275
FXUS62 KGSP 071841
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
241 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening, some of which could become severe. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible again Sunday before a brief
lull develops Monday. Unsettled weather returns Monday night into
Tuesday before another lull develops on Wednesday and potentially
lingers into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

1.  Confidence is increasing as to the threat of severe
thunderstorms this evening across northeast GA, southwest NC,
and the western Upstate of SC.

2.  The main threat will be damaging wind gusts with the passage
of a squall line.

3.  Hot temperatures into the lower 90s east of the mountains.

As of 245 PM: Confidence keeps slowly increasing that a squall
line of thunderstorms will affect at least the western third of
the fcst area this evening, with damaging wind gusts being the main
threat. We have been watching a QLCS move across nrn MS/middle TN
into northern AL through early afternoon and it keeps ingesting
convection out ahead of it and gradually organizing. Expect the
QLCS to further consolidate as it moves east at a fairly good clip
into the late afternoon. The HRRR has been fairly consistent with
moving this feature across northern AL and northwest GA/southeast
TN, then reaching the fcst area around 22Z. The 12Z run of the
HREF shows better agreement among the various CAMs with this QLCS
scenario unfolding into the early evening. We already have a good
corridor/gradient of 1500-3000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE between
the ongoing QLCS and western NC/northeast GA, so I see no reason
why the QLCS wouldn`t reach the fcst area, still producing wind
damage. The area west of I-26 should anticipate being put in a
Severe Tstm Watch at some point in fairly short order and plan
accordingly. Precip probs were adjusted to account for the timing
of the squall line. As to how far east it would make it, most of
the guidance has it weakening as it tracks east across the fcst
area thru late evening, but it should not be a surprise if it holds
together all the way to I-77. We will of course be monitoring and
gearing up for the severe threat.

Meanwhile, some widely scattered showers and storms will develop
and move east across the fcst area. Temps will be seasonally hot
and humid.

After the storms move east and weaken, the HRRR has latched onto
the idea of a second round of mainly elevated showers and storms
developing/moving across the southern half of the fcst area, in
addition to whatever develops/lingers along the TN border. Precip
probs extend further into the overnight, but are still allowed to
wane toward daybreak Sunday. Low temps will be mild. For Sunday,
much uncertainty as to the amount of convective development, with so
much convective debris cloudiness lingering thru the morning. The
CAMs show relatively sparse coverage across most of the fcst area,
so precip probs may need to be cut back on later issuances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier Sunday Night into Monday

2) Unsettled Weather Returns Monday Night into Tuesday

3) Near to Above Normal Temps Expected Early Next Week

Drier conditions will develop behind a departing cold front Sunday
night into Monday but this will be short-lived as moisture returns
Monday night into Tuesday as the front stalls across the Carolinas
and as another cold front approaches out of the west. The second
front will push across the forecast are late Tuesday into Tuesday
night keeping shower and thunderstorm chances around. Went lower
than the NBM for PoPs through the period as the NBM has been
consistently running too high the last few days. Capped PoPs to
chance through the period with high-res guidance and global model
guidance trending drier for early next week. Lows each night will be
a few to several degrees above normal. Highs on Monday will end up a
few degrees above normal, ending up near normal on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Trending Drier Wednesday into Thursday

2) Unsettled Weather Returns Friday into Saturday

3) Above Normal Temps Expected

The aforementioned cold front in the short term should be east of
the forecast area early Wednesday morning but will stall across the
central Carolinas through the remainder of the period. Drier
conditions will develop behind the front on Wednesday and may even
linger into Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances should return
again Friday into Saturday as the stalled frontal boundary nudges
westward. Highs each day will end up a few degrees above normal,
with lows each night remaining a few to several degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: For the remainder of the afternoon...VFR at
all terminals with a SW to W wind and occasional gusts. Convective
clouds with bases generally 035 to 060. Won`t rule out a stray
shower. Our main concern is the model depiction of a squall line
moving west to east across the fcst area this evening. Upstream
radars show the line organizing as it moves into middle TN and
nrn AL at this time, with a corridor of instability extending
eastward into the Carolinas for this feature to exploit into the
evening. Confidence continues to increase that it will affect at
least the western terminals at some point during the middle part
of the evening, so TEMPOs were used at those spots. Still sketchy
as to survival as far east as KCLT, so a PROB30 was kept there. A
new development in the guidance is for a second round of elevated
showers and storms thru the early morning hours. We approach that
development cautiously with a PROB30 in the I-85 corridor. If that
fails to happen, then some low cloud/vis restrictions become a
better possibility. Wind should remain SW. The activity should
weaken and move east by daybreak. For Sunday, another round of
scattered thunderstorms will be possible from midday onward. Wind
should be SW and gusty once again.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PM