409
FXUS62 KGSP 291801
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Still on track for triple digit heat indices by midweek.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Afternoon shower and thunderstorms chances remain through
Monday, with increasingly sparse coverage expected each day
afterward.
2. Hot and humid conditions return after Monday. Dangerous heat
index values arrive in the low terrain by the second half of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Afternoon shower and thunderstorms chances
remain through Monday, with increasingly sparse coverage expected
each day afterward.

The trough begins to shift eastward as height rises occur ahead of
the ridge pushing east. Pattern becomes more stagnant as the
subtropical ridge expands over the south and starts to stint
convective activity. But, before this occurs, got another round of
typical summertime showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through
at least Monday. Higher chances over the mountains as usual through
the evening hours and the same for Sunday. Drier air filters in with
the high pressure and decreases rain chances east of the mountains
for Sunday, onward. Guidance depicts a drier period with only a
slight chance of showers through at least midweek.


Key message 2: Hot and humid conditions return after Monday.
Dangerous heat index values arrive in the low terrain by the second
half of the week.

By Monday, the ridge continues to push eastward and the subtropical
ridge dominates across the south. What this means is a rise in
temperatures once again, reminding us all that summer is still in
full swing. Long range guidance depicts temps ticking upward
starting on Monday and reaching the mid to upper 90s from Tuesday
onward. Heat indices also start to creep up, spotty at first, but
soon more widespread 100+ by midweek. Closer to Wednesday, areas
east of the mountains could be feeling heat index values in the 101
to 106 range, increasing confidence that a Heat Advisory may be
needed. Either way, the revenge of summer is upon us and there is
still no cold front on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mix of MVFR and VFR this afternoon across
the terminals with BKN/FEW lower clouds. A few TSRA/SHRA possible in
the mountains and KCLT, so PROB30 to cover it. Confidence isn`t high
enough to justify elsewhere. BR possible overnight, MVFR/IFR vsby
for KAVL/KHKY, with 6SM at KCLT after 07z through mid morning. This
depends on rain too, so less rain, less BR. Light to calm winds
overnight with S/SE winds for Sunday.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms possible through Monday.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus likely each morning through the
first part of next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP