311
FNUS73 KGRR 251333
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Acorn Pile RX...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
833 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on November 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
An area of low pressure will track northeast through Lower MI
today.  This feature will stay just south of the burn site so
it will feature an east wind as it passes by.  As the low pressure
system tracks away from the burn site the winds will become
westerly later this afternoon.  Accompanying the passage of this
system will be scattered light rain showers through the day.  High
humidity levels will be present through the day given the cloud
cover and precipitation associated with the storm system.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely.
Temperature.........40 at ignition...Max 44.
RH..................95 percent at ignition...Min 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 5 to 8 mph becoming light, then
                    becoming west around 5 mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 8 to 17 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 6 mph late in the day, then shifting to
                    the west 6 to 8 mph late in the day.
Smoke dispersal.....160 /fair/ at ignition. Max...170 /fair/.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........95     97     97     96     98     98
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     42     43     44     44     42
RH..............95     93     93     89     93     100
20 ft wind......E 8    E 8    E 6    E 3    W 3    W 6
20 ft wind gust.10     16     12     9      8      13
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1200   1300   900    800    800
Mixing wind.....E 17   E 13   E 10   E 6    W 6    W 12
Haines index....2      2      3      3      3      3
Smoke disprsl...160    160    130    50     40     90

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the evening, then chance of rain showers and
                    snow showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 27.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 26 mph
                    after midnight.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 12 to 21 mph increasing to 24 to 25 mph
                    after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....550 (good) early in the evening decreasing to
                    90 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers until midday.
Temperature.........Max 33.
RH..................Min 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 23 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....340 (good) early in the morning increasing to
                    990 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Sekelsky
Requested by...Josh Nichols
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427305.0/GRR
.DELDT 11/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joshua.nichols@usda.gov