460
FXUS63 KGRR 110705
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
305 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Dry through Tuesday

- Uncertainty with Rain Chances Mid to Late Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Mostly Dry through Tuesday

The front has moved through and dry air is wrapping in on the
backside of the low. There is some lower stratus that is moving in
from the north. This is expected to expand over the area before
scattering out during the afternoon. Sunday will be sunnier, but
clouds return for Monday as we see remnants of a front move
through. Some showers may make it to western portions of the area,
however lift weakens as the axis of higher moisture shifts east.
Dry conditions continue into Tuesday with highs over this period
in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s

- Uncertainty with Rain Chances Mid to Late Week

Mid week into late next week remains uncertain due to the varying
synoptic pattern between the timing of troughs and ridges. We are
sandwiched between the two Tuesday night into Wednesday, but we
could see some showers from the backdoor cold front that moves
through with the low passing to our northeast. Wednesday night
into Thursday morning looks like another cold night with the
current forecast highlighting temperatures in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Within the upper level ridge there is some uncertainty with
how quickly it breaks down. Some ensemble members keep us dry
through Friday while others bring in light rain chances and
continue them through the weekend. Overall it is too far out to
lean in any one direction with the forecast and we`ll have to
monitor model trends as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected overnight with light northerly winds.
An area of MVFR ceilings will slowly expand southward overnight
into Saturday afternoon impacting TAF sites for a couple hours
over any one location before scattering out. AZO, BTL, and JXN
have a lower chance of seeing these MVFR ceilings, therefore left
them out of the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Winds have shifted to the northeast with waves gradually falling
into Saturday morning. Some high waves toward 4 feet are still
possible toward the open waters, therefore will hold onto the
Small Craft Advisory a little longer. Waves will continue to fall
to around 1 foot by Saturday night. East to southeast winds are
then expected Sunday into next week before shifting back to the
north Tuesday. Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory conditions into next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH