072
FXUS62 KGSP 221458
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
958 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure lingers to the north resulting in gusty
northwest winds bring snow showers to portions of the North Carolina
mountains through tonight. High pressure spreads over the area this
weekend with a gradual warming trend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EST Friday: NW flow snow is well underway as the radar
shows multiple bands of snow near the TN/NC border and a narrow band
is quickly diminishing over the AVL area. Not expecting more than a
trace at best at AVL. Webcams at multiple areas along the TN/NC
border show lower visibility and snow continuing to fall. This is
expected to lighten over the next few hours, but pick back up later.
Other than that, forecast is still in good shape with a few
adjustments.

A spoke of vorticity will rotate around a large upper
low centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic, and cross the forecast
area early this morning. This feature is resulting in an uptick in
NW flow snow shower activity that will continue thru daybreak. Once
the vort lobe pivots east, there will be a lull in the snow showers
from late morning thru the aftn hours. But the upslope cloud cover
will continue, with periods of some mid and high clouds breaking
containment east of the mountains as well. Otherwise, it will be a
chilly day, with breezy conditions resuming across the entire
forecast area, and windy conditions in the mountains. Confidence has
increased that the northern NC mountains will see 45-50+ mph gusts
starting this aftn and continuing thru tonight, as the 850 mb flow
ramps up to near 50 kt in continued strong CAA. So have opted to
issue a Wind Advisory for Avery, Mitchell, and Yancey counties from
noon today to 7 AM EST Saturday. Another spoke of vorticity will
round the upper low tonight, and guidance is in decent agreement on
another round of NW flow snow showers starting this evening. This
round should be shorter-lived and additional snow accums should be
light. But with a Winter Weather Advisory already in effect, think
having it go thru 12z Saturday still looks good. Highs today will
stay in the 30s above 3500 ft and into the low-mid 40s in the rest
of the mountains, and upper 40s to lower 50s in the Piedmont. Lows
tonight expected to be not quite as cold as this morning`s forecast
lows, but still slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3:15 AM EST Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with heights beginning to rebound over our area as the
broad h5 low/trof lifts NE and off the mid-Atlantic Coast. For
the rest of the period, heights will continue to gradually in-
crease as relatively flat/zonal upper flow persists over our
region. At the sfc, the large/complex low pressure system that
had been bringing gusty winds and NW flow snow to our area will
be moving off the New England Coast by early Saturday. As it does,
broad high pressure will spread over our area from the west and
linger over the Southeast for the rest of the period. I do have
some lingering slight chance PoPs over the northern NC mtns for
the first few hrs of the period early Saturday, but profiles will
likely be too dry to produce much (if any) additional snow. Wind
gusts should also be diminishing by late Saturday morning. Other-
wise, the period should be dry with temperatures steadily reboun-
ding under the high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:55 AM EST Friday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on
Monday with relatively flat/zonal upper flow over the Southeast
CONUS and an upper trof approaching the Great Lakes from the west.
This trof axis is expected to pass to our north on Tues with more
zonal flow in its wake. By the end of the period late next week,
most of the long-range guidance suggests that another round of
broad upper trofing will begin to develop over the Great Lakes.
At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered just off the
SE Coast as the period begins early Monday. Over the next 12 to
24 hrs, a robust sfc low will lift up and over the Great Lakes
and push a cold front thru our area. The front is progged to be
south/east of our CWA by late Tuesday with high pressure briefly
spreading back over the area in its wake. The sfc pattern remains
progressive and another sfc low will quickly eject out of the
southern Plains by early Thursday and track just to our north
as the period is ending. The first front should produce a fairly
quick period of rain late Monday into early Tuesday with minimal
QPF expected. QPF for the next system later in the week is trend-
ing higher with the potential for a significant amount of precip
for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Peak NW flow snow shower activity at time
of 12z TAF issuance, with a few flurries at KAVL with MVFR cigs
possible this morning. Another round of NW flow showers and MVFR
cigs may affect KAVL again overnight tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected, with some low to mid VFR-level clouds
breaking containment and spreading across the Piedmont at times
thru this aftn. A W to NW wind will become gusty at all sites by
around 14z, peaking midday thru the aftn, with some weakening this
evening. The exception will be at KAVL, were gusty NNW winds up
the valley will persist thru the period.

Outlook: VFR outside of the mountains through Monday. KAVL may see
some low VFR or MVFR cigs as moisture pushes up the valley through
tonight with VFR returning Saturday through Monday. A weak cold
front crossing the area Tuesday may bring scattered rain showers
and associated restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-
     048>052.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...ARK/CP
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK