964
FXUS63 KGRB 222000
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery with light snow and flurries through early this
  evening. Snow accumulations less than an inch, except over
  northern Vilas County where around an inch of fluffy snow could
  accumulate.

- Next chance for snow is late Monday night through Tuesday
  afternoon. 50-80% chance of 2+ inches north of Highway 29.

- An additional opportunity for snow Wednesday night into
  Thursday. 30-40% chance for an 1+ inch south of Highway 29.

- Staying colder through Monday with highs in the 20s. Warmest
  day this week will be Friday (>75% chance of highs 40+ degrees),
  but turning colder again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Embedded shortwaves in cyclonic flow will lead to continued light
snow and flurries through early this evening. High pressure and
drier air advecting in from the west will eventually end most of
this activity with some clearing skies. The main exception will be
across north-central Wisconsin where a continued feed of Lake
Superior will provide lake effect light snow and flurries through
early Monday morning. The high will continue building in across
the western Great Lakes on Monday, which should cause the winds to
ease as the day goes on.

A clipper system then takes aim for the area, bringing snow to the
region starting late Monday night with the best chance (70-90%)
for snow during the day on Tuesday, and winding down Tuesday
evening. Current 24 hour NBM probabilities for snow are sitting at
50 to 80% for 2 or more inches north of Highway 29 with
probabilities quickly falling off south of Highway 10 to 10 to
20%. The probability of hitting 4 or more inches is holding steady
at 40 to 50% north of highway 8 across north-central Wisconsin and
an interesting uptick of 50-70% across northern Door County. If
current trends hold, a headline across the northern portion of the
CWA would be in order in subsequent forecasts.

There is a possibility for another system (20-40% chance) to
impact the region in the Wednesday night to Thursday timeframe.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how this
system plays out as there is still a chance this system stays to
the south and avoids the area entirely. NBM probabilities with
this system are generally 30 to 40% for an inch or more of snow
during this period south of Highway 29, with 10 to 30% north of
Highway 29. Precipitation chances are then low for the rest of the
week and into next weekend (20% or less).

Temperature-wise we will be on the cooler side of average for
most of the week. Highs are expected to be in the 20s Monday,
along with chilly lows in the single digits to teens tonight and
Monday night. A few spots across north-central may slip below
zero tonight if skies clear out. Highs will be average to a bit
below average for Tuesday-Thursday, with a warm-up expected on
Friday behind the clipper system as highs soar into the lower to
middle 40s. Temperatures then crash back into the 20s for highs
late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1055 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

MVFR CIGs will vary between 015 and 025 into early this evening,
though lingering VFR cigs will occur over eastern WI through mid
morning on Monday. Light snow and flurries (MVFR/VFR) are
expected through the afternoon with VSBY reduction at times to IFR.
The most persistent lower VSBYs will be over north-central
Wisconsin, to the north of RHI, due to lake effect snow. Tonight,
MVFR cigs and a few flurries will linger across far north-
central (RHI) and near Lake Michigan (MTW). Skies will partially
clear out elsewhere.

Northwest winds gust 15-25 kts at the terminals through the
period, strongest this afternoon, then easing throughout the day
on Monday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski