155
FXUS63 KGLD 220342
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
842 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a gradual warming trend through Saturday, with above
  normal daytime temperatures for the majority of the area.

- Holiday travel could be impacted by some precipitation across
  the area next Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned for further
  updates.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Looking at the latest long term guidance, mainly the GFS(18z
run)/ECMWF(12z run) for the holiday travel timeframe (next Wednesday
through Friday), it still looks like chances for precipitation are
possible for the Tri State area.

From the latest 18z run of the GFS, there is a 500mb shortwave that
works into the central Rockies by 12z Wednesday, tracking southeast
into the Tri State area Wednesday night into Thursday morning before
exiting. This will be followed by NW flow aloft Thursday afternoon
into Friday.

Comparing this run to the 12z run of the ECMWF, the same shortwave
takes a more easterly track through the central Rockies into the
Plains region across the Tri State region. The shortwave does move
slower, persisting into the day Thursday, exiting by 00z Friday.
This could be followed by a quick moving shortwave overnight
Thursday. NW flow aloft begins for the Fri-Fri night timeframe.

At the surface, both models do carry a surface low ahead of the
500mb shortwave, both south of the CWA. The GFS does bring more N/NW
flow to the area, while the ECMWF carries more easterly, upslope
flow and is evident in the QPF potential across the CWA. Both precip
spreads, work from north to south, but is more evident in the ECMWF
model run. 850mb temps are colder for the Wed-Fri timeframe in the
ECMWF w/ -2c to -6c versus a few degrees warmer in the GFS. Precip
would start earlier with the ECMWF around 06z-12z Wednesday versus 6
hrs later with the GFS.

The latest CPC(Climate Prediction Center) 6-10 day outlook continues
to show above normal chances for precipitation. Forecasted highs
Wednesday and Thursday are set to range in the 40s with lows in the
teens and 20s.

Given the uncertainty in the track/timing of the upcoming holiday
system, the going forecast has stayed close to the latest
NBM(National Blend of Models) guidance keeping a 15-30% chance for
precip, the best chances occurs Wednesday night. There is the
potential for light snow at night and a rain/snow mix during the
day.

Continue to monitor the evolution of the system that could impact
holiday travel in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Synoptic Overview: An upper level ridge, presently situated
over the Rockies and High Plains, will extend/expand eastward
to the Mississippi River Valley (Tonight-Friday).. as an upper
level low, presently centered over the OH Valley, progresses
east toward the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast.

Sensible Weather: Expect benign weather characterized by mostly
clear skies, light winds and a warming trend.. with above
average highs in the 60s (Fri-Sat).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Long range guidance indicates that a more active synoptic
pattern will evolve next week as the core of the mid-latitude
westerlies shifts to lower latitudes in the form of a strong
/100-150 knot/ `coast-to-coast` jet (Sun-Mon).. followed by a
transition to cyclonic flow aloft (Tue-Wed). Expect below
average temperatures and above average chances for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 840 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high
pressure slowly meanders through the area. Winds for KGLD,
south-southwest around 10kts. Periods of light/variable from
09z Fri-00z Sat. Winds for KMCK, light/variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...JN