070
FXUS63 KGLD 140855
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area
  Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70
  where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph
  gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over
  portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners
early this morning will slowly/steadily track east across the
central Rockies (tonight) and Central Plains (Wed). An
associated lee cyclone will deepen over eastern CO and western
KS today. The lee cyclone will broaden and weaken as it
progresses eastward into central Kansas tonight and E-ENE into
eastern Kansas and Nebraska on Wed.

Today: Still a challenging forecast. A tightening MSLP to 850
mb height gradient and deep vertical mixing (up to 550-500 mb,
~12-14 KFT AGL) on the east and southeast periphery of the
deepening lee cyclone will foster noticeably stronger SW winds
over portions of the area, mainly east and south of Goodland
during the mid-late afternoon and early evening when/where GFS,
HRRR and RAP forecast soundings indicate that ~25-35 knot SW
flow will be present throughout the mixed layer. Current
guidance suggests that relatively stronger (~35-45 knot) SW flow
will largely be confined along/south of Hwy 96 (Tribune/Leoti).
Again, the northern extent/magnitude of SW winds (and more
robust critical fire weather conditions) will highly depend on
the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, which will track
directly the NWS Goodland county warning area this aft-eve. In
this particular pattern/setup, guidance continues to indicate
that precipitation chances will be far less dependent on the
precise evolution of the lee cyclone, i.e. most, if not all, of
the Goodland CWA will thoroughly be situated within the dry
slot. Simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent
(00/06Z) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST do suggest that meager
(100-250 J/kg) high-based instability will support the
development of scattered high-based convection along the
Colorado Front Range and portions of the Palmer Divide (west of
Limon) at peak heating this afternoon. Deep SW steering flow
will, however, shephard activity toward the northeast (largely
parallel-to the Goodland CWA), limiting already-limited precip
chances to northern portions of Yuma County ~22-02Z (4-8 pm
MDT).

Tonight-Wed: Shortwave energy traversing the Colorado Front
Range may emerge in the form of a modest, compact upper low..
and an ephemeral surface-850 mb reflection.. late tonight and
early Wed morning. If this is the case, focused upper forcing
and localized low-level convergence/frontogenesis in vicinity of
the surface-850 mb low could facilitate the development of
precip/showers over portions of northeast CO between midnight
and sunrise (~06-12Z Wed). At present, convection allowing
guidance suggests that any such activity would largely be
confined to the I-76 corridor, possibly as far east as norther
Yuma County. Scattered Cu and virga (maybe a shower or two) will
accompany the upper wave as it progresses east across northwest
KS and southwest NE during the day on Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western
United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to
take place across the North-Central High Plains through the
afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high
pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and
back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to
establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the
forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry
conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to
mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single-
digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a
concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts
forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM
guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet
criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most
locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across
portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests
over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard
across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end
scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low
pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the
Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed
Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern
Colorado, around 30%.

The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the
forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across
the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored
to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the
afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions
are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward
progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of
GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which
could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions
across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central
Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold
front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along
with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front.
Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the
lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night,
with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern
Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM
guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be
measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75%
chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast
area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West
Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler
conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high
temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon.
Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday
afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the
lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance
for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday
afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado.

By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off
to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the
Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and
dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s
and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively.
Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both
Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern
Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on
Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across
Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture
return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the
25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will this evening and overnight will shift to
the WSW and increase to 10-15 knots during the mid-late
morning.. then back to the SW and further increase to 20-30
knots during the afternoon. Breezy SW to WSW winds will persist
through sunset. Winds are likely to shift to the NW or N at some
point Tuesday eve/night.. near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. A broad
low pressure system will track eastward across the Tri-State
Area on Tue. Low confidence in wind direction at the McCook
terminal. Winds may remain variable through much of the 06Z TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Apr 13 2026

Today: Expect warm/dry conditions similar to Monday but with
relatively stronger SW winds at 20-35 mph gusting to 45 mph,
strongest south and east of Goodland. The northern extent of
critical fire weather conditions will highly depend on the
precise evolution of a deepening low pressure system in eastern
Colorado today. Recent high resolution model guidance/trends
suggest that the northern extent of critical fire weather will
be along or near the I-70 corridor, where the duration of red
flag conditions will be marginal (2-3 hours). The further south
you go from I-70, the greater the magnitude and duration of red
flag conditions.

Thursday: Warmer and much drier with minimum RH readings around
8-13% and 20-30 mph S to SW winds. Much of the Tri-State Area
could see a period of red flag conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 8
    PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-
     042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent
FIRE WEATHER...Vincent