177
FXUS62 KGSP 010702
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon,
with a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly across the southern
half of the area. Temperatures rebound to near-normal today,
with a return to cooler conditions Tuesday.
2. Dry conditions are expected from Wednesday through Saturday. A
warming trend begins Wednesday, with a return to near-normal
temperatures expected by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this
afternoon, with a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly across
the southern half of the area. Temperatures rebound to near-normal
today, with a return to cooler conditions Tuesday.

The inverted surface ridge has dissipated almost as quickly as it
developed, with surface winds having become light/variable or calm
across the entire area. Nevertheless, low clouds remain widespread
this morning. Surface analysis depicts a weak wave centered just
off the SC coast. As this develops a bit more through the morning,
the flow above the surface is expected to become NW and increase
to 15-20 kts. Downslope effects should make rather quick work of
much of the cloud cover later this morning, and this is expected
to allow temps to warm to near-normal this afternoon, with surface
moisture becoming sufficiently elevated to modestly destabilize
the atmosphere (sbCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Meanwhile, yet another area
of transient high pressure will begin spilling into the northeast
quadrant of the Conus this morning, with yet another inverted
ridge building south to the east of the Appalachians throughout
the day. The leading edge of this effective boundary will likely
reach our northern zones this afternoon. The boundary and terrain
effects should provide the impetus for scattered convective
development this afternoon, with general 30-50 PoPs advertised
for much of the CWA. Deep layer shear increasing to 30-40 kts
suggests an uptick in the threat for an isolated severe storm
with this activity. However, the more likely scenario for a severe
weather event or two will involve the potential for an organized
complex of storms originating from the central Conus to make a run
for southwest NC and the Savannah River Valley this evening...as
depicted in some high resolution guidance sources. There`s plenty
of uncertainty regarding this scenario at the current time, but
even if it occurs, the parameter space is expected to be barely
supportive of severe weather in our area.

Cooler/more stable air make a return tonight/Tuesday, with
Tuesday`s max temps forecast at a solid 10 degrees below today`s
forecast. Nevertheless, a rather strong short wave is forecast
to dig down the western periphery of a long wave trough centered
along the East Coast tomorrow afternoon. Cold trough aloft could
allow for some convection (almost exclusively showers) to initiate
over the mountains. Meanwhile, weak surface development is also
possible along the baroclinic zone south of our area...which could
allow for some upglide and stratiform-y rain to develop across
~the southern third of the area. 20-40 PoPs are carried across
much of the CWA Tuesday.


Key message 2: Dry conditions are expected from Wednesday through
Saturday. A warming trend begins Wednesday, with a return to
near-normal temperatures expected by the weekend.

Temperatures remain comfortably below normal Wed under anomalously
low heights aloft, with depleting moisture/stable conditions
resulting in the first CWA-wide PoP-free day in more than a
week. Heights will rise aloft through the latter half of the
week, allowing temps to steadily warm toward early June normals
by Friday/Saturday. The upper air pattern will become static,
with an anticyclone that is forecast to meander from the mid-Miss
Valley during mid-week to the Southeast by the weekend. This will
support persistent surface ridging across our region, with major
moisture sources being more or less closed for business. As such,
it appears that it will be at least next Sunday before diurnal
convective chances return.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR cigs remain widespread across the
Terminal Forecast Area early this morning. Some spotty light
showers have also managed to develop, but even these are beginning
to shift east of the area. Low cigs should persist through at least
sunrise. It`s looking increasingly likely that cigs will lower to
IFR prior to daybreak at the upstate SC terminals, and tempos have
been introduced to account for this. Otherwise, cigs should remain
MVFR at the NC terminals. Flow turning downslope off the mountains
later this morning should assist clearing of much of the cloud cover
after sunrise, and VFR is forecast at all sites by late morning.

Clearing should allow for some instability to develop this
afternoon, allowing for scattered convective development, and
Prob30s for TSRA are carried at most sites from mid-afternoon
through early evening. Winds will be light/variable at most sites
through the period, except at KAVL, which should see more of a
reliable NW wind at 5-10 kts develop by daybreak.

Outlook: Showers are again possible Tuesday. A drier pattern should
set up by Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JDL