Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
187
FXUS62 KGSP 251036
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat and humidity build through the weekend and into the
first half of next week, with dangerous heat index values possible
especially Sunday and beyond. Afternoon showers and storms may
develop over the NC mountains, but will remain isolated for much
of the period. By the end of the week, temperatures will return
to more seasonable values.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday: The center of a large upper-level
anticyclone will begin to nudge west near the Carolina coast
today. This will cause the mid and low-level flow to veer from SELY
to more SWLY today. A subtle sea breeze front has stalled over the
Piedmont to central NC, but is expected to dissipate near the NC/SC
border by this aftn. The CAMs show a few showers popping up along
this residual boundary, but most of the activity should be in the
mountains. Whatever does develop will struggle to be severe, thanks
to warm mid-level temps and overall suppressive environment. Highs
will continue the expected warming trend, getting into the mid
90s across the pretty much the entire Piedmont and upper 80s in
the lower mountain valleys. Dewpts only modestly mix out, and
heat index values will likely push into the upper 90s to lower
100s. Some parts of the Charlotte metro area may approach 105,
but not enough area to support a heat advisory today.
Tonight, convection should wane quickly this evening leaving
mostly clear skies. Should see a better chance of mountain valley
fog given expected PoPs in the high terrain and less mid-level
cloudiness. Lows will be mainly in the upper 60s mountain valleys
and low to mid 70s in the Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 AM EDT Friday: Little if any change to the large-scale
pattern is expected through the latter part of the weekend and
early next week. Deep subtropical ridging will remain in place
over the Southeast, driving temperatures into the upper 90s and
lower 100s across much of the area. Even with dewpoints lowered
below the NBM to account for daytime mixing, afternoon heat index
climbs well into Heat Advisory territory across much of the Upstate
and I-77. Little in the way of rainfall is expected with a stout
subsidence inversion evident in deterministic forecast soundings,
and showers only looking like a real possibility over the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 126 AM EDT Friday: Expect oppressive heat to continue into
the week as upper anticyclonic flow continues...and afternoon heat
index climbs into the 100s again across much of the low terrain.
In fact, some locations along and south of I-85 may flirt with
Excessive Heat criteria on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Mid- and late-week, the upper high will nudge westward, while a deep
upper low over Quebec begins to exert its influence over the area.
As a result, some relief is expected from hot conditions on Thursday
and beyond, and rain chances will gradually increase through the
end of the period as subsidence breaks down aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Generally VFR conditions expected thru the
period, except for possible fog at KAVL tonight. Scattered SHRA and
TSRA are expected to form in the mountains, warranting a PROB30
for TSRA at KAVL. A few showers may form outside the mountains
late aftn into early evening, but coverage looks too low for any
SH mention in any of the Piedmont sites. Otherwise, expect mostly
few to sct VFR clouds with light winds favoring a SW to W today,
except NW at KAVL.
Outlook: Scattered diurnal convection is expected each day thru
Wednesday, mainly over the mountains, with only isolated, stray
convection in the Piedmont. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible
each morning in the mtn valleys.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-25
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 2010 68 2000 70 2012 51 1895
2005 2011
1987 2010
KCLT 101 2010 69 2000 79 2010 61 2019
KGSP 100 1995 72 2000 77 2010 57 1911
1890
RECORDS FOR 07-26
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 94 1949 72 1911 71 2012 49 1911
1940 2010
KCLT 100 2005 74 1920 76 1992 60 1904
1940 1940
1914 1936
KGSP 99 2010 76 1920 76 2022 53 1911
1995 2005
1987 1940
RECORDS FOR 07-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1952 70 1946 72 1936 48 1911
1925
KCLT 103 1940 74 1926 76 2022 57 1920
2016
1944
KGSP 103 1940 70 1946 75 2012 54 1911
1944
RECORDS FOR 07-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 98 1952 68 1890 70 2010 53 1895
1878
1877
KCLT 102 1952 70 1890 78 2016 54 1962
KGSP 103 1952 72 1926 76 2016 60 1911
1936 1904
RECORDS FOR 07-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 98 1952 67 1984 74 1877 55 1911
1895
KCLT 103 1952 72 1984 77 1993 59 1920
KGSP 104 1952 70 1984 76 1949 59 1911
1936
RECORDS FOR 07-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1954 68 1936 72 2011 54 2014
1878 1897
1895
KCLT 101 2011 71 1981 77 1953 58 1914
1941
KGSP 101 1999 73 1981 77 2011 60 1914
1911
1884
RECORDS FOR 07-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 95 1999 65 1936 71 2011 53 1986
1914
KCLT 100 1999 69 1936 77 1941 56 1914
1931 1931
1915
KGSP 104 1999 71 2014 78 1999 56 1936
1931
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...