455
FXUS63 KGLD 022327
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
527 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern Thursday through Saturday with high
  chances for precipitation (rain and snow) and below normal
  temperatures.

- Very low chance (~10%) for 2-3 inches of snow around the Tri-
  State border area tomorrow afternoon.

- About a 35-40% chance blowing snow will impact travel
  Saturday morning.

- Dry, warming trend expected to start Sunday and last into at
  least the middle of the next workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Current observations show an upper trough center roughly over
Southern Nevada with a shortwave trough moving northeast through the
Plains. At the surface, the low pressure system that moved through
the area yesterday is moving through Iowa to the northeast with the
pressure gradient weakening as it move further away. For the
remainder of today, winds should slowly lower from southwest to
northeast with gusts decreasing from 35-40 mph down to around 20 mph
later in the afternoon. Temperatures are still expected to warm into
the 50s and low 60s with mostly sunny skies until later in the
afternoon. 700-500mb moisture is then forecast to move through the
area and increase cloud cover and maybe allow for a few sprinkles or
very light showers.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s and
30s as cloud cover clears and winds become mostly calm in the weaker
pressure gradient. Temperatures may be higher than forecast if the
southerly low level flow kicks in a bit faster and brings in higher
dewpoints. Lows would then likely be in the 30s.

Tomorrow begins another round of active weather as another shortwave
moves through the larger trough and brings a low pressure system
through the area from the south later in the day. This is forecast
to bring plenty of lift and moisture into the area as the day goes
on. Skies are forecast to be mostly cloudy to cloudy which will help
keep temperatures in the 30s and 40s along with precipitation that
falls. Rain is forecast to begin developing during the morning
hours, but be more widespread by the afternoon hour as the northern
part of the surface low nears the area. Liquid amounts remain
forecast around 0.10 to 0.50 inches for the entire day.

There are two low chance hazards to keep an eye out for. The first
is the possibility for snow. If temperatures do manage to cool into
the twenties tonight (mainly around Eastern Colorado) and the low
moves in quickly enough during the morning, temperatures may not be
able to warm much above freezing with dewpoints also in the upper
twenties. This could allow for a rate driven change into snow.
Though it would likely be a wet snow, the forecast liquid amounts
could allow for as much as 3 inches during the day for locales
around the Tri-State border. Similar to recent events, the snow
would likely melt quickly and have difficulty sticking to roadways.
The other potential hazard favors locales along and south of I-70.
Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hour, especially if
the low moves close enough that there could be some dry air that
gives breaks in the clouds and allows daytime heating to add some
instability. With the effective and low level shear forecast to be
around 40 and 20 kts respectively, there is the possibility for a
stronger storm or two to develop that could produce some small hail.
The actual hazard is that the low ceilings and potential low level
shear could actually allow for a quick tornado, especially if a low
level convergence zone can develop and form a boundary in the warmer
sector. Overall, the chances are fairly low for hazardous weather,
but it will be worth watching to see how this low advances. Snow
greater than 2" has a 10% chance, tornado chance is around 1-2%.

Tomorrow night, the low is forecast to become a bit more elongated
and weaker which should lower the forcing available for
precipitation. Still, chances for rain and snow will continue
through the night, but likely with less accumulation. Temperatures
are forecast to generally be in the 30s and 40s with the moist air
keeping dewpoints higher and the cloud cover inhibiting radiational
cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The long term remains forecast to be active with chances for rain
and snow to start the weekend, followed by drier and warming
conditions at the end of the weekend and going into next week.

Guidance remains in pretty good agreement that the upper pattern
will start with the large trough/cut-off low near Four Corners
region while a trough in the main flow to the north swings through
the Northern Plains. For Friday, this is going to help keep the area
along the pressure gradient with a smaller surface low center moving
either through Southern Kansas or Oklahoma. The closer the low is to
the area, the better the chance for continued precipitation, though
either solution would give the area some precipitation. There is
only about a 10 to 20% chance that the area doesn`t see
precipitation during the day. In spite of the cloud cover and colder
air mass trying to push in from the north, temperatures should start
above freezing with dewpoints forecast to be in the mid 30s to the
40s. This will keep precipitation as rain to start the day while the
low moves near the area. Temperatures should stay in the 40s unless
the cloud cover breaks in which case highs could reach the low 50s.

Late in the day Friday and into Saturday, the pressure gradient will
likely increase as the colder air mass continues to try and move
into the area with the main trough swinging through the Plains. This
should increase winds from out of the north and allow for speeds
around 15-25 mph and gusts around 25-40 mph. This could pose a
problem if the smaller low doesn`t move away quick enough and the
area is still having decent precipitation. As the colder air mass
moves in, temperatures should drop below freezing and allow for any
precipitation to transition to snow. As currently forecast, the snow
would be light and intermittent which would pose more nuisance
problems. If the precipitation remained fairly steady or heavy, then
there could be concerns for very low visibility and whiteouts with
blowing snow. Current chance remains around 35-40% as the ensemble
spreads are favoring a faster easterly track which would lower the
intensity of precipitation for the area. Still, would have to be
cautious as the trough over the Four Corners will also begin to move
east and could bring some more lift to the area. The current track
now favors most of it staying south which would give us light
intermittent precipitation Saturday. Highs on Saturday are forecast
to be in the 40s.

Sunday and Monday are forecast to see the area transitions to
northwest flow aloft as a ridge pushes in to the Western United
States and then the Plains. This will likely allow the area to warm
and see dry conditions. Highs would likely warm back into the 60s
with lows generally in the 20s and 30s depending on how dry it got
at the surface. Tuesday may also see dry and warm conditions, but
long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of another trough
moving through and bringing a system to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy winds will
decline over the next two to maybe three hours, becoming light.
Thursday morning winds will be from the east, which should
coincide with the lower cloud deck moving up from the south.
Rainfall may be moving in with the IFR ceiling Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JTL