101
FXUS63 KGRB 031114
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
514 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances expected early this morning, Tuesday
  night into early Wednesday, Thursday night into Friday, and over
  the weekend.

- Windy today with winds of 25 to 35 mph expected.

- Near to slightly above normal normal temperatures anticipated
  through the work week, then cooler next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Rain showers will end from west to east early this morning as a
cold front sweeps through the area, which will also turn winds
from southwest to a westerly direction. Skies will also clear
behind the cold front, meaning mostly sunny skies should be had
the rest of today and into the afternoon. Despite the clearing
skies, winds will stay gusty as a tight pressure gradient will
remain across northeast Wisconsin. Westerly winds are expected to
gust to 25 to 35 mph today. The gusty winds, combined with RHs of
20 to 30 percent in the sandy soil areas, will result in elevated
fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

Another moisture-starved system is expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The surface low is trending farther north, which
results in most of the precipitation falling over the Upper
Peninsula of MI and far northern WI.

Additional systems will impact the region Thursday night into
Friday, and over the weekend, and appear to have better potential
to produce widespread precipitation. The weekend system will be
much colder, with a mix of rain/snow expected.

Temperatures look to remain at or slightly above normal through
the work week, then drop below normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF
sites through this evening. Some high clouds will stream in
overnight, becoming BKN across north-central Wisconsin.

Gusty west winds of 20-30 knots are expected today in the wake of
a cold front. Some LLWS is expected early in the TAF period
before mixing brings the higher gusts to the surface. LLWS will
redevelop this evening as surface winds ease and the highest low
level winds no longer mix to the surface. High pressure building
in across the region will eventually end the LLWS as the low level
jet pushes off to the east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Southwest winds continue to be gusty across the Lake Michigan
waters, although most sites are just shy of gale force. The threat
for gales will continue through early this morning when a cold
front shifts winds to the west. Although a few gale force gusts
will be possible this afternoon, gales are not expected to be
ubiquitous as NBM probabilities of exceeding gales today are at
best 10 percent. Therefore, will continue the current headlines of
following the Gale Warning with a Small Craft Advisory for the
rest of today going into tonight with wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski