488
FXUS62 KGSP 021735
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
135 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Weekend is trending slightly warmer, but remains near the norm.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few scattered showers and isolated mountain thunderstorms
through tonight.
2. Dry conditions return with a warming trend Wednesday through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: A few scattered showers and isolated mountain
thunderstorms through tonight.

An upper low off the northeast coast swings the trough off the east
coast as strong ridging shifts eastward. At the surface, high
pressure continues to amplify southward. A few benign showers and
thunderstorms are possible through a portion of the overnight hours
as a last hurrah before dry conditions settle in. Current guidance
shows the better chances (60-70%) for showers and thunderstorms
peaking over the mountains, especially the far western zones. QPF
response in these locations is also minimal, with anywhere from 0.01-
0.25" possible. If a storm gets going, there could also be locally
higher amounts. East of the mountains has a slight chance (15-35%)
for seeing a brief shower as well. Nothing severe is anticipated
given the northeast winds, drier air and decreased instability.


Key message 2: Dry conditions return with a warming trend Wednesday
through the weekend.

From Wednesday onward, the weather conditions flip back to a quiet
pattern through at least the weekend. Height rises with a ridge
sliding over the southeast and strong surface high pressure
amplifying over most of the eastern CONUS, shunts rain chances. Long
range guidance shows the potential for rain chances returning Day 7,
but this is generally model guidance clinging to climatology so
confidence is rather low. However, looking at the general pattern,
there could be a chance. For now, expect dry conditions and warming
temps returning to what is normal for this time of year through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the TAF period. A few -SHRA and VCSH could occur, mainly at
KAVL this afternoon before drier air moves in and reduces these
chances. Winds east of the mountains have low-end gusts of 15-20kts,
which should diminish by 00z. Wind direction prevails NE through the
period and remains light to VRB, especially for the mountains
terminals. Outside of any shower development, no vsby/cigs
restrictions are anticipated at this time.

Outlook: Dry conditions return and VFR remains into the weekend, but
some potential for daily morning mountain valley fog/low clouds.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP