556
FXUS63 KGRR 231657
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1157 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of snow today

- Wet and warmer through mid week, then cooler

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

An upper shortwave will traverse the area this afternoon.
Isentropic lift can be seen on the 290k surface in model data and
this is resulting in pockets of light to even moderate snow. Have
added some very low pops (20-30 pct) to the forecast as we are
not expecting much in the way of areal coverage or accumulation.
There is some dry air in the low levels that will act to keep most
of the snow to flurries or a brief period of light snow. HRRR
soundings and BUFKIT overviews from the 3km NAM show limited
moisture below 5000 feet. So, considerable clouds with some light
snow early with skies trying to clear from the west late in the
day. Highs will be in the 30s with a southerly wind of 5-15
knots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

- Slight chance of snow today

Skies are currently partly cloudy with high clouds moving across
the region. Farther upstream thicker clouds were noted over MN/WI
associated with a short wave that is progd to move across the
cwa this afternoon. There isn`t much moisture with it, but there
are some radar echos with it currently over eastern MN. We have
low chance PoPs in the grids for light snow this afternoon.

- Wet and warmer through mid week, then cooler

Although Monday looks largely dry, another shortwave in the
pipeline will move across the state Monday night generating some
light rain. Nothing heavy is expected given the Pacific origin of
the shortwave. We`ll also see a warming trend Monday due to south
winds increasing ahead of the trough.

The wettest day of the week will be Wednesday. Models are
converging on a solution whereby low pressure moves across the
upper Midwest and Lower MI. Given the warmer air in place through
mid week, this looks to be generally a rain event. However, the
Canadian model is a little colder than the ECMWF and GFS and
paints a broad brush of snow across the central cwa. Even the GFS
has some snow on the north side over the northeast cwa. This could
be a sneaky event if a tad more cold air gets into the system.
Ensemble members on all of the models are not too bullish on snow,
but each one does show some snow so it bears watching.

Temperatures will fall back into the 30s late in the week as
colder flows in behind the departing mid week upper trough. Mixed
rain/snow is possible Friday night into Saturday as another short
wave moves across the state.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Warm air advection today will lead to VFR cloud cover for the TAF
sites. Otherwise, much less in the way of wind is expected with
values mostly staying under 15 knots.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...MJS