Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
365 FXUS62 KGSP 122333 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 733 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low will slowly drift north along the East Coast through the first half of the week. The low will then drift offshore by midweek, as dry high pressure builds in from the west and brings above normal temperatures to our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 647 PM EDT Sunday: No major changes this evening. Latest available surface data places the coastal low just south of Cape Lookout, and edging slowly northeastward. Generally dry across the western Carolinas, though as expected, some very light rain has developed along I-77, where remnant rain bands have made it inland. Otherwise...with cloudiness struggling to developing west of the southern Blue Ridge, locally dense NC mtn valley fog is expected to develop by early Sunday morning. Expect continued weakening/backing of the mean flow atop the Southern Appalachians on Monday. Within the deep layered dry air, sunshine is on tap with afternoon maximums a few deg F above climo. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Sunday: Quiet weather is expected for the short term, as the coastal low slowly drifts east offshore and warm and dry high pressure builds into the region from the west. Skies should be clear to mostly clear thru the period, with some potential for mountain valley fog both nights. Temps will be about 5-10 degrees above normal. Lows mainly in the mid to upper 40s in the mountains and lower to mid 50s in the Piedmont. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s in the mountains and upper 70s to lower 80s in the Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM Sunday: The upper pattern be very amplified at the start of the medium range, with deep trough over the Intermountain West, a ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a digging upper low over New England. The models are in good agreement that a dry backdoor cold front will slip thru the forecast area Wednesday. This will usher in slightly cooler temps for Thursday and Friday. Little to no cloud cover looks to continue, with temps close to normal. A slight rebound in temps is expected Saturday as the upper ridge axis begins to shift east to the East Coast. Low level flow will turn out of the SW and a front will approach from the west. The front may bring moisture back to the forecast area by Sunday, but the 12z deterministic guidance remains in disagreement on the timing and amount of moisture tap out of the Gulf. The latest National Blend of Models has 30-40% PoPs in the mountains and slight chc (15-25%) for most of the Piedmont on Sunday. Highs back into the upper 70s to near 80 in the Piedmont, and lows mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Gusty NNE winds are beginning to subside, and should taper off gently through midnight. MVFR ceilings observed east of I-77, but have not quite made it to CLT; expect the ~3.5kft ceilings there to gradually fall over the next few hours, into MVFR territory overnight...before lifting again during the wee hours of the morning. MVFR may also make it to HKY for part of the night. Expect all terminals to return to VFR conditions before sunrise, as drying in the low- and mid-levels should clear out the lowest clouds. Could see MVFR or even IFR vis and cig restrictions in the mountain valleys...so 2SM mentioned at KAVL. VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the forecast, with SCT stratocu again on Monday, but no rain. Lighter N/NE winds expected again tomorrow. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist thru at least the middle of next week, although there will be some potential for mountain valley low stratus and/or fog each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CSH/MPR SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...MPR