283
FXUS63 KGRR 041918
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
218 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry tonight, Rain Thursday night & Friday

- Colder with rain/snow showers Saturday-Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

- Mostly dry tonight, Rain Thursday night & Friday

Latest visible loop shows quite a bit of mid clouds have developed
over the cwa in response to ongoing isentropic lift associated
with warm advection on the west side of the lake. The warm
advection is ahead of low pressure over the eastern Dakotas that
will move east across northern Lower Wednesday morning. Models
show these clouds persisting overnight.

The low will drag a cold a cold front through around 12z and
there`s a 15-20 percent chance of a shower or two north of M-46
late tonight/early Wednesday. Breezy conditions will develop
Wednesday in the wake of the front, but the cooler air won`t
arrive until Thursday when temperatures will top out around 50.

A deeper low will follow Thursday night and Friday. There`s more
moisture with this system and stronger dynamics with the trailing
short wave and we should see more rain (90-100 percent chance)
along the cold front Thursday night. QPF in the quarter to third
inch range will be common across the cwa.

- Colder with rain/snow showers Saturday-Monday

The next low in the wave train is expected Saturday night. Models
have trended a little farther south with the low and that`s
supported by the position of the upper wave across the Missouri
Valley. Additionally, the large upper low over Hudson Bay will
move south late in the weekend and early next week and send
additional short waves through the flow. Given the colder air in
place Saturday night (h8 temps in the -4 to -6c range), the
precipitation will likely be snow with some rain mixed in and some
accumulations may be possible. However it`s still too early to
pin down those details, but will certainly be watched.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 30s and lows Sunday
night and Monday night around 20.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

SCT to BKN mid/high clouds will continue to fill in through the
day with bases lowering to 7-10kft tonight. Chance of showers
mainly at MKG as a disturbance crosses Central Michigan tonight.
Expecting a period of LLWS at all terminals as winds climb to
around 40 knots at 2kft AGL this evening, and continue until winds
pick up behind a cold front early Wednesday morning. Expect winds
to change from westerly today to southerly tonight, veering back
to westerly behind the front. Winds climb by daybreak to 15 knots
gusting to 25 knots. This front also looks to bring a period of
MVFR ceilings, with the best chance at LAN and JXN after 12z.
Given short range guidance trends are for greater MVFR coverage,
may need to add restrictions to additional sites if trends hold
into the 00z TAF package.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas