779
FXUS62 KGSP 181044
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure persists through the forecast period. A gradual
warming trend through the weekend and into the beginning of the
week, with above normal temperatures by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6:25 AM EDT Friday: We remain clear with light to calm
winds across the area this morning. So far this morning only
Franklin has reported any fog/low stratus and it`s looking
like it may not spread much further. Regardless, temperatures
should warm quickly once the sun comes up, and any fog should
burn off by mid to late morning.

Otherwise, a cP sfc high will continue to dominate the synoptic
pattern, enforced by a highly amplified upper lvl ridge centered
over the eastern Great Lakes. Skies should remain mostly clear
today as profiles are dry thru a deep layer. The ample sunshine
and light winds will allow the warming trend to continue this
aftn, however highs should remain a few degrees below normal
for mid-October. Low temperatures early Saturday should remain
warm enough to limit any frost concerns outside the mtns. Some
patchy frost still looks possible in the sheltered valleys of
the NC mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday: A persistent omega block continues through the
weekend, locking in dry conditions and raising temperatures. An
amplifying ridge slides over the southeast by Sunday and turns flow
aloft from the N/NW. This helps reinforce the drier air, lowering
dewpoints through the short term. Despite the persistent drying,
guidance fore wildfire concerns suggests a low chance (<30%) that RH
values drop below critical thresholds through the period. This keeps
moderate confidence, especially when analyzing forecast soundings
for this time. A rather shallow BL and weak winds keep any
additional mixing to a minimum. Otherwise, as the high pressure
continues to build, temperatures also trend warmer for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday: Calm and quiet weather continues into the
extended period. The omega blocking pattern starts to breakdown as
the upper low churning over the SW CONUS gets absorbed by the
general flow to the north. After Monday, flow aloft becomes NW and
broad. The GFS/EURO want to setup a very weak area of low pressure
off the coastline by midweek, which may give a brief moisture return
to the area, but still too far out to pin down. It will change.
Regardless, this means very little to the weather pattern expected
over the area. There is still minimal QPF response through the end
of the period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail, along with
warming temperatures. By mid-week, daytime highs approach the low
80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions and mostly clear
skies to continue thru the 12z taf period. The only exception will
likely be some patchy mtn valley fog this morning in the usual areas.
I don`t expect any restrictions to reach KAVL, but it`s not com-
pletely out of the question during the first few hrs of the taf.
Winds will remain light to calm thru the morning. They will pick
up marginally from the NE this aftn with speeds generally 7 kts
or less and remain NELY for the remainder of the taf period.

Outlook: Sprawling sfc high pressure will keep dry/VFR conditions
over the area thru early next week. The main exception will be gra-
dually increasing chances for mtn valley fog/stratus each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ010-017.
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT