950
FXUS62 KGSP 070030
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
830 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Chantal will continue to weaken as it moves across
the mid Atlantic states away from our region tonight and Monday. Hot
and more humid conditions will return on Monday and linger through
midweek featuring daily afternoon and evening shower and
thunderstorm chances. The heat abates somewhat into the weekend but
daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 540 PM: Sent a quick grid update last hour to reflect current
conditions and trends across the area. At 5 PM, the center of
Tropical Depression Chantal was located near Fayetteville, NC
or about 75 miles east of Union County, NC. The back edge of the
rain shield has already pulled away from the area although a few
sprinkles may linger for the next few hours, particularly across
Davie and Rowan Counties. Any threat for heavy rain and flash
flooding has ended across the area. We will no longer be producing
HTI graphics for this event. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have also developed in the Savannah River Valley. SPC
surface analysis and CIRA Advected Layered Precipitable Water (ALPW)
shows some moisture pooling in the boundary layer, resulting in a
narrow corridor of enhanced MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg. ALPW also
reveals a pocket of drier air in the 850-700 mb and 700-500 mb that
is associated with subsidence on the western periphery of Chantal`s
circulation. Despite convection having to overcome this subsidence
as well as additional subsidence from downsloping flow south of the
Blue Ridge Escarpment, vertical profiles have yielded a relatively
favorable thermodynamic environment for shallow convection. The
threat of isolated showers should continue in NE GA, far western
areas of Upstate SC, and the western NC mountains until dark.

Chantal will weaken as it drifts northward thru central NC
tonight. Winds will back and gradually diminish, becoming light NW
across the CWA by the wee hours Monday. The remaining high altitude
cloud cover will also diminish. Despite these conditions fog is
not expected due to large dewpoint depressions. During the day
Monday, low to midlevel winds will be mainly west to northwest,
setting us up for some degree of downslope flow; surface winds
will return to the SW for the most part. Accordingly very warm
temperatures are forecast with highs largely in the mid-90s in the
Piedmont; some locations in the Savannah Valley reach the upper
90s, and the major mountain valleys will top out near 90. Deep
mixing is expected, which coupled with downslope flow is expected
to bring afternoon dewpoints low enough to keep heat index from
rising much above 100. Dry profiles aloft and deep mixing suggest
only widely scattered diurnal convection over the mountains and
foothills. Where convection does fire, weak shear and the dry
midlevels should support an isolated dry microburst and perhaps
localized wind damage as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday: Mid and upper level ridging will strengthen
atop the SE CONUS to start off the period as llvl sw flow advects
even hot air into the region.  Solid middle 90s are progged for
Tuesday`s maximums with apparent temperatures possibly reaching
into the lower 100s.  The axis of the warmest air will start to
be displaced on Wednesday but essentially it close to a persistence
fcst as far as max temperatures go, another afternoon of middle 90s.
Despite pretty typical diurnal tstm cvrg, there is possibility for a
few strong to severe storms on Tuesday, especially along and east of
developing sfc trough. As Miss/Ohio Valley energy begins to ride
eastward and upper heights nudge downward, there is the potential
for diurnally enhanced showers and storms to become numerous
regionwide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday: Temperatures will pull back to around climo
as a wavy flow sets up atop the region during the latter half of the
work week.  Given the seasonably rich moisture in place, pretty much
either day there is the possibility of locally excessive rain or
isolated severe storms, even outside of peak heating due to the
potential for subtle energy to ripple through the aforementioned
wavy pattern.  There is certainly no indication that the atmosphere
will suppressed in any way next weekend with little overall change
in the mean pattern expected.  Daily temperatures still around climo
with likely probabilities for showers and storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An isolated shower may develop near
GSP-GMU where convergence near a weak surface trough will
provide lift for an isolated shower or two through just after
sunset. Coverage/confidence too low to include in 00Z TAFs. Winds
will be light and variable along the lee trough axis, westerly to
the west (AND). Farther east at HKY and CLT, north-northeast flow
on the backside of Tropical Depression Chantal, but the gusty winds
will quickly subside this evening, becoming more west-northwest
or even light and variable tonight as the system exits and the
gradient relaxes. Since the rain and deeper moisture remained to
our east, a relatively dry airmass will limit the fog potential
tonight at TAF sites. West winds 3-6 kt will develop after sunrise,
shifting more southwesterly and increasing to 5-8 kt as the day
progresses. Expect a SCT CU field to develop by late morning with
CIGs 4-5 kft, increasing to 5-7 kft in the afternoon. SCT showers
and ISO storms are expected to develop mainly over the mountains
in the afternoon. A PROB30 group was added to KAVL TAF between
18Z-22Z.

Outlook: More typical summertime weather returns Monday night and
Tuesday and continues into late week, with sct SHRA/TSRA mainly
in the aftn/eve and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JRK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JRK