773
FXUS63 KGRB 070325
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1025 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday and
  Monday. Severe potential remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This afternoon`s radar imagery showed isolated showers across north-
central and far northeast WI, where clouds had cleared early this
morning. A few rumbles of thunder were observed earlier this
afternoon, which coincided with a couple hundred J/kg of SBCAPE.
Elsewhere, dry conditions prevailed under partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Anticipate the isolated showers to continue to pop up and
dissipate throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into early
this evening. SBCAPE has already decreased, so the likelihood of
additional rumbles of thunder is very low.

A few isolated showers or sprinkles are possible overnight as
lingering low to mid-level moisture sticks around, but a lack in
forcing may prevent any additional shower activity. Additional
isolated showers are possible on Saturday in central and north-
central WI, where some low-level WAA will reside during the
afternoon. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder within any
shower with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE around as well. The
remainder of the region should remain dry under mostly sunny skies.

A cold front is still on track to march across the forecast area on
Sunday, bringing widespread rain chances and thunderstorms. The
precipitation appears to be located only along the front, so the
rain/storm chances will be brief at any one location. The front is
progged to move across the forecast area from west to east between
mid-morning Sunday and late Sunday afternoon. Additional
precipitation may develop behind the front as well into the evening
before dissipating. The severe thunderstorm potential continues to
appear low due to the timing of the frontal passage and an
unfavorable location of the various severe parameters.

A mid-level closed low will dive south across the western Great
Lakes region Sunday night into Monday. This will provide another
opportunity for more showers and thunderstorms on Monday and
possibly into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

BKN mid-level clouds will likely persist through the night, and
given the expected cloud cover, confidence is too low to include
fog at any particular location overnight. Aside from the
lingering mid-level clouds, there is potential for SCT cumulus
clouds to form Saturday afternoon. Some models generate a few
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in C/NC WI during
the afternoon/early evening, and plan to add PROB30 groups for
showers at AUW/CWA for a few hours. Looking at the latest smoke
models, don`t see any threat of significant surface-based smoke
through this TAF period.

Light E-NE winds will increase a little and become SE-S by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch