837
FXUS62 KGSP 292320
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
720 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger through early
this evening, mainly across western North Carolina. The window
for severe storms to develop is rapidly closing as we get closer
to sunset, so confidence on any severe storms developing remains
very low. Dry conditions will briefly return behind the front
this evening into late tonight before a round of rain develops
early Thursday morning.
2. Another low pressure system develops to our south late
Friday into Saturday, bringing more rainfall to the western
Carolinas. Freezing temperatures are possible over portions of
the NC mountains early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger through
early this evening, mainly across western North Carolina. The window
for severe storms to develop is rapidly closing as we get closer to
sunset, so confidence on any severe storms developing remains very
low. Dry conditions will briefly return behind the front this
evening into late tonight before a round of rain develops early
Thursday morning.

Despite decent shear and instability in place this evening, storms
are not doing much with their environment. Thus, confidence on the
severe threat remains very low. The low-end severe threat will
diminish around sunset.

Another MCS will make a run for the forecast area early Thursday
morning. CAMs remain inconsistent run to run as to how far north the
MCS will track, so confidence on PoPs along and north of I-40 is
very low. Not expecting any severe weather with this system as we
will be relatively stable behind the departing cold front, thunder
might even be hard to come by. This will be yet another shot at
beneficial rainfall. The MCS should exit the GSP CWA by mid-morning
Thursday. Winds will remain elevated across the mountains tonight
into Thursday but speeds will be lighter compared to today. Highs on
Thursday will end up near to just below normal.


Key message 2: Another low pressure system develops to our south
late Friday into Saturday, bringing more rainfall to the western
Carolinas. Freezing temperatures are possible over portions of
the NC mountains early Sunday.

Relatively weak sfc high pressure will have spread over our area
by early Friday as low-level winds veer to N/NE. As the day wears
on, the high will weaken, sfc winds swing around to SLY, and cloud
cover steadily increases from the south and west. This will help
keep temperatures below climatology on Friday, with highs in the
low 70s outside the mtns.

Active weather will return Friday night into Saturday morning.
By late Friday, the long-range guidance continues to expand a
broad baroclinic zone across much of the deep south ahead of an
upper shortwave ejecting out of west Texas. The associated sfc
frontal zone appears to remain south of our fcst area thru the
weekend, with the bulk of the latest guidance now depicting
cyclogenesis over the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle early Sat.
This is expected to produce a round of moist upglide across the
western Carolinas which should result in more widespread showers
across our area from early Sat morning into Sat evening. Overall
precip amounts have trended down compared to the previous fcst,
but we are still expecting at least 1" roughly along and south
of I-85 and approximately 0.5 to 0.8" north of I-85. In addition,
some amount of elevated instability may be present over our area
Sat afternoon/evening, but any thunder/lightning would likely be
isolated.

Behind this system, cool/dry high pressure will spread back over
the region Sat night and Sunday. Low temperatures near freezing
are expected Sunday morning over the NC mountains. Thus, Frost
Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings may be needed for portions of
the mountains. Otherwise, we should remain mostly dry thru early
next week with temperatures steadily warming back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR across the terminals as of 00Z. Isolated
SHRA and TSRA are tracking across the western Carolinas this evening
and should push east of the terminals over the next few hours.
Confidence on any of this activity tracking directly over a terminal
remains very low so started out the TAF period dry. VFR and dry
through late tonight before a round of SHRA (and possibly MVFR
restrictions) develops early Thursday morning. Maintained PROB30s
across all terminals but confidence remains very low for PROB30s at
KAVL and KHKY as guidance has not been consistent run to run in
regards to how far north moisture will make it. Dry and VFR
conditions should return by early to mid-morning as SHRA pushes east
of the terminals. Winds will remain NW at KAVL, with low-end
intermittent gusts expected to linger through much of the period.
Winds will gradually turn NW early this evening east of the
mountains behind a cold front. Winds east of the mountains will
generally stay N/NNW through the period, but may toggle NE briefly
just after daybreak.

Outlook: Dry and VFR Thursday night into Friday before another
disturbance brings rain chances and associated restrictions Friday
evening into Saturday. Dry and VFR conditions return Sunday and
linger through at least Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/JPT