982
FXUS62 KGSP 112349
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
749 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift north along the East Coast through
early next week. This system may bring rain to the North Carolina
Piedmont and eastern Upstate tonight through Sunday as it passes
by to our east. The low will then drift offshore by midweek,
as dry high pressure builds in from the west brings above normal
temperatures to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 734 PM EDT Saturday: No major changes to the forecast tonight.
Widespread cirrus and some altocu remain in place across the
region, while a surface low centered off the SC/GA coast continues
to deepen.  Associated bands of rain slowly propagating inland are
now knocking on our eastern door, but as of yet haven`t produced
any precipitation over even our southeasternmost zones.  And,
ACARS sounding data would suggest that the air mass into which
these rain bands are pushing is pretty dry...which probably won`t
stop rain from continuing to push into our area, but will certainly
slow it down and limit its veracity.

Otherwise...the cyclone`s high level cloud shield will remain
in place through tonight while stratocu gradually fills in acrs
the Piedmont.  The inherited pop trend for tonight changes little
with light measurable possibilities making it as far wwd as I-77
by daybreak.  Under the thick cloud shield, Sunday morning minimums
will be above climo with the mountains generally around the normal
with another late night valley probability.  The tight northeasterly
sfc pressure gradient continues for Sunday with another day of
gusty wind on tap.  The consensus is for deeper moisture to make
additional wwd progress toward the Carolina foothills and have
increased chances for light rain as far west as the western Upstate
and NC fthls.  Areas of east of I-77 could struggle to reach 70
for maximums with middle 70s expected for SW 1/2 of the cwfa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday: There is still some uncertainty on exactly
out this ongoing coastal low will evolve early next week. The
associated upper low will merge with another compact low invof the
northern Mid-Atlantic. This interaction may result in the sfc low
wobbling westward near the Tidewater area, or even cause a new
low center to form southwest of the parent low near Wilmington,
NC. The ECMWF has been showing the latter solution the last few
runs, and the 12z Canadian now also shows this. Even if this
ends up verifying, it will likely be far enough away to have
minimal impact on our sensible weather for Monday, perhaps just
keeping more cloudiness and breezy conditions around. The latest
consensus still has less than 15% PoPs by 12z Monday, with mostly
sunny to sunny skies and lighter N winds. From there, conditions
get even quieter, as the low begins to drift east off the coast
Tuesday. Dry and warm high pressure builds in from the west,
allowing for above-normal temps to return to the entire forecast
area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across all but
the highest elevations Tuesday. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday: Very quiet weather expected thru the medium
range, as a large upper ridge axis persists roughly along the
Mississippi River Valley, placing the forecast area in a dry NWLY
flow regime. We will be on the edge of a warm air mass centered to
our west, and above normal temps look to continue thru at least
Wednesday with highs possibly in the lower 80s across most of
the Piedmont. A deep trough will dive into the Northeast, which
may drive a dry back door cold front thru the area Wednesday
evening. Temps should then cool down a couple of categories,
closer to normal for the rest of the week, but still slightly
above normal. The mid-CONUS ridge may start to break down and
shift east by next weekend, but a return of any mentionable PoPs
looks unlikely thru at least Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: NNE winds to persist through the period,
with occasional low-end gusts possible well into tonight across
the region.  Generally VFR, with sky cover dominated by thick
cirrus at or above FL200...but especially with the sun now setting,
scattered stratocu will develop.  For the eastern terminals, mainly
KCLT, some overnight showers are even possible as rain bands push
into the area from the east...which has for now been handled with
a PROB30.  Restrictions are possible at KAVL again, although the
current thinking is that thicker cirrus will limit fog/stratus
development...and so only MVFR is currently advertised.  As rain
band(s) continue westward, PROB30s for -RA are also advertised
for KGSP and KGMU during the daylight hours.  Restrictions are
possible along I-77 late Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by
more possible rainfall...but confidence is low enough that for now,
no mention will be made.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to return regionwide on Monday
and persist thru at least the middle of next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CSH/MPR
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MPR