128
FXUS63 KGLD 031723
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1123 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of storms forecast to sweep the region Friday afternoon
  into evening. Marginal risk of severe weather with the main
  threat being strong to damaging winds.

- On and off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
  into next week.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Today...

Breezy day across the Plains. Remnant shortwave vortex lifting NE
over the 4-corners region ahead of a set of trof axes and attendant
shortwaves ejecting E through the N Pacific jet. Enhancement of the
SW to NE pressure gradient throughout the atmospheric column along
with the gradual deepening of a lee cyclone immediately E of the
Rockies. Increasing S winds drawing N deep sub-tropical moisture,
notably from FWD / OUN where 12z soundings exhibit a near-saturated
column with +2 inch precipitable waters. Low to mid level moisture
continually advecting N, as can be seen via visible satellite, ever
so slightly cooling the column. With daytime mixing well up to 5-10
kft along with expected midday to afternoon scattered cumulus, we
should be a degree or two cooler than yesterdays highs, forecast
today around the low 90s. Surface dewpoints maintained around 60
should keep minimum relative humidity above 30 percent. The main
impact today will be gusty S winds. Mix down of faster momentum with
deep layer mixing should yield sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph
with gusts around 25 mph, as high as around 35 mph possible.

Tonight...

Increasing low clouds. With surface temperatures cooling resulting
in the boundary layer decoupling it`ll still remain breezy at the
surface. But stronger winds aloft will continue to advect moisture N
and subsequently pooling beneath the anticipated inversion we will
likely see the development of low stratus into the morning hours.
With the S winds and developing cloud deck, the blanket across the
region should keep lows mild with values around the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Beginning Friday, afternoon into evening thunderstorm chances are
forecast to persist into the following week. Persistent N Pacific H3
jet wave breaking along the CA coast at times promoting development
of the 4-corners monsoonal high. Expecting the maintenance of both
heat and humidity upsloping N across the plains with precipitable
waters at least +1 inch. With weak wave energy through the expected
broad near-zonal pattern will need to monitor for the promotion of
surface frontal boundaries along with mid to upper level winds to
determine if any convection is possible.

Friday looks to be the best chance with a weak cold front sweeping
through the region. Timing and outcomes remaining uncertain at this
moment. Roughly 1-2k J/kg CAPE within W/NW 0-6 km shear getting up
to 25-30 kts, enough to promote updraft maintenance. But it is some
question of the environment remaining capped into late and storms
developing further E, more so into evening as models indicate that
with the low-level jet increasing and impinging on the sweeping cold
front that we see MCS development across the central plains. An
expectation that CAMs will paint a better picture over the next 24
hours and provide us higher confidence.

Over the weekend into next week is looking more of a wash, rinse,
repeat cycle as the 4-corners monsoonal high develops along the N-
periphery of which continued energy seemingly promotes thunderstorm
development along the front range of CO that translates E into NW KS
with the mean W/NW wind pattern. Each day will require monitoring of
forcing mechanisms that can promote lift in an expected maintained
environment of heat and humidity across our region. Instability and
shear are largely uncertain so convective modes and exact outcomes
are truly unknown. Things could get complicated even from any storm
cold pool outflows. An eye on heavy rain potential as well. Highs
around 90, lows around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR today with S winds around 15 kts, gusts around 25 kts. FEW-
SCT050 already developing for KGLD. Expect later-day development
for KMCK. Overnight, low stratus developing as S winds continue
around 10 to 15 kts sustained. Higher confidence MVFR CIGs but
can`t rule out the possibility of IFR, especially towards early
morning. TSRA developing across the front range closer to 18z
Friday, sweeping KGLD / KMCK after 18z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Sipprell