391
FXUS62 KGSP 292338
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated sky/PoP/temp/dewpoint trendsin the public forecast through
the evening hours. Revised Aviation discussion for 00z TAF
issuance. No other significant changes.

Otherwise, still on track for triple digit heat indices by
midweek.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Afternoon shower and thunderstorms chances remain through
Monday, with increasingly sparse coverage expected each day
afterward.
2. Hot and humid conditions return after Monday. Dangerous heat
index values arrive in the low terrain by the second half of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Afternoon shower and thunderstorms chances
remain through Monday, with increasingly sparse coverage expected
each day afterward.

The trough begins to shift eastward as height rises occur ahead of
the ridge pushing east. Pattern becomes more stagnant as the
subtropical ridge expands over the south and starts to stint
convective activity. But, before this occurs, got another round of
typical summertime showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through
at least Monday. Higher chances over the mountains as usual through
the evening hours and the same for Sunday. Drier air filters in with
the high pressure and decreases rain chances east of the mountains
for Sunday, onward. Guidance depicts a drier period with only a
slight chance of showers through at least midweek.


Key message 2: Hot and humid conditions return after Monday.
Dangerous heat index values arrive in the low terrain by the second
half of the week.

By Monday, the ridge continues to push eastward and the subtropical
ridge dominates across the south. What this means is a rise in
temperatures once again, reminding us all that summer is still in
full swing. Long range guidance depicts temps ticking upward
starting on Monday and reaching the mid to upper 90s from Tuesday
onward. Heat indices also start to creep up, spotty at first, but
soon more widespread 100+ by midweek. Closer to Wednesday, areas
east of the mountains could be feeling heat index values in the 101
to 106 range, increasing confidence that a Heat Advisory may be
needed. Either way, the revenge of summer is upon us and there is
still no cold front on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Highly isolated +SHRA could bubble up in the
first hour or two of the period across KCLT, KGSP, KGMU due to such
activity being nearby at issuance time, and today`s propensity for
development along outflows. This warrants only VCSH mention after
00z; shower affecting KCLT as of 2325z is likely to have passed
by 00z. Winds will be light and easterly before calming this
evening. KCLT may flip between ENE and ESE early in the period;
just went VRB with low confidence on timing. ESE should return for
a time there before also calming. Stalled diffuse boundary in the
area tonight, with weak ESE flow developing aloft that provides a
good setup for IFR stratus at KCLT and KHKY; lower confidence on
LIFR but that is in TEMPO. KAVL probably will see LIFR valley fog
form again. Some potential for radiation fog at the SC sites but
with low confidence only went MVFR. We`ll likely see MVFR level
cumulus form soon at/after daybreak around the region, which could
form cigs for a couple of hours. Expecting return to VFR at all
sites by late morning. Precip chances currently too low to mention
at all sites, with mainly mountain ridge SHRA/TSRA. Light SE`ly
winds late tonight and Sunday.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms possible through Monday.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus likely each morning through
the first part of the coming week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/JCW