379
FXUS62 KGSP 061111
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
711 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain total amounts through Thursday morning have trended slightly
less for most of the area, with an uptick in the western NC
mountains.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cold front arrives today and produces scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, and again
Thursday afternoon. Isolated large hail and damaging wind are
possible. Localized, brief heavy rainfall is also possible,
though any flood threat will be highly isolated.
2. Drier conditions return before rain chances increase Sunday
and into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: A cold front arrives today and produces scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, and again
Thursday afternoon.  Isolated large hail and damaging wind are
possible. Localized, brief heavy rainfall is also possible, though
any flood threat will be highly isolated.

Surface cold front, oriented from western PA to MS as of 7 AM,
will continue to approach the area this morning. CAMs have come
into slightly better agreement and it would appear light precip
and some embedded storms will cross the mountains this morning,
going on weak elevated instability. This initial activity looks to
fizzle without significant impacts other than much needed rainfall.

Convective loud debris looks to remain over the area through the
morning. Nevertheless diurnal destabilization will occur ahead
of the front across north MS/AL/GA and SE TN during the day in
a strongly sheared environment. Possibly due to lesser precip or
convective overturning in our area during the morning than once
depicted, SBCAPE has trended higher over our area in the afternoon,
and uninhibited SBCAPE persists into the evening, as sfc dewpoints
trend upward and low-level lapse rates improve. CAMs generally show
another round of storms developing first in the aforementioned areas
to our west, which then track into our CWA in the late afternoon and
evening. They continue to depict some streaks of updraft helicity
developing, particularly near the intersection of TN/GA/NC, possibly
due to those storms firing along a differential heating boundary or
the outflow from the morning convective activity and being exposed
to better low level helicity. Strong deep layer shear (0-6km on
the order of 50 kt) along with sufficient instability looks to be
present to maintain such activity as it propagates eastward into
our area. Hodographs are generally straight or chaotic, and large
hail and damaging straightline wind from supercell storms appear
the primary threats; not confident the low-level curvature for a
notable tornado threat will be necessary, though LCLs appear lower
than they once had. The overall severe threat in our area appears
greatest over the southwesternmost NC counties, northeast GA, and
the western Upstate, but at least hail and wind threats would appear
to extend over the remainder of the CWA. The front will remain
relatively closely aligned to the shear vectors and storms appear
likely to evolve into linear segments, mainly tracking south and
east of the area by very early Thursday morning. REFS has a signal
for a swath of 1" to 2" total rainfall with the evening activity
mainly in the western zones. Still think the very dry antecedent
conditions should generally limit the flood threat, but if multiple
intense t-storms train over any areas as appears possible, can`t
rule out a localized flash flood threat esp. in urban areas.

Another lull is expected in the early part of the day Thursday, but
the front itself may not clear the CWA soon enough to inhibit some
diurnal destabilization ahead of it in the I-85 corridor or points
south. Any convection appears shallower but still strongly sheared
and with more dry air aloft, so storms still could be capable of
gusty winds, though the other threats would be appreciably less
compared to the previous evening.


Key message 2: Drier conditions return before rain chances increase
Sunday and into the start of next week.

High pressure slowly builds in behind the departing system from
Thursday. By Sunday, model guidance depicts a kink in the general
synoptic flow and bubbles up a series of shortwaves across the
southeast. At the surface, southerly winds advect moisture ahead of
a frontal boundary off to the west. Current guidance indicates a QPF
response with pre-frontal showers Sunday and into Monday. This looks
to be the next rainfall opportunity, but is too far out in the
forecast to pinpoint any details at this time. Long range models
show high pressure filtering in behind the front and maintaining a
calmer pattern to the end of the forecast period. Temperatures
should also remain warm and closer to normal for May, with a dip
behind the front and quick return to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Decaying convection in the form of -SHRA
looks to reach the NC mountains and KAVL around 13z, KHKY around
14z. Other sites could see a few sprinkles this morning but shower
impacts look unlikely enough to mention only as VCSH. Low VFR to
MVFR cumulus look to develop by late morning, though any morning
cig restrictions could mix back to VFR in early afternoon. Better
chance of SHRA/TSRA in the late afternoon, forming ahead of a cold
front, with the SC sites and KCLT likely enough to warrant a TEMPO
at that time, including gusty winds and IFR vsby. This is the most
likely time of significant TS impacts. Light rain is likely to
continue overnight after the peak TS chance, though where they
remain possible for a time after the TEMPO, used PROB30. SHRA
taper off from NW to SE across the terminal area after 12z Thu,
with WSHFT due to cold fropa now mentioned at KCLT at 14z Thu.

Outlook: Isolated/scattered showers and storms early Thu afternoon
as cold front pushes thru the remainder of the area, but confidence
is low on the overall coverage. VFR conditions return for Friday
before the next storm system threatens the area late in the weekend
or Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/JCW