Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
203 FXUS62 KGSP 101757 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 157 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A more typical summertime pattern resumes today and into the work week as daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms return. Temperatures remain at or below normal, but gradually warm through the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 PM: High pressure remains centered off the New England coast in similar position to the past couple of days. Inverted sfc trough axis now oriented along the I-95 corridor of GA/SC, with associated bands of showers tracking slowly NW`ward across the Midlands. Over our CWA, the low clouds over the area thru the morning have largely scattered, with higher midlevel deck spreading in downstream of the precip. Subsidence inversion has weakened slightly compared to yesterday at this time, and it remains plausible for the showers to reach the Piedmont later this afternoon, warranting chance PoPs. Low-level flow will turn a bit more SE`ly with the trough axis tonight, promoting warming that will help overcome any remaining inversion, while saturated layer deepens. A small amount of MUCAPE or even SBCAPE looks to linger over much of the area tonight, so chance PoPs continue nocturnally in the Piedmont/foothills. Widespread low clouds will develop overnight and given the deep saturation, they will be slow to lift in the morning and don`t stand a great chance of mixing out. The aforementioned WAA does lead to somewhat better CAPE developing with diurnal warming despite the cloud cover, and PoPs rise to likely range for most of the CWA Monday. CAD may technically dissipate, although given its persistence over the last several days and with winds aloft still not being particularly strong, it may hang on one more day. The cloud cover and precip should impact temps and keep maxes near 80 across most of the Piedmont. Localized areas of impressive rain rates may result given high PWAT values, but with low level flow being largely S to SE and SW flow in midlevels, MBE vectors may be long enough to limit the ability of cells to train, but can`t rule out an isolated flash flood threat. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday: As we move into the short term, upper trough dominating the Plains will begin to gradually weaken and push east along the northern tier and Great Lakes as the western Atlantic anticyclone begins to retrograde somewhat over the Southeast. Weakness over the Gulf, however, will push inland Monday night and bring ample moisture into the area for the short term as it rotates up and around the western periphery of the ridge, with surface flow also advecting moisture in from the Atlantic. Reduced surface thermodynamics with weak lapse rates aloft due to increased moisture/cloud cover but with the vort lobes rotating around expect that should have increased pop coverage Tuesday into Wednesday, though severe chances are limited. Flow aloft will be weak as the upper trough passes to the north so with the ample moisture (PWs at or above 2" across most of the Piedmont), cannot rule out isolated flash flood risk. Gradual warming trend through the short term but still high temperatures below seasonal normals with lows close to average. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: Little change going into the extended as the anticyclone over the western Atlantic sort of merges with a stronger upper ridge over the Desert SW. The pattern is really kind of nebulous overall with flow aloft remaining very broad. Deep moisture remains across the area which allows pops to remain higher than in a typical summertime pattern, but as with the short-term, severe chances remain low with biggest hazard being isolated flash flooding. Temperatures rise by mid-week to near seasonal normals but as we approach the weekend, some indications point to the possibility of another back-door cold front to knock them back down a few degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Multiple cloud decks are seen at issuance time around the area, with MVFR stratocu having redeveloped in many places after having dissipated after daybreak. That layer is expected to dissipate or mix to VFR within the first 1-2 hours of the TAF period. VFR should persist thru most of the evening, except -SHRA advecting in from the SE could produce brief MVFR over KCLT and the SC sites, handled there with TEMPO or PROB30. Stratus looks to develop overnight on moist southerly flow aloft and will produce widespread IFR and some -DZ, with a few embedded SHRA handled with VCSH. While stratus or stratocu are likely to persist most of Monday, cigs should lift to MVFR by late morning except at KAND. Chance of precip remains low enough to mention only as VCSH to the end of the period, except at KCLT where PROB30 is included after 18z. At KCLT winds look to veer to ESE late this aftn and remain there thru the evening. Winds mainly NE and occasionally gusty this aftn otherwise, aside from KAVL which remains light SE`ly. KCLT should turn ESE again Mon aftn. Outlook: Daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions return across the area each day this week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDP NEAR TERM...Wimberley SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM...TDP AVIATION...Wimberley