003
FXUS63 KGRR 021735
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1235 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy Fog this Morning

- Showers Early Monday and Again On Wednesday

- Rain and Wind Possible Friday Into Next Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Patchy Fog this Morning

Light to calm winds, clear skies, and small dew point depressions
have resulted in some patchy fog early this morning. Visibilities
have fluctuated in spots below a mile to around 5 miles. Will
continue to monitor trends toward sunrise, if fog becomes more
widespread and dense an advisory may be needed. Any reduced
visibilities should improve within a few hours of sunrise.

- Showers Early Monday and Again On Wednesday

Scattered showers are expected ahead of a shortwave trough that
will swing through late tonight/early Monday morning. With the low
level jet moving in, southwest winds will increase this evening
and overnight ahead of the front gusting around 25 to 30 mph and
as high as 40 mph along the lakeshore. Winds then shift to the
west behind the front Monday morning with winds continuing to
gust in the 25 to 30 mph range. Best chances for rain (40 to 60
percent) will be along and north of a Holland to Alma line.

Once the rain clears early Monday, dry conditions are expected
through the reminder of the day into Tuesday. Another shortwave
trough moves through Wednesday bringing with it additional chances
(20 to 40 percent) for rain across the area.

Rainfall amounts will be light with both rounds. The NBM
probabilities of greater than a tenth of an inch on Monday is 30
percent around Grand Haven to Mount Pleasant increasing to around
50 percent for areas from Ludington to Reed City and north.
Meanwhile chances drop quickly south of this area. Wednesday has a
better potential for rain accumulations across the forecast area
with the NBM probabilities of a tenth of an inch or more of rain
in the 20 to 30 percent range.

- Rain and Wind Possible Friday Into Next Weekend

As we head toward the end of the week into next weekend upper
level troughing looks to move in and potentially stay for several
days. There is some overall variability within the GEFS, ECMWF,
and NBM ensembles with the placement of the low which is causing a
larger range in potential temperatures, rainfall amounts, and
wind speeds. However more members than not show periods of rain
Friday through Sunday. Hence the higher probabilities (50 to 60
percent) during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Scattered cu with bases around 3k ft are moving north this
afternoon. Otherwise most sites are clear. Overnight, rain showers
move into the region from MKG/GRR/LAN north in the 06z-12z time
frame. Visibilities should hold at or above 6sm with this light
activity. Ceilings look to be around 4k ft with these showers. So,
overall little impact is expected. Additionally, we may be looking
at a short window for LLWS mainly for our southern TAFs early
Monday morning in the 06z-10z time frame. This occurs as winds off
the ground increase ahead of the approaching front that will bring
the showers to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Have expanded the Gale Warning south to Grand Haven for tonight.
The probabilities for gales have increase above 60 percent and
stronger winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface.
Southwest winds will build this evening with gales to 40 knots
north of Grand Haven. After midnight there could be a brief period
of isolated gales south of Grand Haven. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will continue into Monday with west to northwest winds
to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. High pressure moves in Monday
night into Tuesday allowing winds and waves to subside. This will
be short lives as another round of high waves and gusty winds
moves in for Tuesday night into Wednesday and again Thursday night
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for LMZ844>846.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for
     LMZ847>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Hoving
MARINE...RAH