219
FXUS63 KGRB 032356
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
656 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flows will remain elevated on area rivers and streams into next
  week due to recent rainfall. Minor flooding is possible at a
  few locations.

- Chance of snow showers (30-45 percent) Sunday night into Monday
  as strong cold front arrives.

- Temperatures well below normal to start next week (highs 20s and
  30s), with gradual warming trend for rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Short Term...Tonight and Friday

Low pressure northeast of Lake Superior led to blustery conditions
this morning with a few gusts around 40 mph, but winds will steadily
weaken the rest of the day as pressure gradient decreases. Winds
will be light tonight into Friday as high pressure drifts across
Wisconsin, before shifting across the lower Great Lakes on Friday.

Even with the high overhead, low-level moisture and resulting clouds
will not completely abate, especially over central and northern
Wisconsin. Now, if there is any substantial clearing, especially
north, temps could drop toward 20 which would open door to patchy
shallow fog late tonight into early Friday, some of which could be
freezing fog. Won`t hit this up too much (no mention in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook) given very limited coverage expected.

Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds will be around Friday morning
before more clouds develop in the afternoon ahead of weaker southern
stream system that may bring some rain to the area Friday night.
A warmer day compared to the chill of today as readings reach the
upper 40s to even lower 50s.

Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday

Generally looks quiet with lower impact weather the weekend through
most of next week. Upper trough in the southwest CONUS slowly shifts
to the southern Plains by the weekend. Mid-upper level jet energy
ahead of the trough spurs on formation of an H85 low that lifts
from the southern Plains to lower Great Lakes Friday night into
Saturday. Light rain (less than 0.10 inch) may reach as far north
as Fox Valley to the lakeshore Friday night. Did adjust pops to
account for trends from recent models to shunt main area of
warm air advection/showers to the south and east while also
keeping majority of northern Wisconsin dry.

Rest of weekend looks quiet with temps slightly above normal,
then attention turns to sharp upper trough digging across the
Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. Cool temps tied to the
trough with H85 temps down to -15c across Lake Superior and Upper
Michigan/northern Wisconsin Monday into Monday night. Cold front
at the sfc drops across Sunday night and could see scattered snow
showers and some gusty winds as this moves through into Monday
morning. Timing of the snow showers and wind could lead to minor
impacts to the morning commute on Monday. Post frontal cool
northerly flow across Lake Superior may keep some light snow
showers or flurries over northern Wisconsin rest of Monday into
Tuesday morning. Once the snow ends other areas, main thing of
note will be the chilly conditions as highs on Monday could stay
in the 20s north and will only be in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

Temps will begin to rebound more toward normal Tue-Wed, then rise
back above normal for the rest of the week. NBM pops late in the
week back to lower chance, but this looks to be buoyed by Canadian
NH which shows stronger system crossing the western Great Lakes.
This is not supported by CMC ensembles at all, so chances are the
general dry weather will continue the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Look for mainly VFR or MVFR conditions through the TAF period,
with low clouds ranging from FEW to BKN, along with some high
clouds. Only exception would be where patchy fog forms across
north central WI overnight into early Friday. Any fog would bring
a period of lower visibilities and ceilings. Clouds will thicken
and lower on Friday, especially in the late morning and afternoon
as the next weather maker approaches. Any rain looks to arrive
after 00z Sat.

West winds will continue to diminish early this evening, light
winds expected the rest of the night. East to southeast winds will
remain under 10 kts on Friday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......Bersch