131
FXUS62 KGSP 050150
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
950 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly quiet and very warm conditions continue on Saturday. A strong
cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday,
before dry and chilly conditions return midweek. A weak cold front
may bring scattered showers back to the area by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 945 PM EDT Friday: Drier conditions ave returned across the
forecast area but a few spotty upslope showers cannot be ruled out
later this evening into tonight across the SW NC mountains and
extreme NE GA. The thick cirrus shield has pushed east of the
forecast area allowing clearer skies to return. Starting to see some
altocu develop across the SW NC mountains, extreme NE GA, and the
western SC Upstate this evening. No major changes were needed as the
forecast remains on track.

Otherwise, guidance depicts another round of nocturnal low stratus
outside of the mountains, but the inversion doesn`t seem as potent
as last night so the stratus layer won`t be as thick or as
widespread in coverage. This may help scatter the stratus deck
faster compared to today. Overnight lows will run 15-20+ degrees
above normal thanks to continued WAA and very elevated dewpoints.
Some patches of fog will be possible underneath the deck of low
stratus as well, especially in locations near bodies of water.

Despite the anticyclone over the Southeast, it will gradually break
down as the longwave trough over the Four Corners region begins to
propagate eastward. Heights will slowly fall as a result during the
daytime period Saturday, but with more insolation reaching the
surface due to the expected quicker scattering of morning stratus,
max temperatures should be similar to today and flirt with daily
record highs again on Saturday. Peak heating southwesterly upslope
showers will be possible once again across the southwest mountains
of North Carolina.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Friday: Northern and southern stream systems show
some phasing as they move east on Sunday and into the area Monday.
This pushes a cold front into the area late in the day and across
the area Sunday night. A wave forming along the the front to our
southwest slows the front`s departure as it moves along the front
and across the area. Therefore, expect categorical PoP to develop
Sunday night and continue into Monday morning then tapering off
during the afternoon. PW values increase to above 200 percent of
normal with strong forcing and upper divergence. This brings QPF of
1 to 2 inches across the area with some isolated 3 inch amounts.
Given that this is spread out over 36 hours, significant flooding
seems unlikely, but some low end or nuisance flooding is possible.
The atmosphere will become unstable, but the guidance, even the NAM,
shows CAPE values under 1000 J/kg. Still, with the strong shear, any
instability and forcing could lead to isolated severe storms. Lows
around 20 degrees above normal Saturday night drop to 10 to 15
degrees above normal Sunday night. Highs around 15 degrees above
normal Sunday drop to near normal across the mountains and around 5
degrees above normal elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Friday: The upper trough and cold front push east
of the area Monday night bringing precip to an end. Cooler and dry
high pressure moves in Tuesday and remains in place through
Wednesday. Lows drop to 10 to 15 degrees below normal by Tuesday
night, bringing a frost or even freeze concern to the areas where
the growing season has started. Highs also fall to 10 to 15 degrees
below normal for Tuesday, then bounce back up a few degrees outside
of the mountains and up to 10 degrees higher across the mountains
for Wednesday. The next short wave moves into the eastern CONUS
Thursday closing off into an upper low over the Great Lakes with an
associated deep trough developing. This trough moves into the area
Friday. Moisture increases Thursday ahead of the associated cold
front which then crosses the area Friday. Have slowed precip onset
on Thursday with best PoP, still in the chance range, on Friday as
there is uncertainty on timing even with overall pattern agreement.
Lows and highs steadily increase to around 5 degrees above normal by
the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry conditions will continue through the 00Z
TAF period. VFR will linger through the overnight hours before MVFR
cigs develop shortly after daybreak Saturday. However, KAVL is most
likely to remain VFR through the period. Cigs will quickly lift back
to VFR levels by late morning/early afternoon. Wind speeds will
remain S/SSW through the 00Z TAF period, with gusts returning by
Saturday afternoon. Another cu field will develop thanks to ample
daytime heating Saturday afternoon/early evening.

Outlook: Mostly dry conditions linger through Saturday night before
shower and thunderstorm chances, and associated restrictions, return
Sunday into Monday. Drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1999     33 1891     61 1893     22 1936
                1978
   KCLT      87 1999     43 1911     63 1986     29 1936
                            1899        1945
                                        1934
   KGSP      88 1963     44 1936     62 1999     25 1975
                1934



RECORDS FOR 04-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1909     30 1891     60 2023     20 1944
                                        1910
   KCLT      88 1942     38 1891     62 1910     26 1891
   KGSP      90 1934     43 1899     60 2023     25 1904
                                        1888



RECORDS FOR 04-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1967     36 1950     64 2023     22 1898
   KCLT      90 2010     43 1931     67 2023     28 1891
                1929
   KGSP      88 2010     47 1950     65 2023     26 1904
                            1945

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/CAC
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...AR
CLIMATE...GSP