767
FXUS62 KGSP 170021
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
821 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast was updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday for Upstate SC,
northeast Georgia, and the Charlotte Metro area. Hot and humid
weather continues for most of the week, with triple digit heat
index likely over the low terrain each afternoon.
2. Diurnal convection develops each afternoon this week, with
some strong to severe storms as well as isolated nuisance flooding
possible each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday for
Upstate SC, northeast Georgia, and the Charlotte Metro area. Hot
and humid weather continues for most of the week, with triple digit
heat index likely over the low terrain each afternoon.

Stout subtropical ridging slowly retrogrades thru the period, but
not fast enough to significantly lower heights and thicknesses until
later in the week or next weekend. With the continued heat and
humidity, another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday. There
may be enough of a break in the heat or humidity to limit the extent
of the Advisories for Tuesday and Wednesday, but that`s uncertain at
this time.

The guidance continues to suggest a trof forming over the eastern
CONUS for next weekend which would allow temps to drop to near or
even below normal.


Key message 2: Diurnal convection develops each afternoon this week,
with some strong to severe storms as well as isolated nuisance
flooding possible each day.

The moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across the area
through at least the middle of the week. With steep low level lapse
rates, high DCAPE and PW values, wet microbursts will be possible
with any storm that can grow tall enough. Severe storm coverage
could be higher of Monday with an increase in bulk shear potentially
leading to some organization.

By Thursday or Friday, a trof developing over the eastern CONUS
could bring a period of more widespread daily convection as a series
of shortwaves and a slow moving cold front impact the area into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Other than a few lingering showers just
south of KGSP, all of the convective activity has dissipated
across our fcst area this evening. Expect mainly cirrus overnight
with another round of mtn valley fog and low stratus. There`s a
decent chance that the restrictions will reach KAVL, thus I have
prevailing MVFR conditions beginning around 08z with a TEMPO for
IFR/LIFR from roughly 09 to 13z. Also have MVFR visby at KHKY
beginning around 08z, but confidence is lower there. Any restric-
tions should dissipate by late morning. The only terminals that
have a mention of showers/thunderstorms for tomorrow are KAVL with
a PROB30 for TSRA, and KCLT with just a VCSH. Most of the near-term
guidance has the best coverage over the mtns tomorrow. Otherwise,
winds will generally be light and VRB to calm overnight. They will
pick up from the W to NW Monday afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms and their associated
flight restrictions will be possible each afternoon/evening thru
Tues. Low stratus and fog will be possible each morning, especially
in the mtn valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ070>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.

&&

$$

JPT/RWH