231
FXUS63 KGRB 031904
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
204 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will continue to result in poor air quality and
  reduced visibilities into early next week. An Air Quality
  Advisory is currently in effect until noon Monday, but may be
  extended.

- Patchy fog may restrict visibilities for motorists at times
  overnight into Monday morning.

- It remains dry and warm with low humidity. Moisture and temps
  will climb through the week, with highs approaching or exceeding
  90 by the end of the week and into next weekend. There is a 60
  to 80 percent probability of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees
  away from the lakeshore on Saturday.

- Rain chances are not expected to return until the middle to
  later part of next week (15-35% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region through Monday
night, bringing hazy skies, restrictions in visibilities, burning
smell at the surface at times, and poor air quality. Vertically
integrated and near-surface smoke forecasts from the HRRR, RAP and
Canadian all show the large area of smoke remaining in place
through at least Monday night as it is trapped/stuck under a high
pressure system. As more of a southern flow sets up on Tuesday
and Wednesday, the smoke should start to shift north/east of the
area. An Air Quality Advisory is in effect until noon Monday and
may be extended as needed in subsequent forecasts.

Patchy ground fog is possible overnight into Monday morning. The
ground fog could be locally dense. Any fog will mix out within a
hour or two of sunrise.

With high pressure in control across the Great Lakes, look for
the dry conditions to continue into Monday. As the high slowly
weakens and drifts east of the region late Monday into Tuesday, a
couple shortwaves and low pressure systems will make a run at the
region, but the high pressure and lingering dry air will likely
keep most/all of the area protected from the shower/storm
activity. If any area were to get clipped, it would be central or
north-central Wisconsin; however, chances remain 15% or lower so
will continue with the dry forecast.

Better chances for showers/storms arrives mid-late week as flow
turns more zonal across the northern CONUS and better moisture
(PWATs climbing above 1.5") shifts eastward. But confidence
remains low on just how fast the ridge will break down and when
the better chances for showers/storms arrive, so will continue
with 20-35% chances beginning Wednesday night, continuing into
next weekend. A cold front is forecast to eventually move across
the region late next weekend, bringing the best chance for
organized storm activity.

Near normal temps and low humidity levels will continue into
Monday, with a slow climb in temps and humidity expected through
the week as flow turns southerly and weak WAA occurs. Parts of
central, northeast, and east-central Wisconsin look to be close
to the 90 degree Friday and Saturday as the probability of
reaching or exceeding 90 degrees is 50 to 70 percent west of the
Fox Valley on Friday, with a 60 to 80 percent probability on
Saturday away from the lakeshore. By Saturday there is even a 40
to 60 percent chance of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees across
north-central Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Surface-based smoke is forecast to lower visibilities into the 3-
5 SM range much of the TAF period as wildfire smoke continues to
spread across the region. Daytime cumulus clouds are forecast to
continue this afternoon, with bases mainly between five and seven
thousand feet, then dissipate by this evening.

Additional ground fog possible is late tonight into early Monday
morning, generally between 06z-13z, with local VLIFR/LIFR vsbys
expected. Surface winds will be S-SW under 10 kts this afternoon,
becoming light and variable this evening. Onshore SE winds will
develop near Lake Michigan this afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski