086
FXUS62 KGSP 050520
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
120 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passing today could initiate a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills. Drier and
still warm conditions return over the weekend as high pressure
builds back into the region. A stronger, but still mostly dry,
cold front is expected to track across the region on Monday,
bringing high temperatures below normal Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1238 AM EDT Saturday: No major changes to the forecast
tonight.  Upper-level cloud cover remains thick along and south of
a weak surface boundary draped across the Mid-Atlantic.  It`s dry,
though, which is a plus.

Otherwise...sfc high pressure centered to our north will continue
to spread over our area tonight and tomorrow. This will funnel in
drier air from the north behind a weak backdoor boundary. Mountain
valley fog and low stratus will be possible again overnight and
in the morning, especially if cloud cover clears out sooner and
allows for better radiational cooling. Mostly sunny skies will
return for Saturday with highs back in the low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Weak surface high will be in control over
the weekend as a cold front stalls to the south. Warm air aloft
will keep temperatures warm as the values remain a category or
two above normal and the flow aloft remains weak with elevated
heights. Heights gradually fall Sunday into Monday as a strong
closed upper low churns over the southern Hudson Bay and an upper
trough with an attendant cold front encroaches the region from the
northwest by the very end of the forecast period. Enough moisture
could squeeze out a shower or two Monday afternoon along and ahead
of the front, but confidence is too low for a mentionable PoP at
this time. Temperatures will remain a category or so above normal
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: Broad cyclonic flow will begin to settle in
over the area during the extended forecast period as the attendant
cold front slips through the region Monday night. The moisture-
starved front won`t produce much in the way of precipitation, but
stout CAA will filter in behind as dewpoints dip drastically and the
first real taste of Fall enters the region Monday night as low
temperatures drop to near-normal values. True post-frontal
environment will settle in through the rest of the medium range as
the front stalls well to the south and high pressure continues to
remain in control. Good insolation during the daytime period and
clear skies at night leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions
through D7. High and low temperatures are expected to be ~5 degrees
below normal following the fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Another VFR TAF period on tap, with the
exception of IFR to LIFR fog through daybreak at KAVL.  The Little
Tennessee Valley already has ongoing low-MVFR restrictions,
and it`s less exposed than the French Broad to clear skies and
radiative cooling.  Any restrictions should lift quickly after
daybreak, giving way to VFR conditions and FEW/SKC skies everywhere.
Winds are mostly calm at this point, and should pick up out of the
NNE after daybreak, taking on an increasingly E component through
the period.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected thru the weekend and
into early next week. Fog/low stratus will be possible overnight
and each morning, mainly in the mtn valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...MPR