881
FXUS62 KGSP 220238
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
938 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will pass across the Great Lakes into the weekend,
resulting in gusty northwest winds that will bring snow showers to
portions of the mountains through Saturday morning. As low pressure
departs on Saturday, high pressure will arrive from the west that
will bring a gradual warming trend into the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 935 PM EST Thursday: Widespread snow showers moving into the
NC mountains as seen on regional radar and obs. These will scatter
out before another round of snow showers move in after midnight.
Cloudy and windy conditions will continue across most of the rest of
the NC mountains. Winds are slowly diminishing outside of the
mountains but gusts will linger in a few locations overnight. Temps
are running a little warmer than expected but should cool to
forecast lows by morning. Snow accums and Winter Wx Advisory on
track.

Through this evening, chances for snow shower activity will increase
as moisture off of Lake Michigan arrives. Snow shower activity will
start off as light on-and-off bands this afternoon and evening. The
heavier bands will arrive after sunset and will persist through the
night, which is when the highest accumulations will occur. With high
pressure moving in from the west on Friday, snow shower activity
will begin to diminish, though flurries flying through the air will
remain possible into Friday evening. No changes at this time with
the current Winter Weather Advisory. Snow will diminish quickly
further east of the advisory area in the downslope windflow.

The other concern through the period will be gusty winds given the
passage of deep low pressure across the Great Lakes region through
Friday. Speeds will diminish somewhat by sunset across the Piedmont
to 10 mph or less, but will remain gusty west of the Blue Ridge,
possibly to 40 mph in a few spots, as another wave of energy passes
across the Appalachians tonight.

The arrival of chilly Canadian air will push temperatures tonight
generally into the low to mid 20s for areas west of the Blue Ridge,
while lows further east will hold in the low to mid 30s. Expect
cooler temperatures on Friday as well, again due to the passage of
upper level low pressure. Friday afternoon highs will reach into the
upper 40s to mid 50s east of the Blue Ridge, but will hold in the
low 40s to the 30s further west, even struggling to reach above
freezing in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Thursday: Period starts off Friday night with
lingering enhanced NW gradient winds and some continued chances of
upslope snow showers on the SW extent of the departing strong upper
low and wrap-around moisture field mainly impacting the Blue Ridge.
This should be tapering off by Saturday morning as ridging builds in
under NW flow aloft and the mountains should gradually scatter out
of the cold advection stratocu.

Saturday high temps should start to rebound with generally 40s to
low 50s in the mountains and upper 50s to low 60s in the Piedmont
and with winds becoming more lax by afternoon. Sunday looks quite
pleasant as near zonal flow and continued ridging allows for temps
to moderate even warmer with many locations in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: The next main influencing feature will be
an approaching elongated front that loses phase from another upper
low centered near the Canadian border. This will allow for increased
precip chances later Monday into Tuesday as it pushes south and
becomes more moisture starved. With a rather warm airmass though
stable the precip type is expected to be just rain this time. QPF
values look to be rather light with most locations under a quarter
of an inch. There looks to be a shortlived break in precip late
Tuesday, then moisture advection kicks in again along the southern
stream of the upper flow with zonal to gradual amplification from
the west Wednesday into Thursday. Have slight to low chance pops for
showers Wednesday then increased chances Thursday. Thermal columns
look to remain too warm so expecting the liquid variety in this
setup.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Clouds moving out of the Piedmont, but some
VFR clouds may still break containment and spread across the
terminals through the period, especially at KHKY/KCLT Friday
afternoon. Low VFR clouds will move up the valley to KAVL this
evening with MVFR possible around daybreak. Low VFR then scatters
out at KAVL through the afternoon. Can`t rule out some flurries or
very light snow showers at KAVL overnight or early Friday, but
chance too low for the TAF. W to NW wind with low end gusts this
evening diminishes overnight. W to NW winds pick back up after
daybreak Friday with gusts redeveloping and continuing into the
afternoon. Speeds begin falling by late afternoon. KAVL will see
gusty NW winds throughout, with the highest speeds from mid morning
to late afternoon Friday.

Outlook: VFR outside of the mountains through Monday. KAVL may see
some low VFR or MVFR cigs as moisture pushes up the valley through
Friday night with VFR returning through Monday. A weak cold front
crossing the area Tuesday may bring scattered rain showers and
associated restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-
     048>052.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/RWH
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...RWH