316
FXUS62 KGSP 091140
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
640 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will push through the area Sunday, filtering in
an arctic airmass Sunday night through Tuesday. Mountain snow along
the NC/TN border is expected Sunday night through Monday.
Temperatures gradually rebound after Tuesday, with dry conditions
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Sunday: A Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier this
morning for most of our NE GA counties and the western Upstate. It
is in effect until 9 AM EST, but visibilities have been improving
thanks to increasing SW flow and debris cloudiness from a few
showers that tracked across northern GA. If trends hold, the DFA
may be canceled a little early.

Otherwise...A series of embedded shortwaves are currently carving
out a very deep upper trough over the Northern Plains to the
Mid-MS Valley. This trough close off into a large vortex roughly
over the Chicago area tonight. An attendant arctic cold front
is currently pushing into the OH and TN valleys this morning,
while a stalled front continues to bisect the CWFA near the
NC/SC border. Some clearing in the skies south of the front has
allowed for patchy dense fog in the Upstate and NE GA. However,
areas of mid clouds continue to develop and make the fog variable
and limiting its expansion. Guidance still has these mid clouds
breaking up and shifting east thru daybreak, which may allow
for more widespread fog development that may expand into the NC
foothills and Piedmont. Confidence remains too low to issue a
Dense Fog Advisory, but one may be needed for parts of the CWFA
at some point early this morning.

The arctic front will be pushing into the mountains after 12z
this morning and quickly cross the rest of the forecast area by
late aftn. CAA will ramp up even ahead of the sfc front, allowing
for deepening mixing and gusty SW winds across the entire area
today. Winds will shift to NW with the fropa and remain gusty thru
this evening. Low clouds should clear out, but some mix of mid and
high clouds will continue in the SWLY flow ahead of the deepening
trough. Temps will start out mild and top out in the lower to mid
70s east of the mountains, then start falling this aftn. A few
showers may develop within the westerly upslope flow along the TN,
starting out as rain, mixing in some snow in the highest elevations
late aftn.

A leading vort lobe associated with the upper trough will cross
the Southern Appalachians tonight, bringing a round of strong
forcing and veering the low-level flow out of the NW. Moisture and
falling temps should result in scattered to numerous snow showers
in the NW-flow upslope areas overnight. The Smokies could see a few
inches of snow in the highest elevations. The rest of the TN border
counties above 3500 ft could see 1-3" by 12z Monday. Therefore,
Winter Wx Headlines will start at 00z this evening (with more on
that in the next section). Lows will drop below freezing in all
the mountains, and mid to upper 30s across the Piedmont. Widespread
frost is unlikely due to lingering wind overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 AM EST Sunday: Deep, very dynamic upper trough will
dominate the eastern half of the country as we move into the short
term, with very strong CAA in place through the column under the
arctic upper low. An impressive upper jet and associated vort max
will swing around the base of the trough, with a stronger vort lobe
associated with the closed upper low digging towards the area. NW
flow across the mountains will lift the moisture along the TN border
leading to accumulating snow (possibly significant) at the highest
elevations, especially given the high snow ratios upwards of 20:1 in
some areas. Steep lapse rates between the surface and 850mb to start
the period, stretching up to above 700mb by Monday evening are
progged to actually bring some instability to WNC, increasing snow
rates. This will also serve to help with momentum transfer to the
surface, and this with a strong surface gradient in place will lead
to gusty winds across the area. All this combined with the very cold
temperatures to make for a rough day Monday along the TN border.
It`s possible some snow may make it to the ground in the valleys,
but in general the accumulating snow will be limited to >3500ft if
not slightly higher. Current snowfall totals through Monday night
generally range from 3-8" along the border and favored upslope
areas, especially in the Smokies where higher totals are certainly
not out of the question, with these amounts well supported by
ensemble guidance. With wind gusts ranging from 35-45mph, blizzard
conditions will be possible in the aforementioned higher elevations
along the TN border. New Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather
Advisory hoisted for high elevations in the near-term will continue
through daybreak Tuesday.

Other story is the very very cold temperatures. Extremely strong and
deep CAA on Monday will overcome any downsloping with the NW winds,
with highs in the 40s across the Piedmont and barely getting above
freezing in the mountain valleys. With this, any snow that falls
will certainly stick in those higher elevations, especially as
temperatures plummet Monday night. Across the Piedmont, lows will
drop to the mid 20s, with teens in the mountains. Add the continued
wind with the strong pressure gradient and wind chills will be 10 or
more degrees colder than ambient temperatures. Still just a bit warm
for Cold Weather Advisory, but have issued a Freeze Watch for the
NC/SC/GA Piedmont zones that are not already turned off for Tuesday
morning.

Not much recovery in high temperatures for Veteran`s Day across the
Piedmont, though the mountains will see some improvement as the more
significant CAA pushes east. Any lingering show showers will have
lifted north before sunrise. Winds will drop off during the day as
well. Cold again Tuesday night but 8-10 degrees warmer than Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Sunday: Much quieter for the extended, with
moderating temperatures as the upper trough axis shifts east of the
area and the surface high pressure (now down along the Gulf coast)
modifies. A shortwave will pass to our north during the day on
Wednesday, reinforcing the surface pressure gradient and allowing
winds to tick back up again during the day. Downsloping conditions
will begin to dominate, and temperatures will warm significantly
Wednesday, a good 15 degrees warmer than Veteran`s day and just a
hair below seasonal normals. Temperatures continue to moderate
through the end of the period as the upper trough finally shifts
east in response to a building ridge over the center of the country.
Dry through the period, and will have to monitor for fire weather
concerns as RHs drop off.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread LIFR stratus across the area to
start the 12z TAFs, with IFR vsby that has been generally improving
from the dense fog that was occurring earlier. Conditions should
improve fairly quickly this morning, as mixing ramps up ahead of an
approaching cold front. SW winds will become gusty by late morning,
with frequent gusts of 20-25 kt expected at all sites. Winds
will shift to NW with the frontal passage in the 22-24z time
frame. Winds will remain gusty thru the evening. NW flow showers
will ramp up along the TN border with potential low-VFR or even
MVFR clouds reaching KAVL by 06z tonight. Precip chances at KAVL
are too low to mention, but a brief snow shower overnight cannot
be ruled out. East of the mountains, clearing skies expected with
gusts dying down after midnight.

Outlook: Gusty winds and low clouds and RA/SN showers in the
mountains will linger thru Monday. Outside the mountains, dry
weather is expected, with gusty winds each aftn thru Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028.
     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-504-506-508-510.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ033-048>050-052-058.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ051.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ010-
     101>109.
     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     SCZ008>014-019-104>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK