761
FXUS63 KGRR 101757
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
157 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain This Afternoon and Evening

- Mostly Dry Conditions through Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Rain This Afternoon and Evening

Rain along a shortwave trough currently over Wisconsin will move
east into the afternoon and evening. Dry air may delay the start
initially, but within the southwest flow ahead of the front
moisture advection should help saturate the lower levels. Warm air
advection, positive vorticity advection, and lift with the front
will then develop scattered showers during the afternoon and
evening hours. Southwest winds ahead of the front will be breezy
with gusts around 20 to 30 mph with the highest gusts along the
lakeshore.

Chances for rain have decreased overnight into Saturday as the
closed low is now tracking further east. We`ll have to watch for
some shallow showers during the day Saturday, however chances are
not high enough at this time to include in the forecast. Total
rainfall amounts of a trace to around a quarter of an inch are
expected with the highest amounts north of I-96.

- Mostly Dry Conditions through Next Week

Increasing pressure heights into Sunday will result in dry
conditions and sunny skies with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
The overall synoptic pattern then shifts with a trough to the
north and ridge to the south with us sandwiched in between. Some
solutions highlight a push of southwest flow and warm air
advection bringing chances for rain on Monday while others keep us
completely dry, at this time sticking with the NBM PoPs with only
a 20 percent chance along the lakeshore. Another instance occurs
Wednesday and again chances are minimal at this time. Depending on
if the trough to the north can deepen over the area will determine
if our rain chances increases. Otherwise expect a dry stretch
through most of the week with highs mainly in the 60s and lows
mainly in the 40s with a potential for 30s for the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A cold front is situated upstream of the area this afternoon
stretching north/south across Wisconsin. A band of very light rain
showers well ahead of the front is currently moving through the
TAF sites. These showers should not affect visibility (VFR
weather will continue this afternoon). The front will move through
the area this evening with additional scattered showers. At this
point we feel the ceilings will remain VFR this evening as well. A
period of clearing will occur tonight in the 03z to 09z time
frame behind the front. After 09z lower ceilings will try to
spread in once again from the north. We have a more optimistic
forecast in place at this point, but we may need to add lower
clouds (MVFR) in the 12z to 18z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Southeast winds are approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions
and are expected to reach those thresholds as we head later into
the morning with winds shifting to the southwest with gusts to 30
knots and waves building to 4 to 8 feet. Showers are expected to
move in this afternoon ahead of a cold front, once the cold front
moves through this evening winds shift to the northwest with Small
Craft Advisory conditions lingering into Saturday morning. Winds
and waves then look to remain below Advisory conditions into next
week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...RAH