727
FXUS63 KGLD 211110
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
410 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain began to fall Thursday afternoon in the area. The rain is
  forecast to continue until Friday afternoon/evening. The bulk
  of the rain should fall overnight Thursday into Friday.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast around Sun/Mon.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Precipitation is expected to continue as forecast. Rain will persist
into the afternoon for most of the area. Precipitation will move out
of the southwestern CWA around 18-21Z, and by 0-3Z only a few
isolated showers will remain. The potential for snow in eastern
Colorado has lowered to less than a 5% chance. There is a 25-35%
chance of patchy fog in locations that are in a lull of
precipitation, and once the rain moves out of an area.

Temperatures this morning are forecast to largely remain in the in
the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures during the day will be heavily
stunted by the rain and saturated profile, likely only warming to
the low to mid 40s. Overnight tonight, temperatures are forecast to
drop below freezing for most of the CWA. This will cause some
refreeze concerns. Elevated surfaces that remain moist from the
rainfall will likely freeze overnight, leading to slick bridges,
railings, and raised ramps. Fog is not likely tonight, thanks to
westerly winds. However, on the 15% chance fog does occur, it will
likely be freezing fog, adding to the slick surfaces.

Saturday 12-21Z, there is a 5-10% chance a band of 500 mb vorticity
will provide enough lift over a moderately moistened air mass that
some sprinkles or flurries will fall across the northern CWA.
Confidence is low because the vorticity may be too weak or not form,
and a mid-level dry layer may melt out any would-be precipitation
before it reaches the ground. Temperatures look to warm to around 60
Saturday, but if cloud cover is thicker, temperatures could top out
in the mid 50s.

Saturday night, lows will cool to around freezing as we reach around
100% saturation again. Due to light south-southwesterly winds,
widespread fog is not expected. If winds become calm for at least an
hour, or moisture advection occurs overnight, fog would would have a
greater chance off occurring. Current probability of fog formation
Sunday morning is about 10%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

The focus for this part of the forecast continues to be the
precipitation chances early next week.  Models continue to come into
better agreement with this next storm system.  The four different
clusters the different model ensemble members fall into is much
closer in agreement than what was seen yesterday.  There has also
been a shift favoring the earlier lifting of the trough to the
northeast over the forecast area, which only half or so of the
members favored yesterday.  Along with this change the models have
adjusted the track slightly further west.  This shift has caused the
precipitation to start earlier Sunday, ending earlier on Monday. Dew
points continue to remain high enough to keep the precipitation as
rain.  Dew points fall below freezing behind the storm system; but
precipitation should be ending by that point anyway.  The better
chances for rain, and higher rainfall amounts continue to be east of
the forecast area where there will be higher instability present.

Behind this storm system another quick moving storm system moves
through the Plains.  Models have shifted the track of this storm
system south.  This has caused winds for Monday and Tuesday to be
stronger; winds may increase a bit more, especially if the storm
system shifts further south.  This storm system is still too far
north for the forecast area to receive precipitation as it moves
through.

An upper level ridge will begin to move into the Plains toward mid
week.  Models have strengthened the ridge.  This has caused
temperatures to warm behind the two storm systems, with readings
closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

KMCK sits on the western edge of the precipitation shield.
Locations to the northeast and south of KMCK have IFR ceilings
and MVFR visibilities, but KMCK has been reporting VFR
conditions for the past hour. With this, confidence in the TAF
at KMCK is low and MVFR/IFR conditions could return, hence the
PROB30 for the first few hours. We`re not certain if the IFR
ceilings will return later today at KMCK.

Near KGLD, recent radar trends are showing the precipitation to
the north and south gradually drying up, which could lead to a
break in the subIFR conditions sooner than forecast. If that
doesn`t happen, current conditions will hold through most of the
afternoon.

Both sites are forecast to return to MVFR/VFR conditions around
0Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA