Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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689
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPGRA
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:THOMPSON R AT DAVIS CITY IA
DVSI4 12.0 20.0 24.0 | 32 25 26 | 7 5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:THOMPSON R AT TRENTON MO 1W
TTZM7 27.0 31.0 34.0 | 33 36 45 | 10 20 20 | <5 7 8
:GRAND R AT PATTONSBURG MO 2S
PATM7 25.0 30.0 32.0 | 18 60 69 | 10 50 58 | 6 40 43
:GRAND R AT GALLATIN MO
GAZM7 26.0 33.0 39.0 | 38 60 70 | 14 17 21 | 5 8 8
:GRAND R AT CHILLICOTHE MO 3S
CHZM7 24.0 28.0 35.0 | 57 71 77 | 35 62 69 | 22 35 38
:GRAND R AT SUMNER MO 2SW
SNZM7 26.0 28.0 40.0 | 77 84 84 | 73 82 82 | <5 9 9
:GRAND R AT BRUNSWICK MO 1W
BRNM7 19.0 27.0 33.0 | 48 74 79 | 6 23 26 | <5 9 9
:S FK CHARITON R AT PROMISE CITY IA 6NW
PRMI4 25.0 28.0 31.0 | 5 7 7 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CHARITON R AT CHARITON IA 5SSE
CHTI4 19.5 26.0 29.0 | 9 11 11 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CHARITON R AT MOULTON IA 5W
MOLI4 36.0 37.0 38.0 | 6 8 8 | <5 5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:CHARITON R AT NOVINGER MO
NVZM7 20.0 23.0 26.0 | 36 42 39 | 25 28 27 | 13 18 20
:CHARITON R AT PRAIRIE HILL MO 2NW
PRIM7 15.0 19.0 21.0 | 64 72 74 | 28 33 34 | 19 16 17
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:THOMPSON R
DVSI4 1.9/ 3.9/ 6.3/ 14.3/ 13.8/ 18.1/ 21.3/
TTZM7 11.8/ 16.3/ 20.4/ 29.9/ 28.3/ 31.0/ 33.5/
:GRAND R
PATM7 3.5/ 3.6/ 8.8/ 23.2/ 21.3/ 30.2/ 36.0/
GAZM7 5.5/ 6.8/ 15.0/ 30.5/ 29.6/ 33.5/ 38.1/
CHZM7 6.4/ 10.6/ 21.5/ 35.4/ 32.5/ 38.6/ 40.4/
SNZM7 9.1/ 15.5/ 27.0/ 34.0/ 33.8/ 35.9/ 38.2/
BRNM7 5.1/ 8.0/ 16.1/ 21.4/ 20.4/ 23.2/ 30.7/
:S FK CHARITON R
PRMI4 5.0/ 10.1/ 13.8/ 22.7/ 22.1/ 22.9/ 25.3/
:CHARITON R
CHTI4 9.1/ 13.5/ 15.8/ 18.4/ 17.8/ 19.1/ 21.5/
MOLI4 20.0/ 22.1/ 26.6/ 33.3/ 33.0/ 34.6/ 36.7/
NVZM7 1.1/ 3.2/ 10.6/ 25.1/ 22.7/ 26.5/ 29.6/
PRIM7 2.4/ 8.4/ 13.3/ 20.9/ 20.2/ 23.0/ 24.0/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:THOMPSON R
DVSI4 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.1/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/
TTZM7 11.0/ 10.8/ 10.6/ 9.8/ 9.9/ 9.6/ 8.9/
:GRAND R
PATM7 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/
GAZM7 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 3.8/
CHZM7 5.6/ 5.3/ 5.1/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 3.6/
SNZM7 8.7/ 8.2/ 8.1/ 7.4/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 6.9/
BRNM7 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/
:S FK CHARITON R
PRMI4 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.7/
:CHARITON R
CHTI4 4.4/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.7/
MOLI4 19.0/ 18.9/ 18.7/ 18.7/ 18.7/ 18.7/ 18.7/
NVZM7 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/
PRIM7 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/
.END
$$