478
FXUS62 KGSP 221903
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
203 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will spread over the area this weekend with a gradual
warming trend into early next week. A cold front will bring some
showers to the region on Tuesday and a second system may bring wet
conditions to the area for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) A Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory are in effect through
7 AM Saturday for parts of the NC Mountains.

2) Gusty winds outside the higher elevations through Friday night.

3) Dry and cool weather expected Saturday.

As of 200 PM EST Friday: A strong are of low pressure continues to
churn across the NE CONUS, bringing NW flow snow and gusty winds
across the mountains. A lull in activity at the TN/NC border, but
with a second wave expected this evening, this area is prone for
another round of snowfall. The area of low pressure bobbles toward
the east overnight, shifting the location of higher snow
accumulation toward the far northern counties. Guidance from the
HREF and CAMs has about another 0.5-1.5 inch possible through
Saturday morning. For this, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect through 7 AM Saturday. The other concern are the winds. This
strong low packs a tight 850mb pressure gradient, creating gusty
winds at the higher elevations. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph expected
outside the mountains with gusts up to 50mph at the higher
elevations likely through Saturday morning. For this, a Wind
Advisory is in effect from now through 7 AM Saturday. Once the low
lifts toward the NE and out of the area, a broad and calmer pattern
emerges for Saturday. Dry conditions prevail and winds decrease. The
excess dry air filtering in from the north keeps temperatures cool
today and starts to rebound back into the low 60s on Saturday.
Overnight temps across most of the CWA hover a few degrees above
freezing. Higher elevations can expect below freezing temps tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Friday: Mid level ridging and surface high
pressure will control our weather from Saturday night through
Monday. A warming trend will occur through the period with highs and
lows increasing each day. Highs on Monday could be as much as 10
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry through this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM EST Friday: A mid level trof and associated surface low
will move through the Great Lakes states Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will push a cold front through the area with a weakening
band of showers. The highest chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday
will be in the North Carolina mountains with a decreasing chance and
amounts east and south of the mountains.

In the wake of the frontal passage, temperatures will return to near
normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will settle
across the area for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Another system
will bring some showers across the region on Thanksgiving Day.
Colder conditions, likely below normal, will follow this system.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the TAF period across most terminals. A flurry of SN could occur
overnight at KAVL, but confidence is low. Either way, cigs are
expected to drop into the MVFR range around midnight through at
least 13z at KAVL, VFR elsewhere. With the strong area of low
pressure to the north, gusty N/NW winds peaking in the 15-25kts
range remain across all sites through the overnight hours. KAVL
gusts prevail 30+kts through the same time period. Winds should
start to decrease Saturday morning, but remain N/NW.

Outlook: VFR outside of the mountains through Monday. A weak cold
front crossing the area Tuesday and may bring scattered rain showers
and associated restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-
     048>052.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CP