014
FXUS63 KGRR 221916
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool for the holiday weekend

- Slow warming trend next week, chance of rain mid week

&&

.DISCUSSION..316 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

- Dry and cool for the holiday weekend

Radar shows the last of the rain moving southeastward across the
eastern cwa; we should be dry tonight.

The surface low will move over Quebec tonight, but the upper low
will remain in some form for the next few days. A large area of
high pressure will move in behind the surface low and provide dry,
but cool conditions throughout the holiday weekend.

Latest visible loop shows an expansive cloud shield surrounding
the upper low and we`re likely to see a good deal of cloud over
the eastern cwa tonight. Clearing is evident over the western half
of the cwa currently and that clearing will make some inroads
eastward tonight, but likely won`t make it all the way through.
The clouds, though, will likely prevent frost from developing over
the northeast cwa tonight, but that might not be the case Friday
night.

We expect more clearing Friday and Friday night which, under high
pressure, will help temperatures fall into the mid 30s across the
northeast cwa. Given very low dewpoints, we likely won`t see
enough frost develop to merit a headline, but we`ll keep an eye on
it.

Highs tomorrow will only reach the mid 50s. Temperature swill
finally reach the lower 60s Saturday,mid 60s Sunday, and upper 60s
Monday. Dewpoints in the mid 40s will make for comfortable
conditions.

- Slow warming trend next week, chance of rain mid week

The next chance of rain really doesn`t arrive until Tuesday
afternoon as a southern Plains low moves in this direction; high
pressure over Lake Superior will keep system south of the Great
Lakes. Rising heights ahead of the low will keep the slow warming
trend going. Highs in the upper 60s are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday and lower to mid 70s Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Lingering MVFR ceilings to move off at JXN and LAN over the next
few hours. Some lingering showers should move off as well...with
VFR conditions setting up after the showers come to an end.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Wind and waves will begin to diminish this evening and fall below
advisory criteria overnight as low pressure over Ontario drifts
east. The current advisory and corresponding beach hazards
statement runs through 06z which looks good at this point.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Maczko
MARINE...04