734
FXUS63 KGRR 031130
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
730 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and Windy Today

- Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight through Wednesday Night

- Trending Drier Thursday through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

- Hot and Windy Today

Within the southwest flow we`ll see rising temperatures and dew
points through the day. Looking at 925mb temperatures around 24C
and southwest winds gusting to around 35 mph this afternoon,
temperatures are expected to be in the 80s with some spots
potentially hitting 90 (20 to 30 percent chance). Elevated smoke
will also continue overhead, but low chances of it making it to
the surface and reducing visibilities.

- Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight through Wednesday Night

Overall the timing trends of the front have rain and thunderstorms
moving in later with the front moving through a little quicker.
This has resulted in lower precipitation amounts tonight through
Wednesday night and lowering the risk for any flooding. The best
chances for and inch or more of rain highlighted by the NBM and
HREF is in Mason, Lake, and Oceana counties (40 to 60 percent
chance).

As we head into tonight, we`ll see precipitable water values
increase above 1.5 inches approaching 2 inches. HREF shows mean
MUCAPE values around a couple hundred J/kg that diminishes
overnight with 40 to 50 knots of shear. There is a potential for
some stronger storms initially, but overall some stronger winds
alfot could be mixed down with the rain and thunderstorms moving
in. Rain and thunderstorms will shift east into Wednesday morning
with the front reaching the Grand Rapids area around sunrise and
the Lansing/Jackson area during the late morning early afternoon.
Instability could recover enough for some stronger storms mainly
south of a Battle Creek to Lansing line. Again some stronger gusts
would be the main concern.

- Trending Drier Thursday through Saturday

The overall pattern looks to be drier for Thursday through
Saturday, which is supported by ensembles. Friday still has some
chances (20 to 40 percent), these chances could trend down if more
models and ensemble members match up more with the current ECMWF
run that keeps high pressure over the area into Saturday.

Temperatures during this time will be in the 70s with overnight
lows in the upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Southwest winds increase through the morning with gusts of 25 to
30 knots expected by the afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms hold
off mostly through 6Z although MKG could be clipped by scattered
storms after 00Z to the north. Scattered rain and embedded
thunderstorms slowly move east overnight into Wednesday morning
but most TAF sites likely remain dry through 12Z. Low level wind
shear around 40 knots returns this evening and continues into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Gusty southwest winds around 30 knots are expected today with
building waves creating hazardous conditions for small craft and
swimmers. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore
waters from St. Joseph to Manistee and a Beach Hazard Statement is
in effect for Beaches along Lake Michigan for Ottawa, Muskegon,
Oceana, and Mason counties. A Moderate Swim Risk is expected today
for Allegan and Van Buren County beaches. Winds and waves
gradually subside behind the front tonight into Wednesday morning
with northerly winds expected through the rest of the week.

Rain and thunderstorms are also expected tonight into Wednesday
with mostly dry conditions expected for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

An Elevated Wildfire Danger exists today with relative humidity
values in the 30s and 40s with temperatures in the 80s and
southwest gusts around 35 mph this afternoon. While we aren`t
expected to reach Red Flag conditions, fires can still easily
spread. Make sure to check local burning restrictions and use
caution if camping, grilling or using any tools/vehicles that
could cause a spark.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for MIZ037-043-
     050-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH