438
FXUS62 KGSP 060022
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
822 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward from the
Carolina coast tonight allowing brief drying to develop tonight into
early Friday. A cold front brings back scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this the weekend with a few possibly becoming strong
to severe, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Unsettled
weather will stick around through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday: A sfc wave continues to drift east
across central NC. This has taken the deeper moisture east of the
forecast area, and is resulting in some breaks in the clouds and
generally isolated to scattered showers.  Otherwise, the lower
theta-e air filtering in from the NW into the area tonight will
result in little in the way of precip chances beyond mid-evening or
so. Despite the flow turning to the NW, it`s looking unlikely that
this flow will be strong enough to completely scour the moisture
from the top-down, and forecast soundings mostly depict saturated
near-surface conditions under dry mid-levels. It`s therefore looking
like a good fog/low stratus setup tonight, with some potential for
at least patchy dense fog. Min temps will be a little above normal.

A radically different weather regime is in store for Friday, as any
low clouds will quickly mix out during the morning under W/NW low
level flow. Strong insolation and weak compressional warming will
result in max temps a good 5 degrees above normal, with highs of 90
expected across a good portion of the SC/GA/southern NC Piedmont.
This will result in good destabilization, with sbCAPE of at least
2000 J/kg by the time of peak heating. Scattered convection should
fire by mid-afternoon near the Blue Ridge and move E/SE into
the foothills during late afternoon. By the end of the period,
additional convection is likely to move into the CWA from east
Tennessee in advance of a short wave trough. General 50-60 PoPs
are advertised across the mountains...tapering to 20-30% across
the Piedmont. Instability should be sufficient to allow for a
few strong- to-severe storms, especially later in the day, when
improving wind fields are expected to result in deep layer shear
increasing to 25- 30 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Continues into the Weekend

2) Strong to Severe Storms Possible Each Afternoon and Evening

3) Breezy Winds will Develop Each Afternoon and Evening

An MCS will track across the forecast area Friday evening into
Friday night. A weakening trend is expected as it pushes across the
southern Appalachians so confidence on the severe weather potential
remains low, especially with the line coming through outside of peak
heating hours. A few strong to severe storms cannot be entirely
ruled out, mainly across the SW NC mountains Friday evening into
Friday night. The main hazard with any severe storms that manage to
develop are damaging wind gusts. Another round of convection will
develop well ahead of a cold front on Saturday afternoon and
evening, and with 1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of deep
layer shear in place, scattered strong to severe storms are
possible. SPC has the entire forecast area in a Slight Risk for
Saturday and this looks well placed. The main hazard with any severe
storms on Saturday will be damaging wind gusts. The cold front will
continue progressing eastward on Sunday, pushing across the western
half of the forecast area towards the end of the period. Another
round of strong to severe storms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours with similar parameters (compared to
Saturday) developing ahead of the front. Once again damaging wind
gusts look to be the main hazard with any severe storms that
develop. Breezy winds will develop each afternoon and evening
through the weekend ahead of the front but will remain well below
advisory criteria. Highs will end up 3-5 degrees above normal on
Saturday, climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s east of the
mountains. Highs on Sunday will a few degrees cooler, ending up near
to a few degrees below normal. Lows will remain a few to several
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Lingers through the Long Term

2) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible Each Afternoon and Evening

3) Above Normal Highs Return Monday before Below Normal Highs
Develop the Rest of the Period

Another cold front will approach out of the west Monday into early
Tuesday before tracking across the forecast area late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front will push east of the forecast area by early
Thursday. This will allow unsettled weather to linger throughout the
long term, with convection expected to develop each afternoon and
evening. The strong to severe storm potential will be in place each
day, with ample shear and instability in place ahead of the front.
The strong to severe threat may linger behind the front on Thursday
with instability returning. However, with shear expected to be lower
(20 kts or less) behind the front, confidence on the severe
potential for Thursday is low at this time. Highs will rebound to a
few degrees normal on Monday before highs drop a few degrees below
normal Tuesday into Thursday. Lows will remain a few to several
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A couple isolated general thunderstorms and
spotty light showers continue at the start of the 00z TAF period,
but should dissipate this evening. The low-level moisture will
remain plentiful Meanwhile, there is some drying of the mid-levels
tonight, but with lingering moisture likely to result in an increase
in MVFR to IFR cigs overnight. Guidance is still mixed on how
much fog may form outside the usual mountain valleys. It looks
like there will be enough mixing to favor low stratus over fog,
but still is some potential for patchy dense fog as well. Have
trended lower on cigs at all TAF sites, and hit fog harder at KAVL
(with a tempo), due to rainfall at the airport earlier providing
more moisture. Whatever fog and stratus that does develop should
be quick to clear out by late Fri morning. Much warmer/more
unstable conditions are expected Fri afternoon, with scattered
convection expected. As such, have PROB30 for TSRA at all sites,
except KCLT and KAND, for the aftn to the end of the TAF
period. Wind will become light/variable this evening and
continue thru Fri morning, then pick up slightly out of the W or
SW.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ARK