Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
798 FXUS62 KGSP 021102 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 602 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low pressure system is expected to bring a chance of light rain to parts of the area tonight as it crosses the Southeast. After that passes, high pressure will bring dry conditions and a warming trend for the rest of the week. A succession of weak cold fronts may bring isolated rain showers to the mountains next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM EDT Sunday: An upper low swings southward and crosses over the southeast later today and into tonight. Guidance is not too impressed with this system as moisture return is nonexistent ahead of the low. A few light showers along the TN/NC border should taper off this morning. As the low pushes into the area during the daytime, guidance increases DPVA in the eastern part of the CWA. Though the forcing and upper shear of 40-50kts is decent, the lack of moisture results in a lower QPF response. Basically, there is a slight chance (20-35%) of showers with PoP increasing (45-55%) at the far eastern fringe in the NC Piedmont late tonight. Currently, rainfall amounts range from 0.01-0.30" for Sunday night, though these could change depending on where the better forcing sets up. For the overnight hours, strong radiational cooling with calm winds could drop temps to if not a tick below forecasted in a few areas. It will be cold and patchy frost is possible east of the mountains. Temperatures with the increased cloud cover throughout the day stays well above freezing east of the mountains for tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1240 AM Sunday: The trof axis associated with a potent upper low should be to our east by daybreak Monday, by which time precip should have ended in the western Carolinas, and that feature should make steady eastward progress away from the fcst area thru the day. A quick transition to a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft will take place into Tuesday, supporting dry high pressure that allows temps to return close to normal. Low temps should be just warm enough to avoid any frost potential Monday night and Tuesday night. Afternoon RH looks just high enough to avoid any fire danger. Looks like more classic autumn weather. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1245 AM Sunday: The latest guidance shows the quasi-zonal pattern aloft persisting through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The model trend continues with regard to the nrn stream short wave not amplifying nearly as much, to the point where the trailing cold front is a total non-factor this far south. Instead, we get a continuation of the normal to above normal temps thru Friday. By Friday night, the pattern amplifies a bit to our west as a broad short wave approaches. The model blend tends to downplay the chances of precip moving into our area Friday night mostly over concerns about moisture return from the Gulf. The operational GFS appears to be alone in its solution of Gulf moisture influx, so that wetter-looking solution is not favored yet. The passage of the wave and associated front appears to do little for our overall sensible weather as there is barely a change in temps with the new air mass. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period across most of the sites. Mid to high clouds stream across the area through the day as an area of low pressure moves in. Winds remain calm across all sites through the morning hours before lightly picking up. Sites east of the mountains should have light N/NE winds. Slight chance for rain moves in tonight at KCLT, so a PROB30 should suffice from 02z-08z. Showers should be light but MVFR cigs/vsby are possible for a brief time with associated showers. No other restrictions are anticipated. Outlook: Restrictions possible to start the week. Dry and VFR conditions should return through the middle part of the week. Mountain valley fog/low stratus possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...CP