487
FXUS63 KGRR 230346
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1046 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly Dry through Monday

- Multiple Opportunities for Precipitation This Week

- Warming Trend into Mid Week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

No real update needed to the forecast for tonight. The only thing
that was tweaked was cloud cover based on current satellite
trends. Some low clouds over the SW portion of the area will move
out within the next few hours. Then, a more thicker canopy of
mainly high clouds to our NW will overspread toward daybreak
tomorrow morning. The clouds moving in later will hold
temperatures from dropping too much.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

- Mainly Dry through Monday

A persistent area of high pressure will be located over the
southeast United States through Monday as an area of low pressure
moves across Canada. This will keep Lower Michigan in a continued
southwest flow. The southwest flow will provide a feed of warmer
air with 850mb temperatures slowly rising from -2C overnight to
+5C at midday on Monday. Highs today will end up around 30, we
will be in the 30s on Sunday and push into the lower 40s on
Monday. We do not see any chances for precipitation as the front
off to our north should be enough of a distance away to keep
precipitation at bay. We feel precipitation that occurs Sunday
night should stay in Northern Lower Michigan based on current
model data.

- Multiple Opportunities for Precipitation This Week

A Hudson Bay / Eastern Canada upper low will be in place the
remainder of the forecast period from Tuesday through Saturday.
Upper shortwaves will be rotating through the Great Lakes region
on the southern periphery of this upper low. The flow in our area
aloft will be from the west-northwest much of the time bringing
these waves through periodically. At this time, the waves look to
be centered on Monday night, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday into
Saturday. So, after a fairly benign start to the 7 day forecast it
gets a bit more active as we move through the work week. All of
these systems will be clippers and therefore will be somewhat
moisture starved with no deep flow of southerly air ahead of them.
We are not expecting heavy precipitation this week at all. Chances
for both rain and snow are expected with temperatures warming up
to more marginal p-type levels.

- Warming Trend into Mid Week

The warming trend that was mentioned above continues into mid
week. Normal highs are in the lower to middle 30s and we will see
some 40s into our forecast area from Monday through Wednesday. So,
with the increasing sun angle and now some warming temperatures
secondary streets that have held on to some snowpack will finally
get clear. We will slowly lose a little bit of snowpack into mid
week. Trends for later in the week are for a bit cooler air as
troughing takes shape overhead. We should be more consistently in
the 30s to end the week, although there is some discrepancy there
with the GFS much colder than the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions rule across the area late this evening. There are
some lower clouds based around 3500-4500 ft agl, but they are
moving SE and should be out of the area by 06z. We will have high
clouds become thicker overnight, but bases should stay up around
20-25k ft agl. We will see clouds lower through the day on Sunday,
getting to around 10k ft agl by 14-18z. Winds will generally
remain under 12 knots from the SW and eventually S Sunday
afternoon. Maybe a few gusts around 15 to 18 knots, but nothing
too impactful.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...NJJ