781
FXUS63 KGRR 022301
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
601 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance (<20%) for freezing drizzle tonight

- Additional lake enhanced snow Wednesday /heavy snow not expected/

- Below normal temperatures through early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Small chance (<20%) for freezing drizzle tonight

Surface ridge will migrate east of the region this evening, as
lingering snow flurries near Lake Michigan diminish. Southwest
winds will slowly increase tonight on backside of ridge in advance
of the next weather system to impact west Michigan late tonight
and Wednesday.

Retreating cold air, southwest winds, and shallow low level
moisture with increasing mixing ratios with height /per HRRR
soundings/ suggests a potential for freezing drizzle later tonight
northwest of AZO-GRR-MTP line -- perhaps extending through
daybreak Wednesday. Overall low likelihood, but worth watching
closely, given high impact on travel.

- Additional lake enhanced snow Wednesday /heavy snow not expected/

500 mb short wave energy races ESE across southern Ontario toward
Quebec on Wednesday, as an associated surface cold front swings
across the region. Southwest winds increase further ahead of this
front, but synoptic moisture/lift not overly impressive. Models
suggest modest lake enhanced snow showers over mainly western
areas, with an inch or two anticipated. Winds become northwest by
late in the day behind front, and this will allow colder air to
spill into the region Wednesday Night and Thursday -- along with
lake effect snow showers in the usual locales. Very minor
accumulations expected.

- Below normal temperatures through early next week

Weather over the Great Lakes region late this week through early
next week will be dominated by persistent upper level troughing
over North America. Several short waves will rotate around upper
trough southeastward into the Great Lakes from Canada, bringing
occasional chances for snow showers while helping to maintain the
coldest weather of the season thus far. Though heavy snow appears
unlikely at this time, expect short waves to provide at least some
snow and/or lake effect snow chances roughly Friday, Saturday,
and again toward Sunday/Monday timeframe.

Highs from Thursday through early next week will generally be in
the 20s to lower 30s /roughly 10-15F below normal for this time of
year/. With snow cover, some of the normally cold locations in
West Michigan *may* fall to below zero Friday morning, and again
toward early next week.

Suffice to say, weather over the next week will have a decidedly
January feel to it, though the first official day of winter is
nearly three weeks away.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Most TAF sites are seeing MVFR ceilings this evening, with LAN
likely to see intermittent periods of VFR for the next few hours
based on satellite trends. Low chance (30%) of periods of IFR cigs
at times, highlighted with FEW/SCT groups at the affected
terminals and times. Otherwise, sub 2kft MVFR should persist
through the TAF period. Less than 10% chance of very light FZDZ
at AZO and GRR tonight after 05z, have not included in the TAF
given very low confidence. Also weak signals for patchy freezing
fog overnight but with winds around 10 knots, confidence in
development at any terminal is too low for inclusion, so
monitoring trends will be needed. After 14z, an area of light snow
will slowly slide southeast bringing MVFR visbys for several hours
to the terminals. The snow should clear GRR and MKG by 00z
Thursday. Gusts to 20 knots are possible at MKG starting late this
evening, and during the late morning/the afternoon at all other
terminals.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Thomas