578
FXUS63 KGRR 192301
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
601 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain Thursday evening

- Chance of ran Monday night and Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Chance of rain Thursday evening

High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and low
level winds will become southeasterly. A weak short wave in the
upper flow is responsible for the mid/high clouds streaming across
the Great Lakes today. As dewpoints slowly rise after midnight, a
strengthening inversion will trap that moisture resulting in
overcast conditions into Thursday. The next chance of rain arrives
Thursday night as a short wave moving across the UP pushes a cold
front southeast across the cwa. Moisture along the frontal
boundary isn`t all that impressive but a 35-30 PoP for light rain seems
reasonable. The frontal boundary will be across central Indiana
Friday which will result in some sunshine as some ridging builds
in from the upper MS Valley.

- Chance of ran Monday night through Tuesday night

A southern stream system will track toward the southern Great
Lakes Monday night. Moisture streaming north from the Gulf
followed by a trailing short wave should provide a higher (50+
percent) chance of rain Monday night through Tuesday night. The
operational ECMWF and ensemble members are 12 hrs or so slower
than the GFS, so Monday night may end up being dry but Tuesday
looks wet. Temperatures will be too warm for snow over the cwa
given highs in the mid to upper 40s. The warmer air will carry
over into Wednesday ...a busy travel day before cooler air flows
back into the cwa late in the day behind the departing low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Presently AZO, BTL, and JXN are seeing MVFR cigs while BKN cirrus
is present at the other terminals. Expect low stratus to expand
north this evening into late tonight, with ceilings eventually
falling below 2kft at all termianls. There are some signals in
forecast RH profiles for a period of IFR stratus and/or drizzle
after 11-12z, with the best chance at AZO and BTL. Other terminals
have chances at 30% or less so have kept restrictions MVFR for
now. Ceilings will slowly improve through the afternoon hours,
possibly reaching VFR near the end of the TAF window. Light and
variable winds are expected overnight with an overall trend of
veering to southerly by Thursday morning, increasing to 5-10
knots.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas