315
FXUS63 KGLD 230710
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
110 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moving through early this morning will bring a
  much needed relief to the heat.

- Scattered chances at storms are expected this afternoon and
  evening. The big severe threat looks to be east of our area,
  but the storms in our region may still produce 1 inch hail and
  60 MPH winds.

- Patchy to dense fog may form late Monday night/early Tuesday
  morning. Travel may become hazardous.

- Severe storm chances return Tuesday afternoon/evening as
  storms develop in eastern Colorado and move into our area.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Our next low is creeping into the region, as is evident of the cold
front sweeping across the CWA as I`m writing this discussion. With
the FROPA, expect winds to be notably weaker than they have been and
becoming northerly. Temperatures will obviously drop behind the cold
front, as CAA occurs with the northerly winds. This cold front may
spark some more showers behind it, hence the PoPs up to 20. Besides
a rumble of thunder or some small hail, these storms won`t do much.
Even if showers don`t form, by mid-morning, a thick cloud cover will
move in from the northwest. These clouds and the north-northeasterly
winds will keep temperatures pretty cool for areas behind the cold
front, likely capping out in the low to mid 70s, potentially upper
60s. Where the front will stall out is still a bit of an unknown.
The 500 mb features shifted a few hundred miles further north from
what we were seeing 24 hours ago, however the cold front has been a
little ahead of schedule. The front now looks to stall out on the
southeastern fringes of the CWA with very little if any of the area
in the warm sector. However, in the warm sector, temperatures will
warm into the low to mid 80s. Winds during the day may still gust
around 20 kts, mainly fueled by a high ejecting off of the Northern
Rockies and moving across the Northern Plains.

As far as convection goes, this afternoon`s severe storm potential
will be mainly firing off of the dryline, which will be east of the
cold front. The previously stalled out cold front will reverse and
become a warm front, which may set off some convection, but the
severe potential of these storms is minimal. Most likely time for
storms in our CWA, firing along the warm front, will be around 0-6Z.
Hail up to 1 inch and a few gusts up to 60 are possible, but
confidence is low they will occur. Individual storm movement will be
to the northeast at 25-50 kts, but the warm front will be moving to
the northwest. This means the area for storm development will move to
the northwest as the evening progresses, but storms will move to the
northeast.

The warm front will present a moderately interesting night tonight.
While precipitation will likely be fairly scattered, the surface
will see RH values nearing saturation with easterly winds. This
hints to the potential for fog to form, and CONSShortTest was
already picking up on dense fog across most of the area between 6
and 12Z. There is a 50% chance it will be low stratus instead of
fog, but with the setup and other models also showing some fog,
patchy fog has been added to the grids. The fog should be clear by
noon and temperatures look to warm up to the 80s Tuesday

The NAM is showing a area of enhanced vorticity across the eastern
CWA in the early afternoon Tuesday, which would certainly set off
some storms. However, it`s one of the only models that`s really
showing it, so confidence is not overly high. Majority of guidance
has the vorticity remaining to the west of the area during the day
and being pulled into the CWA by a low in the area Tuesday evening,
which gives us a fairly widespread chance at storms, potentially
severe in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Thursday will see the southwest flow begin to weaken, but
appears to be another wave coming out of Colorado in the
afternoon for shower and thunderstorm chances. Instability and
shear parameters will be marginal at best for organized
updrafts, again slightly favoring northern areas where shear
will be better. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in
the upper 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Friday through Sunday...the flow aloft weakens considerably with
a broad ridge developing across the southern CONUS. Thunderstorm
chances will be more widely scattered and less organized, mainly
diurnally driven in the typical afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the low to mid
90s and lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A cold front is approaching both TAF sites with an expected
arrival time at KGLD around 0715Z and KMCK around 0845Z. About
30-45 minutes ahead of the front, winds will start to weaken,
with the front, winds will become northwesterly before becoming
northerly. Gusts around 20-30 kts are expected with/after the
front, with the northerly winds. These winds may continue to
weaken through the rest of the night, but we do expect them to
become north-northeasterly and ceilings to drop into MVFR
conditions. There is a 10% chance KMCK could see some storms
form as the front approaches.

During the day Monday, winds will gradually become more
easterly, and by the late afternoon, they will be east-
northeasterly. Starting around 23Z, a line of storms may start
forming far enough northwest to impact the TAF sites. By 2/3Z,
we expect more widespread showers and storms across the area,
and ceilings to be around IFR heights. After 6Z, these showers
may taper off and fog forming, potentially under 1 mile, and
ceilings will likely be down to IFR, if not LIFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA