895
FXUS63 KGRR 111442
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1042 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler into Wednesday, then Warmer

- Rain Friday Night into Saturday

- Windy Saturday then Colder for Sunday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The forecast looks on track. Cold front has pushed southward to
the I-94 region and will continue its southward trek through the
rest of Lower Michigan into this afternoon. The main forecast
concerns to be addressed for the afternoon update will center
around increasing winds and thunderstorm chances for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

- Cooler into Wednesday, then Warmer

The cold front is currently moving through northern Wisconsin and
the UP and will continue to move southeast through western
Michigan this morning. There is a lack of moisture with the front,
therefore no precipitation is expected. Northwest winds will
increase behind the front with gusts to 30 mph possible especially
north of I-96 and along the lakeshore. High temperatures today
will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s north of I-96 and mid 40s to
low 50s south of I-96. Wednesday will be slightly warmer with
highs in the mid 40s to low 50s with the warmest temperatures
in southwest Michigan.

Warm air advection then brings warmer temperatures and higher dew
points to the area with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Thursday
and around 70 on Friday.

- Rain Friday Night into Saturday

Warmer temperatures along with moisture streaming in from the Gulf
will help fuel our next system. Current timing holds off any rain
until late Friday night with the 500mb low and vorticity maximum
swinging through the region. There is an axis of a few hundred
J/kg of MUCAPE so can`t rule out a few thunderstorms. With the
negatively tilted trough, low CAPE high shear environment we`ll
have to keep an eye on the risk for severe storms as we get
closer. With the additional rounds of positive vorticity
advection rotating through in the trough, some lingering rain
showers are possible.

- Windy Saturday then Colder for Sunday

Strong southerly flow with the previously mentioned system is
highlighting the potential for impactful winds across Michigan
Saturday. ECMWF Ensemble probabilities are high (90 to 100
percent) for gusts of 34 knots (39 mph) or greater during the day.
There is also a signal for 50 knots (57 mph) or greater with
probabilities mainly in the 10-30 percent range.

The trough axis moves through Sunday with northwest flow building
back in Sunday night. Additional precipitation chances (20 to 30
percent) of rain transitioning to snow exist with highs only in
the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 708 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A front will move through this morning with winds shifting to the
north with some stronger gusts around 25 to 30 knots. These gusts
will linger through the morning and early afternoon. Conditions
are expected to be VFR through tonight.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH