664
FXUS63 KGRR 151143
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
643 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess

Quiet weather pattern continues as a southern stream low tracks
south of Lower Michigan today. The northern stream remains
separate with a clipper low passing north of Lower Michigan on
Monday. We will have to watch model and radar trends tonight to
see if any light precip will reach the northern forecast area
Monday morning as suggested by some model guidance. Milder
temperatures continue as the polar jet remains to the north until
later this week.

The next chance for precipitation is late Tuesday into Wednesday
in an area of warm advection and isentropic ascent with enough
moisture to bring rain or mixed precip with the highest chances
across the northern forecast area. Thermal profiles of model
forecast soundings show potential for freezing rain across the
northern forecast area, where there have been a few freezing rain
episodes during previous periods of milder temperatures this
winter.

A second wave of low pressure late in the week could also bring
rain/mixed precipitation which should change to snow by late
Friday as cold air filters in on the back side of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Patchy ground fog early this morning with visbys 3 to 5 miles then
VFR conditions into Sunday night. Could be areas of MVFR and
patchy VFR with shallow ground fog again late tonight.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno