233
FXUS63 KGRR 110816
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow quickly winding down

- Chance of light snow today, mainly north

- Chance of light rain tonight and the weekend


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Lake effect snow quickly winding down

Local radar shows the predominant snow band that brought
accumulating snow to the lake shore has weakened and moved inland,
pushing into the second column of counties. Radar shows shrinking
areas of 30+ dbz as the band moves east.

The snow has tapered off to flurries along the lake shore and we
canceled the winter storm warning and winter weather advisory.

- Chance of light snow today, mainly north

Regional radar already shows precipitation across Wisconsin. Low
pressure over southern Canada has a north/south oriented warm
front associated with it. The Wisconsin precipitation is oriented
along the warm front and that will move across the cwa today.H8
temps rise from -10c to -2c today which will create cloudy
conditions and a chance of light snow...perhaps changing to light
rain along the lake shore. Most of the cwa will see a 20 percent
chance of light precipitation. However north of M-46, chances
increase to 30 to 40 percent. Precipitation will end this evening.

- Chance of light rain tonight and the weekend

We have a warm up expected later this week. Upper ridging will
move over the Great Lakes and another warm front will send high
temperatures close to 60 across the southern cwa Saturday and
Sunday. Isentropic lift along the frontal boundary is moderate
across the isobars but strongest to the east of the cwa.  This
may be an event in which the highest PoPs shift east of the cwa,
the NBM hasn`t picked up on that yet. The most likely time frame
for light rain is Saturday night.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lake effect snow showers with IFR visibility continue near the
Lake Michigan shore, though it has continued to weaken. Showers
will slowly move inland but will weaken as it does. That will
put GRR, AZO, BTL, and LAN at risk of temporary MVFR to IFR snow
showers. A less favorable atmosphere for lake effect convective
showers will arrive late tonight toward daybreak. Latest SREF and
CAMS show best period of MVFR from 06Z to 09Z.

A switch to a warming pattern with gusty southwest winds will But the strongest dynamics are over northern
Lower. occur during the day Tue. There will be a period of
thickening midlevel clouds with light snow around mid-day, mostly
VFR but a chance for temporary MVFR. There will be a chance for
LLWS as the warm front moves in from 22Z Tuesday to 04Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

No changes to the marine headlines. Wave heights will decrease to
3 to 6 feet this morning before strong southwest gales develop
this afternoon and push wave heights up to 10 ft or so. The gale
warning is in effect until 10 pm tonight and a small craft
advisory will likely be needed after that.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...04