492
FXUS62 KGSP 040611
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC
211 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure remains over the region through tonight
before a surface low pressure system brings rain chances back
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will approach out of the
northwest this weekend into early next week, keeping unsettled
weather around.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 207 AM EDT Wednesday: Southeasterly flow continues to support
upslope cloud development along the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment
and in the favorable slope orientations. Starting to see more low
stratus develop south of the Charlotte area and will likely become
more expansive across the Piedmont throughout the overnight.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

The latest IR satellite imagery is still showing a broad area of
cloud cover to our south over Florida and the SE Coast. We can
expect the mid/upper ridge axis situated over the region to continue
to put a lid on any shower development over our area thru the
morning. The ridge is expected to steadily pivot into the Mid-
Atlantic thru the period, as the upper low cen-tered over the
eastern Gulf wobbles north to the Florida Panhandle. Low level flow
turning to the SE will allow a shallow area of moisture to surge
into the fcst area toward daybreak on Wednesday. Clouds are expected
to be stubborn to erode across the southern 1/3 of the CWA during
the daylight hrs, which should result in a pause in the warming
trend across this area, as high temps are expected to be just below
normal, while highs should be near-normal across our northern zones.
PoPs increase from the south later in the day (topping out in the 30
to 50% range for most of our area, as the mid-level ridge axis
shifts north and convection associated with the upper low makes a
run toward the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Expected

2) Cooler with Below Normal Highs on Thursday before Warmer and
Above Normal Highs Return Friday

A sfc low pressure system will skirt the Carolina coast while a cold
front approaches out of the northwest through the short term,
allowing unsettled weather to continue. How far west moisture
associated with the sfc low will push continues to be the main
question, although the 00Z HRRR/NAMNest generally show moisture
reaching most of the forecast area (with the exception of the SW NC
mountains and the NC/TN border). Thus, have the highest PoPs east of
these locations through Thursday. As the cold front slowly sinks out
of the Midwest/Ohio Valley Friday into Friday night, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase, mainly across the mountains.
Thus, have the highest PoPs in place across the mountains Friday
into Friday night. The severe threat should remain low on Thursday
due to limited instability and low wind shear. The severe threat
will be a bit more elevated on Friday as wind shear and instability
increase slightly ahead of the cold front. Highs on Thursday will
end up a few to several degrees below normal, rebounding back to a
few degrees above normal by Friday. Lows each night will end up a
few to several degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather and Above Normal Temperatures Continue

2) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible Over the Weekend

The aforementioned cold front in the short term will continue
sinking southeast towards the western Carolinas on Saturday before
pushing into the northern and western zones on Sunday. The front
will then stall across the forecast area early next week. This will
act to keep unsettled weather around, with better chances for
thunderstorms compared to the short term. Strong to severe storms
are possible during the afternoon/evening hours on both Saturday and
Sunday thanks to decent instability and higher wind shear developing
ahead of the front. The severe threat looks to be lower for early
next week thanks to both lower wind shear and the environment
becoming more favorable for heavy rainfall. Temperatures will
generally remain above normal through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued upslope clouds due to southeasterly
flow may break containment throughout the night and traverse over
the terminals in spurts. Otherwise, high clouds grow in coverage
overnight through the morning hours as a weak tropical disturbance
over Florida gradually lifts north. Better moisture moves into the
area and guidance have hinted of a quick expansive area of low
stratus across the Piedmont just before daybreak. MVFR cigs are
expected, with IFR possible as well with the best chance being
KCLT/KHKY. The low stratus deck should gradually lift back to VFR
and eventually scatter out by late morning as daytime mixing gets
going. Based on the orientation of the tropical wave, winds will be
east-southeasterly across the TAF sites at 6-10 kts. Daytime
stratocu is expected once again during peak heating. Light precip
will eventually move in from the south late afternoon into the
evening hours and should grow in coverage overnight tonight.
Included a PROB30 at all terminals, with the best chances being
across the Upstate and KCLT as the tropical disturbance remains well
east of the area and the rain shield struggles to expand far west.
Model guidance hint at another round of possible MVFR/IFR cigs
tonight and confidence is high enough for a TAF mention at the end
of the 06Z TAF period.

Outlook: Chances for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms will
increase late in the week, as will the potential for late night/
early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CAC