962
FXUS63 KGRR 181130
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
730 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather with moderating temps through the weekend

- Limited chances for rain confined to Tuesday Night and Wednesday

- Temperatures well above normal expected Saturday through Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

- Fair weather with moderating temps through the weekend

High pressure will continue to dominate the wx today through
Saturday. IR sat trends in conjunction with 00Z HREF cloud progs
suggest skies will remain clear today and southerly winds will
help to boost high temps into the low to mid 60s after a cool
start to the day.

A consensus of short term guidance time height rh progs and 00Z
HREF guidance all suggest that skies will remain mostly clear
tonight and Saturday. High temps tomorrow will be several degrees
milder than today given the persistent southerly flow waa regime
and ample sun.

- Limited chances for rain confined to Tuesday Night and Wednesday

There is a high confidence in dry weather persisting from today and
Saturday through Sunday and into early next week. One change in the
models tonight is that last night`s model runs indicated chances for
rain on Tuesday. That has now been pushed back into Tuesday night.
The only chances for rain now come Tuesday night and Wednesday,
which are the only forecast periods in the 7 day forecast with rain.
The Tuesday rain chances were driven by a stronger shortwave that
was in last night`s models. Tonight`s runs show a weaker more open
wave moving through now. Moisture is meager in tonight`s model runs
primarily confined to Tuesday night and Wednesday. A stronger trough
during this time frame moves through in northwest flow out of the
Northern Plains and Canada. To put our rain chances in perspective
though, 7 day QPF from WPC is a meager trace to 0.10 inches. Suffice
it to say our mainly dry weather will stay that way.

- Temperatures well above normal expected Saturday through Tuesday

Temperatures this time of year can be a roller coaster and that is
indeed the case in the 7 day forecast. The ride up will be steady
and sustained, warming a bit each day between today and Monday.
Highs in the 60s today will warm into the 70s area wide on Sunday
and likely peak on Monday well into the 70s. In fact, the GFS MOS
guidance for GRR on Monday has a high of 81 degrees. The normal high
on Monday at GRR is 58, so 23 degrees above normal! The record high
at GRR Monday is 85. We are certainly in a warm and dry pattern into
Tuesday. Lower 70s are likely on Tuesday with more in the way of
cloud cover. A cold frontal passage Wednesday morning will bring
back a dose of reality and a fall that all roller coasters have. By
Thursday high temperatures will be back in the 50s. Monday evening
850mb temperatures peak at +16C overhead. By Wednesday evening we
plunge to -2C in the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 730 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

VFR weather will continue the next 24 hours with clear skies and
no restrictions to visibility. South winds of 5 to 15 knots can be
expected today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

A small craft advisory continues in effect through early Saturday
morning as south winds of 15 to 25 kts will cause wave heights to
build to 3 to 5 feet near to north of Holland.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ846>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Duke/Laurens
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Laurens