128
FXUS62 KGSP 150000
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Rain will arrive early Sunday morning and should become
widespread by late morning. Minimal hydro impacts from the rain
expected due to ongoing drought conditions.
2. Dry with a warming trend next week, perhaps warming to near
record levels by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Rain will arrive early Sunday morning and should
become widespread by late morning. Minimal hydro impacts from the
rain expected due to ongoing drought conditions.

Seeing the first waves of light precip spreading eastward aloft
early this evening, but the boundary layer remains so dry that
none of it appears to be reaching the ground. Eventually, during
the late evening and into the overnight hours, the column will
moisten and we could start to see some light rain reaching the
ground, but most places will remain dry or perhaps just have some
sprinkles before daybreak Sunday. Note there is an outside chance
that some of the higher elevations could have some light snow or
sleet at onset, but a quick changeover to rain should take place,
so no snow accum is expected.

For tonight, the area of low pressure pushes eastward across the
lower MS River basin. The low is expected to move slowly across
MS/AL/GA on Sunday, with a weak in-situ cold air damming wedge
remaining east of the mtns and the wedge/warm front attempting
to push into the lower Piedmont. Current trends bring slightly
higher rainfall amounts (0.5-1.5 inch) east of the mountains with
isolated higher amounts along the usual areas of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment. This rain is expected to be beneficial, what with
the widespread ongoing drought and very dry vegetation/soil. Not
anticipating much in the way of hydro impacts. A few of the models
also have a small amount (< 50 J/kg) of sbCAPE in the southern
zones of the CWA Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Confidence
is very low on the instability coming to fruition, but cannot rule
out a brief rumble of thunder or higher rain rates in those southern
zones. Rain timing starts with scattered showers overnight and then
a widespread steady rain spreading from SW to NE after daybreak
Sunday. The system should have rain tapering off west to east and
be out of the area between 9PM Sunday to 1AM Monday morning. Behind
the system, dry air returns and cuts off precipitation chances
once again.


Key message 2: Dry with a warming trend next week, perhaps warming
to near record levels by Thursday.

As our Sunday rainmaker departs by Monday, the northerly sfc
pressure gradient will weaken and in concert with the influx of deep
layered dry air, maximum temperatures will be boosted to 8-10 deg F
above climo.

Upper heights atop the SE CONUS will rise through midweek as a
warming llvl WSWly flow develops.  Under broad flat ridging aloft,
no pcpn is expected as piedmont maximum temperatures rise into the
middle 70s...near the mid February records.  It remains to be seen
whether developing baroclinic zone can make any inroads into the
cwfa on Friday, or perhaps develop enough weak instability to aid in
any shower development.  But the bigger news to round out the
workweek, is we are expecting one more day of near record warmth.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions thru the end of operations
this evening, with thickening mid-level clouds, and most likely
still VFR when operations ramp up in the pre-dawn hours as it will
take some time for developing light rain to bring the ceiling/vis
down enough to cause a restriction. Will handle the uncertainty at
onset with a PROB30. But, when it does, conditions will deteriorate
rapidly down through MVFR to IFR in the mid/late morning. Cannot
rule out most terminals dropping to LIFR on the ceiling in the
afternoon on Sunday and staying there through the rest of the
period, but will stay more optimistic for this issuance and for the
time being and keep most places IFR until the late afternoon. Wind
will start out light SE, but probably will shift to E/NE once the
precip really starts and we get that response to the development
of a cold air damming wedge in place.

Outlook: Rain and associated IFR or lower restrictions remain into
Sunday night. Restrictions improve Monday as dry conditions return
and persist through the first part of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/CSH/PM