447
FXUS62 KGSP 081747
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1247 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalls across the area today but well above normal
temperatures will continue. Dry high pressure builds in from the
north on Saturday before a strong cold front brings rain chances
back to the area Sunday into Monday. High temperatures will be much
cooler this the weekend, with afternoon temperatures on Sunday
expected to fall below normal, before highs trend back to above
normal values early next week. Dry high pressure returns behind the
departing front Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1232 PM Fri: The cold front was sagging south of I-85 at noon,
with the thicker cu field along/S of the boundary. The fcst appears
to be in good shape. The model data still wants to spit out a few
showers mainly over that same area early this evening, but the front
will probably already be to our south, so the fcst will be kept dry.

Otherwise...Winds will remain light for the most part this
afternoon, trending northwesterly. Appreciable post-frontal drying
looks unlikely to set in until tonight. We will experience unusually
warm temps again today, as we`re having an exceptionally warm
start--daybreak temps already near normal highs--plus thicknesses
remain elevated and downslope flow will be an additional warming
factor. Max temps will be near 80 across most of the Piedmont again
today and will come close to daily records (see below). The cold
front will settle south this afternoon and evening. Lapse rates
are poor, but very skinny CAPE is shown on some profiles and a few
models spit out very light showers in the mid to late afternoon
as the front pushes through. Most likely just cumulus will result,
so no shower mention is included. Winds will turn to the NE tonight
and increase as CAA develops. Temps still are expected to bottom
out more than 10 above normal tonight; dewpoints will fall back
to more seasonable values overnight and with that and wind, fog
is not expected, perhaps excepting some of the SW mountain valleys
where the drying is least effective.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Cooler Temperatures Return this Weekend with Below Normal High
Temperatures Expected on Sunday

2) No Frost/Freeze Concerns this Weekend Thanks to Well Above Normal
Low Temperatures

3) Dry Conditions Linger through Saturday but Rain Chances Increase
Ahead of a Cold Front Sunday into Sunday Night

Dry high pressure builds into the Carolinas from the north on
Saturday while upper-level ridging remains in place over the
Southeast. Although temperatures will be noticeably cooler on
Saturday due to cold air damming, highs will still end up ~3-6
degrees above climo. Both the sfc high and the upper ridge will push
off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic late Saturday into
Sunday as a cold front tracks across the central US. This will allow
for an influx of moisture across the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia Sunday into Sunday night. Rain chances will gradually
increase from west to east during this timeframe, but have the
highest PoPs north of I-85 for now. Cloud cover, rain, and cold air
damming will all work together to limit highs on Sunday with
afternoon temperatures expected to end up a few degrees below climo.
Lows Saturday night will end up ~7-12 degrees above climo thanks to
increasing cloud cover. Lows Sunday night will end up ~15 degrees
above climo thanks to cloud cover and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain Chances Linger through Late Monday as a Cold Front Tracks
Across the Area

2) Above Normal High Temperatures Return Early Next Week

3) Drier Conditions Return Tuesday into Wednesday with Rain Chances
Returning as Early as Thursday

Rain chances will be likely ongoing Monday morning, lingering
through at least Monday evening, as a cold front tracks across the
forecast area. High temperatures on Monday will rebound to ~10
degrees above normal thanks to SW/W`ly flow ahead of the cold front
and gradually decreasing cloud cover as the front scours out the
cold air damming. Drier and cooler conditions are expected Tuesday
into Wednesday as dry high pressure builds into the region from the
north. A cold front will gradually approach out of the west on
Wednesday before tracking across the forecast area on Thursday.
However, the global model guidance is not in good agreement
regarding the timing of the moisture associated with the front. The
latest GFS and Canadian show rain arriving Wednesday evening/night
while the latest ECMWF does not show rain arriving until Thursday
afternoon. With global model guidance split on the timing of the
front, confidence on PoPs will be low from Wednesday evening onward.
Thus, capped PoPs to chance (50% or less) for now. High temperatures
will remain above normal area-wide through Wednesday. Below normal
highs return to the mountains on Thursday, with above normal
temperatures continuing east of the mountains. Low temperatures will
remain a few to several degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A weak cold front was located along the I-85
corridor, with a cu field developed along/S of the boundary. Some
of the terminals could have a temporary MVFR ceiling for the next
few hours, but for the most part VFR will prevail. Wind should be
NW to N. High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, and
lingering moisture could keep a VFR bkn ceiling across the region
during the evening hours. The risk of visibility restrictions is
low. Any cloudiness should scatter out Saturday morning, while
the wind continues to veer around to NE.

Outlook: Additional showers and associated restrictions are possible
Sunday and into early next week as another wedge pattern develops
over the western Carolinas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 11-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      78 2023     39 1976     58 2000     18 1967
                1980        1951
   KCLT      81 2023     45 1976     64 1888     25 1967
   KGSP      82 2023     50 1991     60 1895     23 1903
                1915        1976
                            1971

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...