908
FXUS62 KGSP 271755
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Day 1 Marginal Risk for tonight into daybreak Tuesday was removed
from the GSP CWA.

Heat Advisory issued for Elbert, Hart, Franklin, and Stephens
counties in northeast Georgia from noon to 8 PM Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Severe threat returns Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a
cold front. The main hazards with any severe storms that develop
are damaging winds and large hail. Make sure you have multiple
ways to receive warnings.
2. Hot and humid conditions are expected Tuesday with heat
indices climbing into the triple digits for most locations east
of the mountains. A Heat Advisory was issued for portions of
northeast Georgia for Tuesday from Noon to 8 PM. Stay hydrated,
limit time outdoors and spend as much time in air conditioning as
possible. Never leave people or pets alone in a closed car. Look
before you lock!
3. Less humid, drier, and cooler behind the front Wednesday
through Friday. Even cooler conditions expected over the weekend
with shower and thunderstorm chances returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Severe threat returns Tuesday afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. The main hazards with any severe storms that
develop are damaging winds and large hail. Make sure you have
multiple ways to receive warnings.

Convection will be mostly suppressed today but cannot rule out a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly across northeast GA and
the SC Upstate this afternoon and evening but confidence is low.
With the "Ring of Fire" pattern lingering over the region, another
storm complex looks to make a run at the GSP forecast area overnight
into early Tuesday morning. The Day 1 Marginal risk was removed from
the GSP CWA which makes sense as the severe threat looks minimal if
any with the 12Z CAMs depicting the system weakening rapidly as it
pushes towards/into western North Carolina.

There is a much higher concern for severe weather Tuesday afternoon
and evening as a cold front tracks across the GSP forecast area.
However, the severe threat will be highly dependent on how quickly
leftover convective debris cloudiness clears out prior to peak
heating. If cloud cover lingers longer than expected and cuts into
peak heating then the severe threat could be limited somewhat.
Regardless, we will have a very favorable environment for severe
storm development for this time of year. Storms will be more
organized than we typically see during the summer, with supercells
possible thanks to an impressive amount of deep layer shear for
summertime (~30-40 kts) and 2,500-3,500+ J/kg of surface instability
developing during peak heating. Any storms that develop in this
enviroment will have the potential to become severe and will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail up to the
size of golf balls. Thus, the Day 2 SPC Severe Weather Outlook
showing a Slight risk across nearly the entire GSP forecast area is
warranted. The severe risk appears to be the highest across the
central and northern NC mountains, the NC foothills/Piedmont, and
the northern/eastern South Carolina Upstate. Confidence on the
severe threat elsewhere is lower. Timing for severe storms looks to
be 2 PM to 8 PM Tuesday.


Key message 2: Hot and humid conditions are expected Tuesday with heat
indices climbing into the triple digits for most locations east of
the mountains. A Heat Advisory was issued for portions of northeast
Georgia for Tuesday from Noon to 8 PM. Stay hydrated, limit time
outdoors and spend as much time in air conditioning as possible.
Never leave people or pets alone in a closed car. Look before you
lock!

Tuesday will be the hottest and most humid day of the week,
especially east of the mountains and across the mountain valleys,
thanks to increased SW flow ahead of the front. Highs east of the
mountains will climb into the lower to mid 90s with heat indices
ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Hot and humid conditions
are also expected across the typically warmer mountain valleys with
highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices
climbing into the lower to mid 90s. Breezy W/SW winds ahead of the
front as well as afternoon/early evening storms should provide a bit
of relief from the heat and humidity. The upper Savannah River
Valley would have the best chance to see heat indices reach Heat
Advisory criteria (which starts at 105 degrees) so a Heat Advisory
was issued for Elbert, Hart, Franklin, and Stephens counties in
northeast Georgia from noon to 8 PM Tuesday. Confidence on reaching
advisory criteria is lower across the southwestern SC Upstate so
will hold off on an advisory for these locations for now and will
let the mid shift reevaluate if the current advisory needs to be
expanded. Both heat indices and high temperatures Tuesday could be
limited somewhat by convective debris cloud cover from the
overnight/early morning MCS lingering longer than expected and/or by
diurnal convection.


Key message 3: Less humid, drier, and cooler behind the front
Wednesday through Friday. Even cooler conditions expected over the
weekend with shower and thunderstorm chances returning.

The cold front should be south of the GSP forecast area by daybreak
Wednesday, stalling over the Southeast through Friday. Dry high
pressure will build in from the north behind the front allowing
lower humidity, drier conditions and cooler temperatures to return
for the rest of the workweek. Highs Wednesday through Friday will
end up near normal to just above normal for most locations. The
front will slowly creep back northward over the weekend bringing
shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast area. Even
cooler conditions can be expected over the weekend with highs
dropping below normal to kick off August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly dry and VFR through the 18Z TAF
period, although with the KCLT TAF going out 30 hours went with a
PROB30 for TSRA towards the end of the TAF period as convection
should be impacting the terminal by late afternoon/early evening
Tuesday. Winds will be mainly VRB at KHKY and the SC Upstate
terminals through early evening. Winds at KCLT will favor a N/NE
direction through early evening. Winds will remain NW/NNW at KAVL
with low-end, intermittent gusts expected through early evening.
Winds across the terminals will got calm to light and VRB late this
evening into early Tuesday morning. Winds east of the mountains will
pick up out of the SW around/after daybreak Tuesday, gradually
increasing in speed throughout the day. Low-end gusts should develop
across the terminals by late morning or early afternoon Tuesday.
KAVL should see winds go more WNW/W by mid-morning or early
afternoon Tuesday with speeds also expected to gradually increase.

Outlook: Dry and mostly VFR conditions return Wednesday through
Friday before shower and thunderstorms chances, as well as
associated restrictions, return over the weekend. Low stratus and/or
fog will be possible each morning, mainly in the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR