drift east across mainly the Foothills to near
I-85. This activity has been producing some strong wind gusts,
but so far, just sub-severe. The environment is still moderately
unstable, with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, but with increasing
CIN. Overall, expect storms to weaken as they continue to track
east, but some residual showers may reach the Charlotte area in
the next couple hours. Meanwhile, upstream over central TN is
another cluster of storms that will approach the NC mountains
overnight. Still have a chc PoP for this weakening activity,
but based on trends, the rain may not make it. Otherwise, Plenty
of convective debris cloudiness will linger thru the night,
which should limit fog potential. Lows will be about 5 degrees
above normal.

Uncertainty regarding the severe weather potential during the day
tomorrow is high. The latest CAMs depict the region in a relative
lull in convection during the daytime in between tonight`s MCS
exiting the area in the morning and the next one remaining upstream
of us. This would greatly limit our storm coverage. Similar to
today, a favorable wet microburst environment will allow for
storms that do develop to be capable of producing locally strong
to severe winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Continues into Sunday with a Brief Lull on
Monday

2) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible Sunday but Confidence is Low

3) Breezy Winds and Cooler Temps Return Sunday with Lighter Winds
and Warmer Temps for Monday

A cold front approaches out of the west Saturday night into early
Sunday before pushing across the forecast area late Sunday into
Sunday night. The front will wash out over the area on Monday before
another cold front approaches out of the west Monday into Monday
night. This will periodic shower and thunderstorm chances around
through the period, although a brief lull is expected on Monday. 12Z
CAMs are split on whether another MCS will push across the area
early Sunday as the most of the CAMS keep mostly dry conditions
around for most locations while the NAMNest depicts an MCS tracking
over the forecast area during the morning hours on Sunday. Thus,
confidence on PoPs is low for Sunday morning. The 12Z NAMNest shows
redevelopment of convection Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of
the front but with the rest of the CAMs not going out this far just
yet, and with global model guidance not being in agreement regarding
the coverage of convection, confidence on PoPs (and the severe
threat) remains low for Sunday. With 20-30 kts of deep layer shear
and up to 1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE developing during peak heating on
Sunday, a few strong to severe storms are possible. The main hazards
with any severe storms that develop are damaging wind gusts and
isolated large hail. The entire forecast area is highlighted in a
Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms on Sunday and this appears
warranted based on the expected parameters. We should get a better
idea of how convection will play out on Sunday as the 18Z and 00Z
CAMs come in, as they will go out past 12Z Sunday. Global guidance
is in fairly decent agreement that a lull in convection can be
expected on Monday so capped PoPs to chance for now. Global guidance
does show the potential for an uptick in PoPs Monday night but
confidence remains low as the latest ECMWF and Canadian have mostly
dry conditions while the latest GFS shows precip across the entire
forecast area. Thus, capped PoPs to chance through the end of the
short term. Slight cooler highs and breezy winds return Sunday
before lighter winds and warmer temps develop Monday. Highs on
Sunday will end up near to a few degrees below normal, becoming a
few degrees above normal on Monday. Lows each night will remain a
few to several degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Returns Tuesday and Lingers through the
Rest of the Workweek

2) Near to Just Below Normal Highs Return Tuesday and Wednesday

3) Slightly Above Normal Highs develop Thursday and Friday

The aforementioned cold front in the near term will push across the
forecast area late Tuesday into early Wednesday bringing better
shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast area. The front
looks to stall over the central/eastern Carolinas Thursday into
Friday keeping unsettled weather around. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible each day, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the main
hazards with any severe storms that manage to develop. Highs will
trend cooler and near to just below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
before warming back up and trending slightly above normal Thursday
and Friday. Lows through the period will remain a few to several
degrees above normal through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
moving into the mountains and adjacent foothills. Some of this
activity will likely survive east into the Piedmont later this
evening, thus will go with TEMPOs and/or PROB30s to cover timing
of expected impacts. KCLT has the lowest chances, so will go with
PROB30 there from 03z-06z. Convection should wane overnight, but
with some lingering mid and high clouds. Guidance doesn`t have much
fog or low stratus development, but given this evening`s rainfall,
cannot rule out patchy fog and/or stratus. Confidence is too low
for TAF mention at any of the sites for now.  West winds will
increase to 10 kt Saturday morning. Gusts to 20 kt is expected to
develop by mid to late morning (14Z-15Z). The convection-allowing
models continue to show little convection Saturday aftn, so have
pushed PROB30s to 21z or later.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...ARK/JK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ARK