106
FXUS62 KGSP 230511
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1211 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure remains through the weekend and into next week. A
warming trend begins this weekend that move temperatures back above
normal early next week. Next chance of rain is possible by
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1205 AM EST Sunday: Temperatures early on were slower to
fall as a stratus deck took its time to clear out of the area. Now
that skies have become clear, temperatures should continue to
decrease. Small adjustment for this, but generally the quiet
forecast remains on track.

Otherwise, the upper shortwave will move off the Atlantic Coast
tonight and tomorrow with relatively zonal upper flow in its wake.
By the end of the near-term period, another embedded upper short-
wave will approach our area from the west. At the sfc, broad high
pressure will linger over our area thru the period, although it
does weaken as Sunday wears on and another sfc low develops over
the northern Gulf and tracks eastward. Nonetheless, the period
should be dry with light winds and mostly clear skies Sunday
morning and afternoon. Temperatures will continue to rebound
on Sunday with highs expected to approach normal values for
late Feb, but still remain a few degrees below. Any fire wx
concerns should be tempered by slightly higher dewpts and light
winds during peak heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EST Saturday: Amplified upper ridging across the
western CONUS will help to carve out a downstream shortwave trough
over the Gulf Coast as it will be in the process of shifting
into the eastern Gulf of America at the beginning portions of
the forecast period. The shortwave will traverse across the Gulf
Coast/southeastern CONUS Monday into Monday night before shifting
offshore over the western Atlantic by Tuesday. Deeper moisture and
overall QPF response continues to remain south of I-20 and should
keep the CFWA dry as weak high pressure remains in place to the
north/northeast. Broad cyclonic flow aloft is expected to settle
in over the northern half of the CONUS by Tuesday as a series of
embedded shortwaves resides in the base of the mean flow as a very
strong closed upper low pivots north of the Hudson Bay.

The first shortwave looks to move across the Upper Great Lakes
and northeastern CONUS Monday night into Tuesday. In clipper-like
fashion, QPF response will reside in the vicinity of the parent
low, but all model guidance keep any precip north of the CFWA. In
this case, the sensible weather for the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia is forecasted to remain dry in a relatively
unsettled pattern to the north and south. Temperatures will be
on a warming trend Monday into Tuesday as highs Monday will be ~5
degrees above normal, while Tuesday may be the warmest day of the
week with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. Increased fire
danger may arrive early next week as dewpoints don`t change much,
but temperatures will increase leading to lower RH values and allow
for fuels to dry as well. Winds shouldn`t be factor as any gusts
that develop will be on the low end.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday: Another amplified upper ridge will
shift over the West Coast Wednesday, which will help to sharpen
the cyclonic flow aloft and create a longwave trough over the
Central Plains. The upper trough and an attendant frontal boundary
will shift eastward and encroach the region later Wednesday into
Thursday. Model guidance are in decent agreement with bringing
in our next chance for mentionable PoPs on Thursday as the cold
front swings across the area. The better forcing for ascent and
overall dynamics will reside to the north, closer to the parent
low. QPF response remains light as the front moves into a relatively
moisture-starved environment. Not much change in the airmass behind
the front as only a brief shot of height falls will be in store,
leading to temperatures being near-normal to end the workweek before
a gradual rebound occurs by D7 as weak upper troughiness remains
in place. Can`t rule out a few northwest flow snow showers behind
the front along the TN border, but little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. Temperatures are expected to be 5-10
degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday before returning to
near-normal values by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail once again across all
terminals through the TAF period. Light winds overnight become VRB
to calm through the forecast time. KAVL remains N/NW before becoming
VRB during the afternoon. Cigs remains mostly SKC but a few higher
cirrus clouds could provide SCT Sunday afternoon. No restrictions
expected at this time.

Outlook: Dry high pressure lingers through at least mid next week
with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...CP/JPT
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...CP