Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
087
FXUS62 KGSP 031747
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1247 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures today with cloud cover being more persistent
than previously forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold air damming weakens today but looks to keep temperatures
relatively cool. Abundant surface moisture may allow formation of
dense fog tonight that could impact the Wednesday morning commute.
2. Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions
through the weekend with rain chances possible by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cold air damming weakens today but looks to keep
temperatures relatively cool. Abundant surface moisture may allow
formation of dense fog tonight that could impact the Wednesday
morning commute.
Late-stage cold-air damming persists over the region, with parent
high still strong at ~1040mb but now centered over the Atlantic,
off the New England coast. Moist southerly flow is occurring
over the wedge, which produced low stratus over much of the area
early this morning. Wedge inversion is shallow, below 3000 ft AGL
across NC/SC and NE GA, with northeasterly flow occurring up to
around that level. The stratus are trapped under the inversion,
proving stubborn. As long as they persist, the wedge likely will as
well, although the chance of precip is minimal. Seeing some thin
patches south of I-85 near the Savannah River and in the northern
NC foothills. That could lead to holes forming, which would be
expected to expand at least slightly with time. Higher cloud cover
should diminish with 850mb RH decreasing this afternoon, allowing
insolation to warm the cloud layer as well. All these noted,
per short-term model progs, these developments look unlikely to
occur early enough in the day to allow our previous fcst max temps
to be reached. Those values have accordingly been lowered; maxes
are now at or below 60 in most of the Piedmont. The lower parts
of the French Broad and Little TN valleys, near the TN border,
look to be the warmest parts of the CWA today.
The afternoon cloud cover forecast also makes tonight`s forecast
more challenging. Even the more wedge-sensitive guidance has winds
turning southerly (but remaining light) this afternoon as the parent
high loses influence. The southerly flow likely will be associated
with near-surface moisture advection, and potentially areas of fog
developing overnight, toward daybreak Wed. However, the persistence
of stratus could keep sfc temps elevated and inhibit the decoupling
necessary for dense fog; most guidance with fog tonight does so
where skies manage to clear in the late afternoon or evening. Thus
the most likely location of any dense fog currently looks to be
areas south of I-85, where the wedge has least influence, as well
as the northern foothills due to the aforementioned thinning.
Though a moist boundary layer will remain in place Wednesday,
925mb thermal advection turns neutral and the parent high even
more distant, so we will advertise scattering clouds and warming
reflective of the spring or early-summer like pattern, with max
temps in the lower-mid 70s.
Key message 2: Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry
conditions through the weekend with rain chances possible by Sunday.
A strong Bermuda High, a pattern generally typical in the summer
months, remains fixated off the Carolina coast and well over the
region through at least Monday. Current guidance retains weak
southerly/southwesterly flow and very slow moisture return through
the end of the forecast period. The persistent high pressure keeps
temperatures well above normal everyday and rain chances away until
the weekend. Guidance has trended drier, but depicts an eastward
shift of the high pressure. If this occurs, more moisture could
advect into the region along the western fringe. This has the
potential to increase rain chances on Saturday, though confidence
remains low. By Sunday, model guidance lifts an area of low pressure
across the northern Plains and drag a weak cold front towards the
area, also increasing rain chances. Additionally, depending on
when/if this front can make it into the CWA, there could be a low
chance for thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cold-air damming hanging on by a thread
across the region, but with inversion remaining strong and moist
over all sites except KAVL, restrictions will continue into the
afternoon. KAVL will see a few clouds at MVFR to low VFR level
though they are likely done with restrictions for today. Elsewhere
the existing stratus should gradually lift back to VFR and partially
scatter by late aftn or early evening. Winds generally will be
somewhat VRB as the shallow NE flow near the surface mixes with
light S to SW winds above the inversion, but SW sfc winds should
prevail by late afternoon, remaining there if not going calm/VRB
overnight. Not expecting moisture to completely mix out, and as
the SW winds will be associated with near-sfc moisture advection,
some areas of fog and low stratus remain possible overnight; cigs
likely to form at low VFR to MVFR level. Not confident enough to
go with IFR at KCLT or the SC sites due to that stratus looking
more likely than ground-based fog, although it cannot be completely
ruled out. KHKY is the exception with clearer skies going into the
night and potential for IFR radiation fog and/or stratus. Expecting
faster erosion of low clouds after daybreak Wed than what was seen
today, and winds to come up from the SW.
Outlook: Springlike weather pattern over the next several
days. Cannot rule out patchy overnight fog/stratus. Another cold
front may bring showers and associated restrictions for the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1955 20 1960 60 2004 5 1960
KCLT 84 1955 31 1960 62 1955 12 1960
1880
KGSP 80 1976 31 1960 61 2004 12 1960
1905 1976
1961
RECORDS FOR 03-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1908 28 1960 58 1961 5 1960
KCLT 80 2022 33 1901 62 1961 10 1960
KGSP 79 1974 37 1948 63 1961 16 1960
1915 1901
RECORDS FOR 03-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1974 23 1920 61 1956 15 1960
KCLT 85 1974 30 1899 63 2022 14 1899
1956
KGSP 83 1974 36 1920 62 1961 13 1901
1901 1956
RECORDS FOR 03-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 1974 23 1996 57 1921 8 1920
KCLT 84 1974 36 1989 59 1946 16 1920
KGSP 84 1974 35 1899 56 1921 14 1901
1899
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
CP/JCW