580
FXUS63 KGRB 031047
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
547 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall and runoff will likely lead to rises on area rivers,
  which may lead to minor flooding at a few locations late this
  week.

- Light rain and snow will be possible at times this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Friday

RAP and satellite/radar imagery indicate a low pressure system
located around Duluth with the attendant occluded front just
north of the Wisconsin/Michigan border over the Upper Peninsula.
Winds behind the occluded front have shifted southwest and
increased to 30 to 40 mph, which has mixed out the fog from
earlier this morning. As the low lifts northeast towards the
Quebec/Ontario border this morning light rain showers will
changeover to snow before ending across far north-central
Wisconsin as the wrap around moisture exits the region. Any
snowfall accumulations across north-central Wisconsin will be very
light and not more than a tenth or two. Windy conditions this
morning will ease slowly throughout the day as the pressure
gradient loosens and winds veer to a west-northwest direction this
afternoon. Highs today should generally be in the 40s.

Winds will become calm tonight with partial clearing expected
across much of the area. A ridge of high pressure will provide dry
conditions as temperatures cool overnight. Lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 20s across the north to the lower
30s in the Fox Valley and lakeshore.

Dry conditions are expected to continue on Friday as the high
lifts north and a low pressure system develops across the
southern Mississippi Valley. Despite the dry weather, the
aforementioned low will bring an increase in mid and high clouds
as the low lifts north Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday are
expected to range from the middle 40s across the north to around
50 across central and east-central Wisconsin away from Lake
Michigan.

Long Term...Friday Night Through Wednesday

There are a few chances for precipitation this weekend and early next
week, however, impacts should be minimal. First chance comes late
Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system tracks across
the Ohio Valley. Light rain will be possible south of HWY 8 with
most locations forecast to see 0.01 to 0.1" of rain. However, both
ensemble and deterministic models are trending further north with
this system compared to previous forecast cycles. If that trend
continues are south of HWY 29 may see slightly higher QPF amounts.
Second round of precipitation is expected to come Sunday into Monday
as a northern stream short-wave dives across the region. Forecast
thermal profiles suggest this will be mainly a light snow event with
periods of rain possible, particularly during the afternoon hours.
Most favorable time for accumulating snow will be overnight with NBM
showing a 10-20% chance for over 1" of snow north of HWY 29 Monday
morning. Arctic high pressure should then bring dry conditions to
the region through the middle of next week.

Temperatures during this period will be near to or slightly below
normal. Monday will be the coldest day with highs in the upper 20s
to middle 30s forecast across the region. Warmer temperatures are on
the horizon for the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected this morning as a low pressure
system moves away from the region. Some VFR conditions will be
possible at times across east-central Wisconsin this morning along
with some light snow showers across far north-central Wisconsin.
Strong surface winds around 30 knots will also continue this
morning across the entire area, with the highest winds across
central, east-central, and northeast Wisconsin.

Conditions will improve through the afternoon and into the early
evening as skies scatter out and winds ease. Some patchy fog is
possible across north-central Wisconsin late tonight with light
winds and mostly clear skies, mainly affecting KRHI.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/GK
AVIATION.......Kurimski