235
FNUS73 KGRR 181554
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Range 7 burn...MDMVA
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1154 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions are expected with light easterly winds becoming
more southeasterly later this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity
values are expected to be mainly in the 40s but if we are able to
mix a little more this afternoon they could drop into the mid to
upper 30s.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........72 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................73 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5900 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....130 /fair/ at ignition. Max...340 /good/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
Sky (%).........34     22     40     38     26     13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............72     78     83     82     74     67
RH..............73     56     44     46     62     78
20 ft wind......E 3    E 6    E 6    E 6    E 5    E 5
20 ft wind gust.8      10     9      9      7      8
Mix hgt (ft)....2800   4800   5800   5300   500    400
Mixing wind.....E 5    SE 6   SE 6   SE 6   E 6    E 8
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
Smoke disprsl...130    270    330    300    30     30

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Patchy fog
                    overnight.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph until midnight becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....30 (poor).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Max 85.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph through
                    mid afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    day.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 5 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....20 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    260 (fair) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hansen
Requested by...Michele Richards
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422671.0/GRR
.DELDT 09/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL richardsm2@michigan.gov