344
FXUS63 KGRB 091726
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderating temperatures the rest of the week with readings at or
  above normal.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight into Friday, along
  with increasing winds.

- Additional rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Cold this morning, followed by moderating temperatures through the
rest of the forecast period. One more dry day, then a more active
setup starts to take shape.

Temperatures...Ongoing Frost Advisory remains in effect until
14Z/9AM. Temperatures at 4AM were mainly in the middle 30s across
the advisory area. Temperatures moderate after this morning, with
the rest of the week expecting readings AOA normal. Overnight lows
will mostly be in the 40s, with daytime highs in the upper 50s and
60s.

Precipitation...Dry weather today, then opportunities for rain
are on the horizon. A cold front and compact upper low bring a
medium to high chance (40-60%) of rain tonight through Friday
night. Coverage will initially be scattered to widespread, becoming
widely scattered Friday afternoon after the surface front passes
through. Isolated thunder is not out of the question due to a
small bit of instability, but severe storms are not expected.
Amounts will generally be around a quarter of an inch or less,
with the highest forecast totals across far northern and northeast
WI where NBM probabilities of at least a quarter inch range from
30-50%.

High pressure builds back for most of the weekend. Then, deep
troughing develops across the western CONUS late this weekend with
a strong upper jet stretching from the Four Corners Region to the
Great Lakes. This will help send a few different features through
next week which could bring rain. First, with a cold front Sunday
night into Monday, followed by a low pressure system during the
midweek, but models are not set on exact timing and specifics this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions expected until late tonight/Friday morning, when
MVFR ceilings impact NC/C WI. Showers and a few storms arrive
after midnight in NC/C WI, reach the eastern TAF sites late
tonight, then exit most of the forecast area by midday Friday.
Confidence is too low to include storms at any of the TAF sites at
this point.

Light to moderate SE-S winds prevail this afternoon and early
tonight, then become S-SW and a bit gusty overnight into early
Friday. Winds increase and turn W-NW as a cold front moves
through Friday morning.

LLWS overspreads the region from west to east overnight and
departs eastern WI late Friday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch