264
FXUS62 KGSP 021720
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1220 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lower rain chances through Tuesday, but patchy drizzle possible
tonight and Tue morn. Colder than NBM tonight and Tue with lingering
dry CAD.

NBM trending warmer for highs and lower for rain chances through the
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mainly dry cold air damming continues through Tuesday. Spotty
light rain possible possible across mainly North Carolina this
evening. Patchy drizzle possible any location overnight and
Tuesday morning.
2. Cold air damming finally erodes on Wednesday allowing much
warmer and well above normal temperatures to return for the rest
of the week. Trending drier through Friday before shower and
thunderstorm chances return this weekend, but confidence is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Mainly dry cold air damming continues through Tuesday.
Spotty light rain possible possible across mainly North Carolina
this evening. Patchy drizzle possible any location overnight and
Tuesday morning.

A mainly dry cold air damming event continues across the area. Lower
clouds have been more spotty as well given the drier onset. There
has been some spotty light rain across the NC mountains, and more
may return through the evening for mainly our North Carolina
locations. Generally dry for the Upstate and NE GA. That said,
patchy drizzle is possible at any location overnight and Tuesday
morning with continued influx of low level moisture and weak
isentropic lift. Despite some breaks in the clouds early, expect low
clouds to spread back across the area as well. Patchy fog is
possible, but less likely than during a wetter CAD event. Lows
tonight will be around 5 degrees above normal, with no freezing
precipitation expected.

The CAD should linger well into Tuesday, but clouds may scatter out
during the late afternoon with little to no precip to lock it in
place. Still, given the cloudy skies expected for the bulk of the
day, undercut the guidance blend for highs, but not nearly as much as
if there were precip falling. The highs are only slightly below
normal outside of the mountains and a few degrees above normal
across the mountains.


Key message 2: Cold air damming finally erodes on Wednesday allowing
much warmer and well above normal temperatures to return for the
rest of the week. Trending drier through Friday before shower and
thunderstorm chances return this weekend, but confidence is low.

In-situ cold air damming lingers through Wednesday morning before
finally eroding Wednesday afternoon. Upper ridging will build across
the Southeast while the southwestern periphery of a surface high
centered over the western Atlantic remains extended over the region
through the weekend. This will allow low-level southwest flow to
develop, leading to an influx of moisture from the gulf through the
period. Thus, much warmer and well above normal temperatures can be
expected mid to late week. The NBM is trending warmer for highs each
afternoon, allowing for higher probabilities of temperatures
reaching the 80 degree mark east of the mountains Thursday into the
weekend. The NBM now shows a 20 to 35 percent chance of highs
exceeding 79 degrees for most locations east of the mountains on
Thursday, increasing to 50 to 80 percent Friday into the weekend.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will return as well, mainly this
weekend, as the latest NBM is trending drier for Thursday and
Friday. However, the NBM is also trending lower regarding PoPs this
weekend, so confidence on diurnal convection over the weekend
remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cold air damming has developed across the
area, but it has been mainly a dry-onset CAD. With less precip
falling into the wedge layer, restrictions have not been nearly as
bad as some guidance had been forecasting. Expect the MVFR at KCLT
to go low VFR this afternoon, with low VFR at worst elsewhere. Low
end NE gusts will continue through the afternoon as well, lighter
SSE wind at KAVL. Do expect MVFR cigs to return during the evening
as low level moisture and weak isentropic lift spread back across
the area. Since only spotty light rain or drizzle at most is
expected overnight, have trended away from the NAM scenario of MVFR
vsby and IFR cigs. Have gone with VFR vsby and MVFR cigs for the
terminals. That said, if there is more in the way of precip
overnight, then the more pessimistic NAM could be more accurate.
Lighter NE winds, SSE at KAVL, expected overnight and into the day
Tuesday. Even with the drier CAD, did not go with any VFR cigs
expect for late afternoon at KCLT since their TAF is the 30 hour
variety. That could be a little optimistic, but plausible given the
dry wedge.

Outlook: VFR is expected to return on Wednesday, while another cold
front may bring showers and associated restrictions for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/RWH