375
FXUS63 KGRB 141149
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures today and Wednesday, with a warm up late in
  the week. The warmest day occurs on Friday.

- Showers overspreading the area this afternoon and evening, and
  tapering off by Wednesday morning. Periodic rain chances also
  expected later this week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Canadian high pressure was centered over northern MN and northern
WI early this morning. Some low clouds were brushing the Lake
Michigan shoreline, while mid-level clouds increased from the
west.

North to northeast winds and increasing clouds will bring cooler
temperatures today, as highs only rise into the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Dry weather is expected for much of the day, though a
few light showers may develop over NC/C WI late in the afternoon.
More widespread shower activity arrives tonight, as forcing
increases due to mid-level frontogenesis, the RRQ of an upper jet
and a weak short-wave energy. The main area of showers should
gradually shift south overnight, and move out of the forecast area
by Wednesday morning.

Upper level ridging should bring a brief break in the rainfall
for most of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low pressure
will track from the Central to Northern Plains Thursday into
Thursday night, with a strengthening (30 to 40 knot) low-level
jet helping to push a warm front through WI. The LLJ and frontal
passage will bring a chance of showers, though a break should
occur as the front lifts north on Friday. Breezy south winds will
help boost Friday`s high temperatures into the upper 60s to middle
70s.

A cold/occluded frontal passage and short-wave energy will bring
additional showers and possibly a few storms to the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday, and additional short-wave energy will
keep a chance of showers in the forecast into Sunday. Drier
weather should return early next week. The frontal passage brings
significantly cooler air to the region by Sunday, but some
moderation occurs early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Mid-level clouds were increasing across the region and scattered
showers were already crossing the MN/WI border early this morning.
Will have showers moving into the TAF sites during the mid to
late afternoon, but sprinkles could arrive a couple hours
earlier. The showers will become steadier this evening, which
should cause ceilings and vsbys to drop to MVFR in most locations.
The rain will gradually taper off from north to south overnight
into early Wednesday.

N-NE winds around 5 to 10 knots (locally higher near the lake and
bay) will become NE-E tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch