711
FXUS63 KGRR 121727
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1227 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few sprinkles this morning, then dry through Friday

- Saturday rain

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

- A few sprinkles this morning, then dry through Friday

Water vapor imagery shows a short wave moving across Lower MI
early this morning in conjunction with a surface low near Lake
Superior. The low is pushing a weak trough/cold front through the
region but there isn`t much cooler air behind it. 00z soundings
show quite a bit of dry air below 750 mb which explains why radar
shows a paucity of echos over the cwa. Once the short wave passes
through late this afternoon, we`ll tap into the drier air over
Wisconsin currently see on IR imagery.

Today will be roughly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday: highs in
the mid 40s, but still 5 or so degrees below normal.

A high amplitude ridge will move east from the Plains across the
Great Lakes during the next couple of days resulting in warmer
temperatures and sunshine.

- Saturday rain

Saturday afternoon and evening look wet. Another cold front is
progd to move through the cwa by 00z Sunday. Most of the ECMWF
ensemble members show a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of
rain during this time. So it doesn`t look like a big soaker, but
chance of measurable rainfall increase to 50-60 percent Saturday
evening.

Ahead of the front, highs across the southern half of the cwa will
be in the 60s Saturday but only in the 40s Sunday behind the
front. It`s also possible that some wet snow make mix in with the
rain over the northern cwa Saturday evening, but no accumulations
are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

It`s VFR with few clouds near Lake Michigan, and scattered to
broken clouds with bases between 2,500 and 3,500 to the east of
there. Fair to good confidence in clouds continuing to scatter out
and going clear this evening (occurring later in Central
Michigan, north of LAN). Gusty winds ongoing should relax in
areas away from Lake Michigan with nightfall (23 Z), setting up 25
to 30 knots of LLWS between 2,000 feet and ground for a few hours.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...CAS