901
FXUS63 KGRB 231722
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1122 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dusting of snow could make roads and sidewalks slippery this
morning south of highway 29. Light snow mixed with rain could
make for hazardous travel north of highway 29 tonight.

- Light wintry precipitation is possible Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Main impacts will come from any potential icing
creating slippery roads, bridges, and sidewalk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Monday

The left exit region of a 90kt 300mb jet moving across Southern
Wisconsin should help produce some light snow and flurries south
of highway 29 this morning. South winds and some clearing should
help temperatures rise above freezing in most places this
afternoon.

An even stronger jet moving across Northern Minnesota and Upper Michigan
should produce light snow or perhaps even rain across the north tonight.
A steady south wind will produce slowly rising temperatures overnight.

Monday will be the mildest day of the month as west winds bring in mild
air from the Plains states. Highs will be in the 40s in most places,
except for the upper 30s across Door county. It might reach 50 degrees
south of highway 10 and in the far northeast corner of the state.

Long Term...Monday Night Through Saturday

Progressive upper-level flow will bring several short-waves across
the region this week into next weekend. With warming low-level
temperatures expect p-type to mainly be rain, but periods of
freezing rain/drizzle will be possible, especially during the
overnight hours. Chances for snow may return by next weekend as
temperatures trend more seasonal.

Precipitation...A short-waves progged to arrive late Monday night
into Tuesday morning will bring a period of light rain, mainly south
of highway-8. Forecast soundings do suggest that as the mid-level
moisture gets stripped out of the column rain may transition to
freezing drizzle Tuesday morning. This may lead to slippery roads,
bridges, and sidewalks as ground surfaces will likely remain below
freezing given the recent cold stretch. Total liquid accumulations
with this system is expected to remain below 0.05".

Another short-wave along with a more moist Pacific airmass will
bring more precipitation to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Thermal profiles during this period show a well pronounced warm
noise around 850mb with surface temps around or just below freezing
which is a recipe for freezing rain. Freezing rain currently looks
most likely south of highway-29, a wintry mix of rain and snow more
favorable north. Slippery roads will again be a concern Wednesday
morning.

Another system expected to come across the region later in the week
into the weekend does look cold enough to be mainly a snow producer.
NBM probs show a 15-30% chance for greater than 1" snow north of
highway-29.

Temperatures...Long range ensembles are in good across with above
normal temperatures through the mid-week with highs in the 40s at
most locations. Ensemble spread becomes larger toward the end of the
week with high temperature ranges of 10-15 degrees next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A band of light snow across northern Wisconsin will exit the area
early this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
through Monday afternoon. The only exception could be across the
far north where some MVFR CIGS are possible. Also, from 06z to
12z Monday, there is some potential for light rain and light
freezing rain. Even if air temperatures are a few degrees above
freezing, pavement temperatures are expected to around or slightly
below freezing resulting icy conditions. The chances for freezing
rain will only impact the KRHI TAF site. Winds will be on the
increase later this evening and overnight, with gusts around 25
knots at the surface are possible. Did add low level wind shear
from around 04z Monday through much of Monday morning. Gusty winds
will gradually subside Monday afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....RDM/GK
AVIATION.......Eckberg