178
FXUS63 KGRR 170025
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
725 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow to Rain/Drizzle Tuesday

- Late Week Rain Decreasing Trend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Snow to Rain/Drizzle Tuesday

Lake effect snow flurries persist across the northern forecast
border area tonight but no accums/impacts expected.

Cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Monday with sfc low
tracking east and pushing an area of warm advection/isentropic
upglide into the southwest forecast area late Monday night. Model
soundings at AZO show the column saturating after 06Z Tuesday
with thermal profiles favorable for snow as the 0C wet bulb height
reaches the surface. There could be a quick burst of snow, accums
an inch or less, along and south of I-96 Tuesday morning before
sfc temps rise above freezing. Timing should be better defined as
the precip gets into the domain of the high resolution models.

Temperatures rise above freezing by noon and no travel impacts are
expected for the afternoon. The upper low shears out and is
absorbed in broad cyclonic flow across the NE CONUS. There is a
temporary loss of saturation of the DGZ during the afternoon that
could result in precip turning to drizzle. Temperatures fall below
freezing again Tuesday night and some icy patches are possible on
roads into Wednesday morning.

- Late Week Rain Decreasing Trend

An upper low ejecting from the SW CONUS will bring a chance of
rain by the end of the week, from Thursday night through Friday
night. Model trends with the 12Z guidance are for less phasing of
northern and southern troughing across the Great Lakes and a
corresponding decrease in the chances of heavy rain of 2 inches
or more.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR weather will continue the next 24 hours, or through 00z Monday
evening. We will see a mix of clear skies and occasional scattered
to broken clouds off of Lake Michigan as the air flowing over it
is still cold enough for the production of lake stratocumulus. The
limiting factor will be low relative humidity values. Cloud bases
of these clouds will continue to be around 4,000 feet.

On Monday, during the afternoon, we will see a steady increase in
mid and high clouds. Bases will be at or above 10,000 feet.

Winds from the west-northwest are expected both tonight and on
Monday in the 5-15 knot range.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Duke