873
FXUS62 KGSP 230539
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1239 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will spread over the area this weekend with a gradual
warming trend into early next week. A cold front will bring some
showers to the region on Tuesday and a second system may bring wet
conditions to the area for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Saturday: Radar echoes and a few obs still
reporting light precip just upstream of the NC mountains, so
continued snow showers expected into the overnight, but look
to be light. Will let the WSW and NPW ride for now. Clouds have
mostly cleared and winds becoming light east of the mountains,
allowing temps to catch up with prev trends and should bottom out
near normal this morning.

Otherwise, a strong area of low pressure continues to churn across
the NE CONUS, bringing NW flow snow and gusty winds across the
mountains. Temps will be near or below freezing in the usual NW
flow snow locations for additional light accums. A rouge gust or
two may still develop outside of the mountains, but have ended most
locations. Stratocu may again spill out of the mountains and across
the area overnight, with patches of thicker cirrus from time to
time. The area of low pressure bobbles toward the east overnight,
shifting the location of higher snow accumulation toward the far
northern counties. Guidance from the HREF and CAMs has about another
0.5-1.5 inch possible through Saturday morning. For this, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM Saturday. The other
concern are the winds. This strong low packs a tight 850mb pressure
gradient, creating gusty winds at the higher elevations. Wind speeds
of 15-25 mph expected outside the mountains with gusts up to 50mph
at the higher elevations likely through Saturday morning. For this,
a Wind Advisory is in effect from now through 7 AM Saturday. Once
the low lifts toward the NE and out of the area, a broad and calmer
pattern emerges for Saturday. Dry conditions prevail and winds
decrease. Temperatures rebound back into the low 60s on Saturday.
Overnight temps across most of the CWA hover a few degrees above
freezing. Higher elevations can expect below freezing temps tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Friday: Mid level ridging and surface high
pressure will control our weather from Saturday night through
Monday. A warming trend will occur through the period with highs and
lows increasing each day. Highs on Monday could be as much as 10
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry through this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM EST Friday: A mid level trof and associated surface low
will move through the Great Lakes states Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will push a cold front through the area with a weakening
band of showers. The highest chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday
will be in the North Carolina mountains with a decreasing chance and
amounts east and south of the mountains.

In the wake of the frontal passage, temperatures will return to near
normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will settle
across the area for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Another system
will bring some showers across the region on Thanksgiving Day.
Colder conditions, likely below normal, will follow this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Plenty of stratocu across the mountains
and into the NC foothills, but the Piedmont sites have cleared
out for the most part. Cig at KAVL continues to hover just above
3000 ft, but there is still a chance it could go MVFR for a while
thru daybreak. Cannot rule out a brief snow shower there as well,
but too low confidence to mention in the TAF and any impacts should
be minimal. KAVL will continue to be gusty out of the NNW into the
aftn. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with generally light W
to WSW wind thru about 14-15z, then toggling to NW and increasing
slightly, but expected to stay below 10 kt. Winds may toggle back
to WSW in the Upstate sites this aftn. Winds will become light or
calm at all sites this evening.

Outlook: VFR through Monday. A weak cold front crossing the
area Tuesday and may bring scattered rain showers and associated
restrictions. Dry high pressure returns for Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-
     048>052.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...ARK/CP/RWH
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...ARK