787
FXUS62 KGSP 102342
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
642 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses our region from the northwest this evening as
colder air filters into the mountains with snow forecast tonight
along the Tennessee border areas. High pressure returns Thursday and
into the weekend ahead of an arctic cold front which arrives early
Sunday. Dry and cold high pressure will move in briefly for the
start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Wednesday:

Low clouds and some spotty precip are crossing the area ahead of the
cold front approaching from the northwest. Steadier precip will move
into the mountains in the moist, NW flow behind the front this
evening. Clouds will linger across the mountains as well. The clouds
should scatter out outside of the mountains later this evening as
the across the Ozark Plateau and into extreme eastern Arkansas.
front moves through.

Key Message #1: Winds diminish outside of the mountains but remain
windy across the North Carolina mountains.

The cold front moves into the area this evening. Windy conditions
will continue across the mountains overnight with very windy
conditions above 3500 feet. Winds have diminished outside of the
mountains but low end gusts will continue through the evening as the
front crosses the area.

As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in place for elevations above
3500ft, valid through 10AM Thursday.

Key Message #2: Temperatures cool to below normal tonight.

The onset of aggressive postfrontal CAA tonight will rapidly lower
temperatures, with most of the mountains falling quickly into the
30s, and the entire forecast area seeing lows at least a category
below normal Thursday morning. Those below-normal temperatures will
stay in place into Thursday, with highs only climbing into the upper
40s across the low terrain, some 2 or more categories cooler than
normal!

Key Message #3: Wintry precip develops across the North Carolina
mountains tonight, producing accumulating snowfall at higher
elevations.

Deep moisture will quickly fill into the area. As soon as
temperatures can cool enough this evening (see key message #2
above), locations across the mountains should change over from rain
to snow...with virtually all of Appalachia expected to see at least
flurries by midnight. While lower elevations may see no
accumulation, or only a dusting, higher elevations could see 2-3"
through Thursday morning, and isolated locations across the northern
Blue Ridge could see totals in excess of 4".

Therefore, Winter Weather Advisory is in place for Avery County and
elevations above 3500ft for the rest of the northern mountains and
Madison County. It will continue through 10AM Thursday, expiring
alongside the Wind Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1236 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message #1: Most locations remain dry outside of a passing
clipper system over the northern mountains on Friday.

Weak cyclonic flow aloft will be in place during the short-term
period, with a passing shortwave to the north on Friday. Guidance
gradually shifting south and clipping the northern mountains
with light rain/snow and little to no accumulations expected at
this time. Otherwise, the airmass is expected to modify with high
pressure moving in with highs at or slightly below normal. Overnight
lows will be a few ticks below normal for both Thursday and Friday.

Key Message #2: Above normal temperatures on Saturday

Rising heights and compressional warming ahead of a strong cold
front will allow for temperatures to rise a few ticks above normal
for Saturday. Model guidance vary on the overall arrival of the
front, but the consensus is that the front should remain just
northwest of the CWFA by 00Z Sunday, allowing for only increasing
high clouds by the very end of the forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 105 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message #1: Model guidance continue to trend toward a dry
frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday, cold and breezy behind
the front.

Strong cold front will be in the midst of moving across the CWFA
Saturday night as a digging closed upper low moves across the Great
Lakes region. The better forcing for ascent and available moisture
will be allocated closer to the core of the low and along the Gulf
Coast, leading to a dry fropa. Most of the guidance indicates that
the full fropa should occur by 12Z Sunday with low-level CAA rushing
in behind the front across the mountains, but expecting the typical
downslope delay outside of the mountains during the daytime period
Sunday. A strong continental surface high (~1040mb) will be in the
midst of sliding across the central CONUS with a brief window of
opportunity for northwest flow snow along the immediate TN border
before dry air entrainment shrivels the shallow low-level moisture
layer. Very tight pressure gradient will develop over the mountains
behind the front and suggests that near Advisory criteria gusts
develop over the high terrain starting Sunday morning and linger
throughout the day before gradually subsiding overnight Sunday as
the center of the surface enters the central/southern Appalachians
by Monday morning. Overnight lows on Saturday night should run a
few ticks above normal with weak WAA ahead of the front. Afternoon
highs will run 15-20 degrees below normal across the mountains,
while locations outside the mountains only run 5-10 degrees below
normal thanks to the aforementioned delay to the CAA onset. However,
CAA will be in full affect across the CWFA Sunday night with a
nice shot of Arctic air, leading to overnight lows running 15-20
degrees below normal, with single digits in the highest elevations,
teens elsewhere in the mountains, teens and twenties outside of
the mountains. Wouldn`t be surprised if a Cold Weather Advisory
needs to be issued for the northern mountains when factoring the
lingering gusts with the very cold airmass in place.

Key Message #2: Cold on Monday with a modifying airmass by Tuesday
and Wednesday

Monday will be the coldest day of the seven day forecast period
as the arctic airmass settles in fully with the continental high
centered over the area, leading to afternoon highs running 10-15
degrees below normal. The best radiational cooling conditions are
expected to be Monday night as values continue to run 10-15 degrees
below normal. However, the airmass should modify rather quickly
as a shortwave ridge builds in on Tuesday following the departing
shortwave trough as the surface high drifts offshore. With warmer
thicknesses moving in across the region expect afternoon highs
to warm, but hover at or a few ticks below normal Tuesday and
Wednesday. A southern stream system looks to try and get its act
together by the middle part of next week, but guidance differ this
far out on the overall synoptic outlook and timing on everything.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low VFR clouds spreading in from the
northwest with a cold front crossing the area. Outside of the
mountains, these should scatter out by midnight or so. Winds have
diminished but gusts will continue as the direction shifts from the
SW to NW outside of the mountains. KAVL already NW and will go NNW
with stronger gusts returning overnight. Some LLWS will continue as
the southwest low level jet moves out but stronger northwest low
level winds move in with the front. Any LLWS should abate by
daybreak. Rain showers and MVFR conditions are possible at KAVL this
evening. Cigs go solidly MVFR overnight as moisture is forced up the
valley in the NW flow. Can`t rule out a flurry, but chance too low
for the TAF. Cigs scatter out around daybreak. Lighter NW wind
expected Thursday, but gusts will linger at KAVL. Winds outside of
the mountains turn more SW late in the day.

Outlook: A clipper type low pressure system could bring clouds and
light precip to the mountains Friday. Dry, VFR conditions expected
Saturday. Another clipper type low pressure system could bring
clouds and precip Saturday night and Sunday, along with very gusty
winds. Dry high pressure returns Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>064.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ033-
     048>050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR/RWH
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...RWH