143
FXUS63 KGRB 310609
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
109 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance (60 to 80%) for widespread showers and storms today and
  tonight. No severe weather is expected.

- Dry weather expected for the second half of the weekend into
  early next week.

- Active weather returns the middle of next week as a series of
  low pressure systems track through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Rain/storm chances...Widespread rain/thunder expected today and
tonight, continuing into Saturday. Recent model trends are a bit
further north with the low and expected precipitation, with a
corresponding rise in precipitation chances (60-80%). Despite the
area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, probabilistic data
indicates the chance for exceeding an inch of rain today and
tonight is rather minimal. The best chances are across the far
southern CWA with a 20-40% chance of exceeding this threshold.
Therefore, excessive rainfall is not expected to be a high impact.
Convective activity should remain minimal due to weak shear (< 20
knots) and limited forcing. Overall, signs point toward a period
of light to moderate stratiform rain today and tonight.

Expect light rain to persist through Saturday morning as the cold
front continues to sag south. Dry weather should then settle in
through the early part of next week as high pressure and upper
level ridging build in across the region. A low pressure system
approaching from the west will bring a return to the active
pattern in the middle part of next week with a chance (30-50%) of
showers and thunderstorms. The forcing and instability look rather
week during this period; therefore, high impact weather is not
anticipated.

Smoke... Expect air quality readings in the moderate (yellow)
category today as an elevated smoke plume reaches the surface at
times. Per upstream obs, little to no deterioration in visibility
are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected tonight. BKN to SCT cigs based around
8kft will linger over much of the region, with light and variable
winds overnight.

Friday a surface low passing across the middle Mississippi Valley
will bring another round of rain to the region. Rain is progged to
arrive from west to east during the early afternoon. With limited
instability have left TSRA out of all TAF sites with this issuance.
Rain should be falling from a mid level cloud deck, based 7-10 kft
AGL. Cigs across central WI may lower near MVFR Friday evening. Main
ovation will likely be periods of MVFR vsbys as any heavier showers
pass over an terminals.

Light winds 5-10 kts are expected to back from the southwest to
northeast Friday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......GK