548
FXUS63 KGRB 030851
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
351 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will continue to result in poor air quality and
  reduced visibilities into early next week. An Air Quality
  Advisory is currently in effect until noon, but may be extended.

- Patchy fog may restrict visibilities for motorists at times
  early this morning and again overnight into Monday morning.

- It remains dry and warm today with low humidity. Moisture and
  temps will climb through the week, with highs approaching 90 by
  weeks end. Rain chances are not expected to return until the
  middle to later part of next week (15-35% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region into Monday,
bringing hazy skies, restrictions in visibilities, burning smell
at the surface at times, and poor air quality. Vertically
integrated and near-surface smoke forecasts from the HRRR, RAP and
Canadian all show the large area of smoke remaining in place
through at least Monday as it is trapped/stuck under a high
pressure system. As more of a southern flow sets up on Tuesday and
Wednesday, the smoke should start to shift north/east of the
area. An Air Quality Advisory is in effect until noon but will
likely be extended by the DNR.

Patchy ground fog is expected once again this morning and possible
overnight into Monday morning. The ground fog could be locally
dense. Any fog will mix out within a hour or two of sunrise.

With high pressure in control across the Great Lakes, look for the
dry conditions to continue into Monday. As the high slowly weakens
and drifts east of the region late Monday into Tuesday, a couple
shortwaves and low pressure systems will make a run at the region,
but the high pressure and lingering dry air will likely keep
most/all of the area protected from the shower/storm activity. If
any area were to get clipped, it would be central or north central
WI, but chances remain 15% or lower so will continue with the dry
forecast. Better chances for showers/storms arrives mid-late week
as flow turns more zonal across the northern CONUS and better
moisture (PWATs climbing above 1.5") shifts eastward. But
confidence remains low on just how fast the ridge will break down
and when the better chances for showers/storms arrive, so will
continue with 20-35% chances beginning Wednesday night, continuing
into next weekend. A cold front is forecast to eventually move
across the region late next weekend, bringing the best chance for
organized storm activity.

Near normal temps and low humidity levels will continue today into
Monday, then a slow climb in temps and humidity is expected
through the week as flow turns southerly and weak WAA occurs.
Parts of central and east central WI look to be close to the 90
degree mark by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Smoke and patchy fog will be the main aviation concerns through
Sunday evening.

Areas of smoke and daytime cumulus development can be expected
through the TAF period. The height of the clouds should be between
five and seven thousand feet. Surface-based smoke should lower
visibilities into the 3-5 mile range at times. Fog is expected to
redevelop overnight, generally between 06z-13z/Sun, with local
IFR/LIFR vsbys expected. The fog should mix out quickly Sunday
morning.

Light and variable winds are expected overnight, becoming S-SW
5 to 10 kts during the late morning/afternoon on Sunday. Onshore
SE winds will develop near Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch