Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
175
FXUS62 KGSP 031134
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
634 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have increased 10 to 20% for Saturday and Sunday, as
confidence is increasing on a front approaching from the northwest.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold air damming weakens today, but lingering moisture will
contribute to the possibility of patchy dense fog early Wednesday
morning that could impact the morning commute.
2. Well above normal temperatures for the rest of the week and
through the weekend. It will be generally dry, but rain chances
expected to return by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cold air damming weakens today, but lingering moisture
will contribute to the possibility of patchy dense fog early
Wednesday morning that could impact the morning commute.
A parent high situated off the New England Coast is expected to
drift farther offshore throughout the day while supporting a
relatively weak cold air damming wedge east of the mountains. The
lack of widespread measurable rainfall will keep the wedge
relatively weak on today, and so the guidance looks reasonable in
allowing temps to return back to normal in the mid/late afternoon.
If there is a concern in the near term, it might be the
potential for patchy dense fog early Wednesday morning over the
NC foothills. Moisture is expected to slowly increase Tuesday
afternoon as the low level flow veers around to light southerly
while upper levels dry out. A weak sfc high remnant may linger over
the western Carolinas, allowing for light/variable wind overnight,
setting the stage for fog development. Guidance from the HREF shows
the chances of visibility under one half mile to be 40-50 pct at
best, but the ingredients for patchy dense fog will be there. Low
temps will be seasonally mild.
Key message 2: Well above normal temperatures for the rest of the
week and through the weekend. It will be generally dry, but rain
chances expected to return by Sunday.
Upper ridge will build across the Southeast Wednesday, then shift
to the East Coast and continue amplifying thru the weekend, while
deep troughing occurs in the western CONUS. This pattern will allow
temps to ramp up to 15 to 20 deg above normal for the latter half of
the week and thru the weekend. Confidence continues to increase on
temps reaching the lower 80s across most of the Piedmont by Friday
and continuing thru at least Sunday. These will approach records,
especially March 6th, which has lower, more reachable record
highs. Dew points and min temps will increase as well, thanks
to a moist SWLY flow out of the Gulf, making for a summer-like
pattern. Lows may be close to our normal highs (near record high
minimums). Isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection may
begin Friday, increasing in coverage for Saturday and Sunday,
as a cold front sags southeast toward the CWFA. The latest NBM
has trended higher on PoPs over the weekend, with likely PoPs for
Sunday. It`s too early to say how much of a severe threat there
will be with any thunderstorms that develop, but there looks to
be a non-zero threat of at least a few strong storms, with some
bulk shear to go along with increasing instability.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR cigs are locked in across the terminals
as winds continue to flow from the east-northeast. Placed a
prevailing MVFR cig at all the TAF sites and kept the restriction
going through at least 18Z as guidance keeps the stubborn layer in
place without much scattering through the morning hours. Winds will
continue to run out of the northeast through the morning before
turning southeasterly by the afternoon at 4-8 kts. KAVL will
maintain a southerly component through much of the period. Cig
restrictions will scatter late in the afternoon, but guidance hints
at redevelopment tonight, with the possibility of fog developing at
terminals where the clouds scatter out more. As a result, brought
MVFR cigs back into the TAF by the end of the period, with a hint of
fog through daybreak Tuesday.
Outlook: VFR is expected to return on Wednesday, while another cold
front may bring showers and associated restrictions for the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1955 20 1960 60 2004 5 1960
KCLT 84 1955 31 1960 62 1955 12 1960
1880
KGSP 80 1976 31 1960 61 2004 12 1960
1905 1976
1961
RECORDS FOR 03-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1908 28 1960 58 1961 5 1960
KCLT 80 2022 33 1901 62 1961 10 1960
KGSP 79 1974 37 1948 63 1961 16 1960
1915 1901
RECORDS FOR 03-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1974 23 1920 61 1956 15 1960
KCLT 85 1974 30 1899 63 2022 14 1899
1956
KGSP 83 1974 36 1920 62 1961 13 1901
1901 1956
RECORDS FOR 03-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 1974 23 1996 57 1921 8 1920
KCLT 84 1974 36 1989 59 1946 16 1920
KGSP 84 1974 35 1899 56 1921 14 1901
1899
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
ARK/CAC/PM