431
FXUS62 KGSP 022344
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in chilly and dry conditions Wednesday
into Thursday. Unseasonably cold and unsettled weather is expected
Friday as another system brings more precipitation to the area. This
system may linger into part of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) A Special Weather Statement issued for counties along the NC/TN
border through 9AM Wednesday for icy road conditions and possible
freezing fog.

2) Dry conditions and warmer temps return Wednesday.

As of 620 PM EST Tuesday: Confidence is increasing on expected icy
road conditions and the potential for freezing fog at locations
along the TN/NC border, especially above 3500 feet. For this, an SPS
was issued through 9AM Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, the axis of an upper-level trough continues to swing east
of the area by early evening, with deep-layer drying overspreading
the forecast area from the west. Lingering low-level moisture will
bank up against the mountains along the TN border well into tonight,
which should be too shallow for anything more than a few flurries
early this evening. In the lower mountain valleys, with clearing
skies and very moist ground from earlier rainfall, some fog will
likely develop in the usual locations. Meanwhile, low clouds may not
completely scatter out across the far southern and eastern parts of
the forecast area before sunset. Guidance agrees on some of this
stratocu expanding back north and west across the Lakelands and NE
GA overnight, with moisture trapped under a low-level inversion.
Winds should hold up thru most of the night in the mountains enough
to limit fog potential. Temps will fall into the 20s across most of
the area, except lower 30s under more cloud cover in the Lakelands.

Wednesday looks like a nice weather day, with the center of cool
and dry high pressure settling in from the west. Temps will top
out about 5 to 10 degrees below normal under mostly sunny skies
and light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EST Tuesday: Dry high pressure settles in over the
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Lows and highs will be around 5
degrees below normal.

A low pressure system then moves east along the Gulf Coast Thursday
night and jumps to the Carolina coast late in the day on Friday. The
high over the area is weak with the center moving off shore through
the period. The developing cold air damming is weak as well. That
said, there is enough cold air at onset for the precip to begin as a
rain/snow mix across the mountains into the NC Piedmont. Some sleet
may mix in as well. A warm nose develops on Friday changing the
precip to all rain outside of the mountains, and a rain/freezing rain
mix over the mountains and Blue Ridge where enough low level cold
air lingers. As the low moves east to the Carolina coast, the
thermal profiles turn to more of a rain/snow sounding with warming
low levels and cooling mid levels.

As usual, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the thermal
profiles, but the guidance does appear to be in decent agreement
regarding precip timing. For now, it appears that any snow/sleet
outside of the mountains will be very light, with the potential
freezing mix across the mountains to be in the advisory range. Of
course, this will continue to be monitored. Lows Thu nite look to be
near to slightly below normal, with highs Friday around 15 degrees
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EST Tue: Precip should taper off Friday night into
Saturday as the low moves out into the Atlantic taking the moisture
with it. There may be enough lingering moisture form some elevation
dependent rain/snow across the mountains during this time, but any
additional accumulation remains uncertain. Lows will be near normal
with highs around 5 degrees below normal.

The operational guidance has trended toward yet another Gulf low and
weak cold air damming high to affect the area Sunday into Monday,
instead of a weak fast moving Clipper-type low. Right now, the
forecast thermal profiles and forecast soundings look less
complicated with a rain/snow look, mainly across the mountains with
some guidance showing more snow and others showing more rain. Have
followed this trend with the forecast, but as usual, stay tuned as
it will likely changes. The forecast looks dry for Tuesday.

Lows near normal Sunday fall to around 5 degrees below normal by
Tuesday. Highs around 5 degrees below normal Sunday drop a few
degrees by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions across the area continue to slowly
improve as drier air moves in from the NW and clears out the lower
clouds. Starting off with a mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR cigs. Outside the
mountains, sites should scatter out shortly after the 00z TAF
issuance and begin to improve throughout the night. At the mountain
sites, KAVL and KHKY could see a few hours of reduced VSBY from BR
in the early morning hours. There is also the possibility of patchy
FG, but confidence isn`t high enough at this time. There could be
some lingering clouds at KGSP for Wednesday, but is expected to
remain VFR. Winds should be out of the N/NW overnight before
becoming calm to VRB toward the morning hours and remaining
predominately VRB through the day. KCLT, though very light, should
turn more S/SE for Wednesday after 17z.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through Wednesday and some of
Thursday. Rain returns Thursday night into the weekend, bringing
likely associated flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/CP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CP