192
FXUS62 KGSP 081937
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
237 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will stall across the area today, doing little to curb
above-normal temperatures.  A stronger cold front will arrive on
Monday, resulting in rain.  Dry high pressure and above-normal
temperatures will return through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 232 PM Friday: The cold front continues to sag south of I-85
this afternoon, but was getting more diffuse with time. The HRRR
continues to spit out a few showers over the Upstate into the early
part of the evening, and the mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of
sfc-based CAPE available, but the satellite imagery has the enhanced
cu situated along the Fall Line as of 19Z. That would suggest
the chances for a few showers are low across our fcst area, and
our fcst will remain dry. Meanwhile, near-record or record warmth
will continue through the remainder of the afternoon as increasing
downslope removes more clouds and contributes to the warming.

Over the next 24 hours, a progressive upper ridge downstream of
the impressive upper low lifting northeast across the Plains will
support sfc high pressure getting pushed across the Great Lakes
region. The high will bridge the Appalachians this evening and
begin to advect drier air down from the north, to the point where
the usual mtn valley fog should not develop. The air mass change
will also be relatively slow, as low temps tonight will still be on
the order of ten degrees above normal across the region. As we get
into Saturday, though, we should be finally noticing the air mass
change as the sfc high transits the region where cold air damming
parent highs usually hang out across Upstate NY. Guidance suggests
that any E/SE return flow of moisture may not begin until after
sunset on Saturday evening, so this might be a more wedge-like
scenario than a true cold air damming scenario, and the high
temp forecast bears that out with values that still run about a
category above normal with some sun expected in the afternoon,
at least over the western Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 138 PM EDT Friday: By Saturday night, the axis of surface high
pressure will already be pulling to our east, resulting in a return
to easterly low-level winds.  Deep moisture looks anemic at first,
but should slowly build back in during the day Sunday.  Weak
southeasterly isentropic ascent will reinforce a shallow CAD
configuration Sunday and Sunday night...keeping highs in the upper
50s for most of the CWA and barely permitting any cooling Sunday
night.  Model consensus depicts some warming on Monday, with highs
back in the 70s Monday afternoon as high pressure pulls off the Mid-
Atlantic coast and the CAD deteriorates.  Ensembles suggest,
however, that highs could wind up as much as a category cooler
Monday, depending on how effectively the CAD breaks down and how
long cloud cover persists into the day.  Certainly, by later in the
day Monday, we should be more solidly locked into a prefrontal
trough, as a cold front approaches from the northwest late in the
day.  Rain looks likely with this, and even a rumble of thunder
could mix in...but this will be highly dependent on how quickly CAD
scatters out and the exact configuration of the advancing boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday: Multiple large-scale features will impact
the forecast area during the extended period, but neither is
expected to cause hazardous weather.  The first, a cold front, will
likely arrive Monday night.  QPF response is variable at this range,
but doesn`t appear impactful.  Then, expect drying on Monday as a
fast-moving high pressure system slides across the upper Ohio Valley
and into New England.  By Wednesday, we`ll be back in an easterly
flow regime, though the parent high will be far enough removed from
the Carolinas that it should have a barely-noticeable impact on
temperatures...which look to remain above normal.  The second active
weather feature will arrive in the form of a second, fast-moving
cold front either Wednesday night or Thursday, and should bring
another slug of rainfall to the area.  Most of the ensemble guidance
then depicts stout high pressure filtering in, and allowing
temperatures to become more seasonably cool toward the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A weak cold front was located along the I-85
corridor, with a cu field developed along/S of the boundary. Some
of the terminals could have a temporary MVFR ceiling for the next
few hours, but for the most part VFR will prevail. Wind should be
NW to N. High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, and
lingering moisture could keep a VFR bkn ceiling across the region
during the evening hours. The risk of visibility restrictions is
low. Any cloudiness should scatter out Saturday morning, while
the wind continues to veer around to NE.

Outlook: Additional showers and associated restrictions are possible
Sunday and into early next week as another wedge pattern develops
over the western Carolinas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 11-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      78 2023     39 1976     58 2000     18 1967
                1980        1951
   KCLT      81 2023     45 1976     64 1888     25 1967
   KGSP      82 2023     50 1991     60 1895     23 1903
                1915        1976
                            1971

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...