205
FXUS62 KGSP 220205
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1005 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoP trends updated based on radar and latest forecast guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Convection will slowly move south into the early overnight.
2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Convection will slowly move south into the early
overnight.

Convection is weakening as it moves south across the area. The
storms are showing decent speed; however, they are very efficient
rainfall producers. Therefore, some heavy rainfall remains possible.
The severe threat has diminished but can`t rule out a rogue strong
storm. Convection should end or move out of the area shortly after
midnight, but some showers may linger overnight.


Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week,
with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek.

Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air moves into the area
by Sunday, shunting rain chances for a a few days. As a surface high
migrates eastward over the Midwest and into the northeast portion of
the country, reduced moisture and air from the north contribute to a
welcomed break in heat as temperatures look to dip into the 80s for
most of the area through the end the forecast period. As the high
moves offshore by midweek, moisture slowly starts to return and
increases rain chances once again. Mostly expecting the typical
summertime afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity to resume.
Overall, calmer and slightly cooler weather ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Second round of convection moving out of the
mountains and into the foothills and piedmont at this time. It has
cleared KAVL, although a shower is possible through early evening,
and is on the doorstep of KHKY/KGSP/KGMU. Have short TEMPOs there.
The convection may reach KCLT so PROB30 continues there. Least
chance at KAND, so no TSRA mention for now. Guidance still insistent
on MVFR then IFR cigs developing overnight. They also suggest mainly
MVFR vsby, with IFR to LIFR at KAVL/KHKY. Show all of this in the
TAFs. Slow improvement after daybreak with VFR all areas by 17Z.
Only isolated convection expected Saturday, so no mention at this
time. Southeasterly wind this evening becomes light and variable
overnight, then light SW, NNW at KAVL, on Saturday.

Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/RWH