995
FXUS62 KGSP 071839
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry and cooler conditions from tonight through midweek.
Another cold front approaches Thursday and Thursday night bringing
more showers continuing into Friday. Dry weather returns for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 216 PM Monday: A slowly evolving synoptic pattern continues to
creep along this afternoon with a positive tilt trough extending from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a
cold front was draped across east Tennessee near the North Carolina
state line. Ahead of the front, a moisture rich warm sector is
entrenched across much of the area as a plume of deep moisture
emanating from the Gulf translates across the region. A lead band of
showers and embedded thunderstorms has largely pushed east of the
area with the exception of far eastern Greenwood County. Additional
showers have blossomed upstream across eastern Alabama into northern
Georgia. These showers will spread back into the area late this
afternoon and into early this evening. Additional rainfall totals
will be on the light side and generally less than 0.25". Non-zero
surface-based instability has built back in and may allow for
pockets of higher rainfall rates and perhaps a few isolated rumbles
of thunder, but not additional flooding or severe weather threats
are expected.

Heading into tonight, the frontal boundary will finally push across
the area with cold and dry advection in its wake. This will bring an
end to any lingering showers with notably cooler morning lows in the
low 30s mountains to mid 40s east. Tomorrow will be a nice, but much
cooler day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low
50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 216 PM EDT Monday: By Tuesday evening, should be mostly clear
everywhere as high pressure settles into the area.  Winds will
die down as the core of postfrontal CAA translates east of the GSP
forecast area, and conditions will allow for excellent radiative
cooling Tuesday night...supporting lows in the 30s across the low
terrain Wednesday morning...enough to hoist a Freeze Watch across
the North Carolina Piedmont and Foothills.

On Wednesday, temperatures should climb into the 60s as the surface
high slides east and winds turn out of the NE.  Humidity may
drop to near-critical levels as deep mixing develops during the
afternoon...but with moist antecedent conditions, fire weather
isn`t expected to be a major issue.  Skies will remain clear much
of the day and into the overnight...but won`t get quite as cold
Wednesday night / Thursday morning, as the air mass will have
begun to modify by this point, and slightly better wind fields
will prevent the better radiative cooling needed for lows below
the low-40s or, at worst, upper 30s...while temperatures slowly
creep back toward normal on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday: No major changes to the extended forecast.
A potent one-two-punch of upper energy will arrive on Thursday,
as a z500 trough amplifies over the Ozarks and then digs into
the Southeast by Friday...followed by another in short order on
Friday night.  The first wave may bring a narrow band of moisture
to the NC-TN border, enough for some rain, but the wider rain
chances aren`t forecast til Friday, when moisture stirred up by
the second wave encounters enough forcing for weak cyclogenesis
over the Cumberland Plateau and a strengthening cold front west
of our area.  Token thunder chances have been included on Friday,
when ensembles depict appreciable sbCAPE developing across the
entire forecast area ahead of the approaching front.

The thinking thereafter remains that behind the front, temperatures
will drop significantly...with lows back in the low 40s or even
upper 30s over the weekend...and inching back toward normal Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions will gradually improve through the
TAF period at all terminals with a return to VFR by this evening, if
not sooner in some locations. The back edge of a solid band of
showers and embedded thunderstorms is pushing east of the area with
the last remaining impacts at KCLT expected to be done by the start
of the period. Additional scattered showers may lift back into the
area later this afternoon and into the evening, and these have been
handled with at TEMPO group area wide. IFR to MVFR ceilings will
also improve with an eventual return to VFR. Southwest winds will
shift to out of the northwest behind a cold front this evening with
a few gusts possible both this afternoon ahead of the front and
behind the front overnight. Any gusts, outside of KAVL, will subside
overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions return and persist thru mid-week. Another
storm system may bring another round of showers and restrictions
late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for NCZ035>037-056-057-069-502-504-506.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TW