482
FXUS63 KGRB 072351
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
651 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers linger into this evening across central and
  north-central Wisconsin.

- Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will move across the
  area on Sunday along a cold front. After the main passage of
  rain and storms, additional showers and a few storms could
  redevelop during the afternoon and linger into the evening.
  Widespread rain and storms are expected on Monday. Severe
  potential both days remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Short Term...Tonight and Sunday

Skies were partly cloudy across northeast Wisconsin and mostly
cloudy elsewhere during the afternoon. Temperatures warmed into
the 70s, except in the middle 50s to lower 60s near the bay
and Lake Michigan.

For the rest of the afternoon, a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across central and north-central WI
as a weak shortwave moves across the area. The risk of lightning
over central Wisconsin is from 20%. Any activity should end by
mid evening.

On Sunday, a cold front will move across the area, bringing a
round of showers and scattered thunderstorms. After the main band
of rain and storms moves through the area, additional showers and
storms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon. Bufkit
soundings 300-600 J/KG of CAPE to support thunder chances in the
afternoon. The risk of severe storms are low for both events.
There is a 60-90% chance of rainfall amounts over a quarter of
an inch, but only 30-60% for a half inch or greater. High
temperatures should top out in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday

Majority of the extended will be characterized by meager rain
chances and above average temperatures as thermal ridging builds
across the CONUS. Opportunities for thunder will remain minimal,
although some storms could make an appearance during the
afternoon on Monday.

Rain/storm chances... Decaying low pressure and attendant cold
front will sweep across the Great Lakes on Monday, bringing our
next chances for showers and storms. Not too impressed with rain
chances thus far, as low-level moisture has largely been worked
over by this time and cold FROPA moves through mostly dry. Will
likely hold QPF down to just a couple tenths of an inch.
Nevertheless, modest diurnal instability (~400 to 500 J/kg SB CAPE)
and upper forcing will lend themselves to thunder potential
within showers. Looking ahead, long-range guidance then grabs
onto a signal for a more prolonged period of off and on rain as a
cold front drops down across the US/Canada border and stalls out
over central Wisconsin. However, as is the nature of the forecast
this far out, frontal timing/movement will be wont to change.

Temperatures... Temperatures will read slightly above average
through the end of next week, with Monday being the coolest day as
post-frontal highs fall into the low to mid 60s for many.
Temperatures then rebound into the 70s and 80s over the course of
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A couple clusters of light showers will dissipate early this
evening as they lift toward northern WI. Quiet weather is then
expected for the rest of the night, aside from some LLWS
developing in north central WI (include RHI) late.

A cold front will bring a swath of showers and embedded
thunderstorms to the western TAF sites between 13-16z/Sun,
and ATW/GRB/MTW between 16z-20z/Sun. MVFR conditions may
accompany the storms. A second area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms may impact C/NC WI as a strong short-wave trough
arrives late in the afternoon.

Light SE-S winds will prevail overnight, followed by gusty S-SW
ahead of the cold front Sunday morning, then gusty WSW winds in
the wake of the frontal passage during the late morning and
afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg/Goodin
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch