184
FXUS63 KGRB 051745
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still some surface smoke today, but trends show it thinning out.

- A few stray showers are possible in northern Wisconsin today.

- A few showers and thunderstorms could pop up Friday and
  Saturday, with a greater opportunity for widespread rain and
  thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

While tough to see on satellite overnight, current air quality
observations and smoke models indicate there is a still near-
surface smoke present, particularly across the eastern part of the
forecast area. The current Air Quality Advisory remains in effect
until noon. Models and upstream obs indicate smoke will not be
entirely eliminated today, but should continue to thin and become
less noticeable.

Otherwise, most places will be dry today with highs in the 75-80
degree range, slightly cooler near lake Michigan. CAMs are still
showing a few pop- up showers in far northern WI this afternoon,
aided by some weak jet streak energy aloft and daytime heating.
Expect any showers to be exceptionally isolated and brief. With a
little instability cannot rule out a rogue lightning strike
either.

A somewhat muddled setup Friday into Saturday with a progressive
flow bringing in weak shortwave energy from time to time, but
timing continues to vary. Included mainly chance PoPs (25-55%) on
Friday, and some slight chance PoPs (15-30%) on Saturday. A few
embedded thunderstorms could accompany any showers, but severe
storms are not expected.

A more robust upper low and surface front approaches and moves
through the state on Sunday/Monday, which brings a greater
opportunity for rain and thunderstorms. It is too early to
determine the potential for strong or severe storms, but given the
time of year and current forecast front timing of Sunday
afternoon, certainly cannot rule out some stronger cells.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period.
The exception will be for some smoke/fog later tonight
into Friday morning (generally from 07z-13z) across
eastern Wisconsin, and then MVFR visibilities in
showers and a few storms late Friday morning and afternoon.
Winds will be fairly light through Friday morning, so
lower than normal confidence in the wind direction on
Friday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Eckberg