421
FXUS62 KGSP 222332
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
632 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will spread over the area this weekend with a gradual
warming trend into early next week. A cold front will bring some
showers to the region on Tuesday and a second system may bring wet
conditions to the area for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) A Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory are in effect through
7 AM Saturday for parts of the NC Mountains.

2) Dry and cool weather expected Saturday.

As of 630 PM EST Friday: A strong area of low pressure continues to
churn across the NE CONUS, bringing NW flow snow and gusty winds
across the mountains, the next wave moving in this evening. Gusts
have dropped off outside of the mountains but will occur from time
to time during the evening. Stratocu will spill out of the mountains
and across the area this evenign as well. The area of low pressure
bobbles toward the east overnight, shifting the location of higher
snow accumulation toward the far northern counties. Guidance from
the HREF and CAMs has about another 0.5-1.5 inch possible through
Saturday morning. For this, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect through 7 AM Saturday. The other concern are the winds. This
strong low packs a tight 850mb pressure gradient, creating gusty
winds at the higher elevations. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph expected
outside the mountains with gusts up to 50mph at the higher
elevations likely through Saturday morning. For this, a Wind
Advisory is in effect from now through 7 AM Saturday. Once the low
lifts toward the NE and out of the area, a broad and calmer pattern
emerges for Saturday. Dry conditions prevail and winds decrease.
Temperatures rebound back into the low 60s on Saturday. Overnight
temps across most of the CWA hover a few degrees above freezing.
Higher elevations can expect below freezing temps tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Friday: Mid level ridging and surface high
pressure will control our weather from Saturday night through
Monday. A warming trend will occur through the period with highs and
lows increasing each day. Highs on Monday could be as much as 10
degrees above normal. Conditions will remain dry through this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM EST Friday: A mid level trof and associated surface low
will move through the Great Lakes states Monday night and Tuesday.
This system will push a cold front through the area with a weakening
band of showers. The highest chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday
will be in the North Carolina mountains with a decreasing chance and
amounts east and south of the mountains.

In the wake of the frontal passage, temperatures will return to near
normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will settle
across the area for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Another system
will bring some showers across the region on Thanksgiving Day.
Colder conditions, likely below normal, will follow this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR stratocu will spill out of the mountains
and across the area this evening then diminish overnight. KAVL will
see low VFR cigs becoming MVFR late this evening and continuing
through daybreak. A flurry can`t be ruled out. The stratocu scatters
out and dissipates through the day Saturday. Wind gusts have dropped
off outside of the mountains but brief gusts are possible through
the evening. N to NW wind becomes W to NW overnight. Lighter NW wind
expected through the day Saturday. KAVL will see NNW gusty wind
through the period.

Outlook: VFR through Monday. A weak cold front crossing the area
Tuesday and may bring scattered rain showers and associated
restrictions. Dry high pressure returns for Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-
     048>052.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...CP/RWH
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...RWH